Jul 10, 2018

Democrats' Senate dream slips away

To win the Senate, Democrats need to keep all 10 seats they're defending in states that President Trump won in 2016 — plus pick up two more seats.

Why it matters: That's not happening. A new Axios/SurveyMonkey poll of key states shows Dems would lose three of those red-state seats while picking up two GOP seats — still short of the majority.

*Incumbent. Data: Survey Monkey poll of 12,677 registered voters from June 11 to July 2; Chart: Chris Canipe/Axios

Why it matters: It's looking nearly impossible for Democrats to take back the Senate. So the stakes are even higher for them to win the House if they're going to have any kind of congressional check on President Trump.

The state of play: The polls shows three Democratic senators are poised to lose their seats to Republicans — Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Bill Nelson in Florida and Joe Donnelly in Indiana.

  • Be smart... Democrats would pick up seats in Arizona and Nevada, while Republicans keep their seat in Tennessee.

Democratic bright spots: Sens. Joe Manchin in West Virginia and Jon Tester in Montana were losing by double digits to a generic GOP candidate last time we polled these states in February. They're now leading by double digits.

Our data includes an expected range under six different scenarios that measure potential turnout, giving a more complete picture of each race.

  • Even under the most optimistic scenarios for Democrats across all 13 states, they would still lose the same seats by a range of one percentage point to 14 percentage points.
  • Under Republicans' most bullish forecast, they would actually pick up six seats, the four mentioned above plus Ohio and Missouri.

The bottom line: Democrats face long odds to take back the Senate.

Go deeper: How the Senate races look with multiple voter assumptions.

Go deeper

Rural America set to lose political power after 2020 census

Ottawa, Illinois, 2019. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images

In most of the 10 states that will likely lose a House seat due to reapportionment beginning in 2022, current demographic trends are poised to shift political power from rural counties to metropolitan counties, according to an analysis by The Hill's Reid Wilson.

Why it matters: Census counts are crucial for determining political representation in the House, and minor changes in population can alter a state's power in Congress for a decade.

Go deeperArrowJan 5, 2020

The political risk of overturning the ACA

Data: Urban Institute Health Policy Center; Note: Uninsured rate is among the nonelderly population. Map: Danielle Alberti/Axios

Swing states and red states stand to lose the most if the courts ultimately throw out the Affordable Care Act, according to a new analysis by the Urban Institute.

Why it matters: President Trump and Republican attorneys general could pay a steep political price if they succeed in their quest to kill the law.

Go deeperArrowDec 20, 2019 - Health

Biden deploys diverse surrogates ahead of the Iowa caucuses

Biden addresses voters in Iowa. Photo: Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

Joe Biden's campaign is sending Hispanic, black, and Asia-Pacific-American members of Congress to Iowa next week as surrogates to help him make his closing argument to voters before the February caucuses.

The state of play: One of those surrogates, Rep. Ami Bera of California, tells Axios he'll focus on two points: Reminding voters how Biden campaigned in 2018 for several freshman Democrats who flipped GOP seats, and making the case that Biden's health care plan is better than rivals'.

Go deeperArrowJan 9, 2020