Rep. Mimi Walters is hopeful about Republicans keeping their California House seats. Photo: Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call

California Republicans like Rep. Mimi Walters are feeling more hopeful about holding onto their seats come November, reports Politico's Rachel Bade. They're banking on President Trump's rising approval rating (42% across the U.S.) and their work to repeal the state's gas tax.

Yes, but: A closer look at California's politics by party affiliation show potential signs of trouble for the GOP.

California Republicans' warning signs:

  • The president's approval rating in California was just 29% throughout 2017.
  • The number of registered Republicans in the state has reached an all-time low (25%), per data from the CA secretary of state. And Orange County's registered Republicans have consistently declined to 37% from 43% in 2010.
  • Half of California residents are non-Hispanic white, less than the country's demographics, per Gallup. And only 47% of residents belong to a church or synagogue, compared to 56% of adults across the U.S.

What they're saying: Democrats argue California's shifting demographics (particularly in places like Orange County, Walters' district) and liberal attitude, as well as the GOP tax law's effects on state and local deductions, won't make it easy for Republicans in the fall.

The other side: Rep. Walters maintains there is still reason to be hopeful. “I got 37,000 more votes than President Trump did," she told Politico. "That means that the people in the 45th district identify with the policies that I support and support me because I’m in line with what they believe in.”

Go deeper: Republicans are nearly outnumbered by independents in California

Go deeper

Trump commutes Roger Stone's sentence

Roger Stone arriving at his sentencing hearing on Feb. 20. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

President Trump on Friday evening commuted the sentence of his longtime associate Roger Stone, according to two senior administration officials. Stone in February was sentenced to 40 months in prison for crimes including obstruction, witness tampering and making false statements to Congress.

Why it matters: The controversial move brings an abrupt end to the possibility of Stone spending time behind bars. He had been scheduled to report to prison on July 14.

Updated 7 hours ago - Health

Which states have set single-day coronavirus records this week

Data: COVID Tracking Project and state health department data compiled by Axios; Map: Danielle Alberti and Naema Ahmed/Axios

13 states this week surpassed records set just last week for their highest number of coronavirus infections in a single day, according to the COVID Tracking Project and state health department data. 16 states in total reported new highs.

The big picture: The United States' alarming rise in coronavirus cases isn't just due to increased testing — particularly where the number of cases has grown fastest over the last month, Axios' Andrew Witherspoon and Caitlin Owens report.

Updated 8 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 6:30 p.m. ET: 12,389,660 — Total deaths: 557,279 — Total recoveries — 6,830,596Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 6:30 p.m. ET: 3,169,611 — Total deaths: 133,885 — Total recoveries: 983,185 — Total tested: 38,856,341Map.
  3. Public health: The reality of the coronavirus bites.
  4. Trade: Trump says he's no longer considering phase-two trade deal with China because the pandemic damaged the two countries' relationship.
  5. 🎧 Podcast: Rural America has its own coronavirus problem.