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Go deeper: How the Senate races look with multiple voter assumptions

A new Axios/SurveyMonkey poll shows how each party would perform in 13 Senate races under six different scenarios that measure potential turnout.

*Incumbent; Data: Survey Monkey poll of 12,677 registered voters from June 11 to July 2, 2018. Poll methodology; Chart: Chris Canipe/Axios

Go deeper with analysis from SurveyMonkey: "For now, the most consistent finding from our results is that the Democratic candidates do best either among all registered voters or among those who say they are either absolutely or at least somewhat certain to vote."

  • "Republicans do consistently best in a probabilistic scenario based on modeling the 2014 election, not surprising since that election featured a considerable GOP turnout advantage. Beyond that, the outlook on how much Democrats might benefit from turnout remains hazy."