Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Axios on your phone

Get breaking news and scoops on the go with the Axios app.

Download for free.

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios NW Arkansas

Stay up-to-date on the most important and interesting stories affecting NW Arkansas, authored by local reporters

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Illustration: Sarah Grillo / Axios

Moderate candidates led Democrats to two unlikely special election victories: first Doug Jones in the Alabama Senate race, and now Conor Lamb in a Pennsylvania House race. At the same time, the progressive wing of the party is energized by Trump's election and even attacking fellow Democrats who they consider to be too moderate.

Why it matters: There's always tension in both parties between those at the center and those on the more extreme ends of the political spectrum. But this year there's more at stake for the Democrats, who are trying to retake the House of Representatives while navigating this ideological war.

Why the left still thinks 2018 is their year:
  • Progressive Democrats argue that more liberal candidates can win close races by bringing out voters who haven't had the chance to vote for their ideas — no Democrat had challenged Tim Murphy, the former Republican congressman whose seat Lamb will fill, in his last two elections.
  • That convinces some to believe that maybe these districts aren't as Republican after all. "Many districts appear red because no progressive has run there," said Amanda Litman, co-founder of Run For Something, which has far-left candidates running in places like Oklahoma and Kansas.
  • Rita Bosworth, executive director of Sister District, which helps Democratic candidates win state elections, says progressive candidates offer "bold and refreshing solutions, even if voters don't agree with them across the board."
  • Billionaire donor Tom Steyer, who's leading a campaign to impeach Trump — over the objections of party leaders — thinks moderate Democrats are too incremental while progressives adopt a more visionary approach.
    • Some, like Adam Green and Sarah Badawi of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, think Democrats' path to the majority is through the districts Hillary Clinton won plus those Trump won by single digits. "There's no excuse for running a conservative Democrat as opposed to someone who will advance a progressive vision," said Green.

The Trump factor: "In this type of climate, it’s less about who you are and more about why you’re running and your willingness to stand up to Trump," said Zac McCrary, a Democratic pollster who has worked with congressional races across the country. "Democratic voters want to know their candidate gets it and is going to be a very active watch dog on Trump."

Why the moderates think they're the answer:
  • Rural, blue-collars areas are the "path to the majority," said Rep. Cheri Bustos of Illinois, and those areas are more likely to support more moderate Democrats.
    • That view is reflected in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Blue Dog Democrats, a coalition of moderate Democrats formed in 1995, working closely together this cycle for the first time since 2006.
  • The improbable Doug Jones win in Alabama is a key example. Paul Maslin, a Democratic strategist who worked as a pollster on Jones' Senate campaign, said Jones focused his messaging on finding common ground with "the middle of the electorate in Alabama who supported Trump or some Republican in the past."
  • There's some concern among moderate Democrats who see how progressive candidates are successfully challenging their preferred candidates across the country. The argument, some say, is that while some progressives might be able to win a primary, there's no way they can win a general election against a Republican in a red district.
"They clearly have never run races before in tough districts," said Kristen Hawn, who works with the Blue Dog Democrats as a political strategist. "This pie in the sky, rainbows-and-butterflies-and-unicorns world they live in ... It just doesn't work that way."
The battles to watch:
  • Moderate Democratic senators who support the Republican bill to undo some of the Dodd-Frank banking reforms (like Jon Tester, Joe Manchin, Claire McCaskill and Heidi Heitkamp) are taking heat from Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
  • Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski — a Blue Dog Democrat co-chair who is anti-abortion, voted against the Affordable Care Act and has served for 13 years — is facing a serious primary challenger in first-time candidate Marie Newman. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Reps. Jan Schakowsky and Luis Gutiérrez have endorsed Newman.
  • A progressive coalition launched a five-figure ad against Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan after he expressed support for lowering the corporate tax rate.
  • Jay Hulings in TX-23, a more moderate candidate, lost to Gina Ortiz Jones, who is supported by EMILY's List and would be the first lesbian and Filipina-American to hold a U.S. House seat in Texas.
    • The DCCC openly opposed Laura Moser, a more progressive candidate in TX-07, who finished in the top two in her primary.

The bottom line: Moderate Democrats could help the party win the House in November, but face opposition from people in the party that want to be more stridently anti-Trump.

Go deeper

Updated 3 hours ago - Sports

Olympics dashboard

🚨: Japan's Naomi Osaka lights Olympic cauldron; Photos

👻: How the no-spectator Olympics could affect the athletes

🇺🇸: "What an honor it is to watch you soar," first lady tells U.S. Olympians

🌏: Meet the underdogs from Latin America

🥇: The six new sports at Tokyo 2020

💉 About 100 U.S. Olympic athletes are unvaccinated

✍️ Axios at the Olympics: What it's like inside the opening ceremony

Go deeper: Full Axios coverage

Senate Democrats demand answers on FBI's Kavanaugh probe

Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Senate Democrats are demanding that the FBI hand over "all records and communications" related to the FBI tip line set up to investigate Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh when he was a nominee in 2018.

Why it matters: The ask comes after the FBI revealed it received more than 4,500 tips about Kavanaugh when he was awaiting Senate confirmation amid sexual assault allegations. Only the most "relevant" of these tips were forwarded to the Trump White House.

Chip relief on the horizon

Illustration: Sarah Grillo

Good news: The worst of the chip supply crunch might be near.

The other side: Here's the bad news... CEOs say chips totally flowing like normal is still a ways out.