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A new Axios/SurveyMonkey poll shows how each party would perform in 13 Senate races under six different scenarios that measure potential turnout.

Expand chart
*Incumbent; Data: Survey Monkey poll of 12,677 registered voters from June 11 to July 2, 2018. Poll methodology; Chart: Chris Canipe/Axios

Go deeper with analysis from SurveyMonkey: "For now, the most consistent finding from our results is that the Democratic candidates do best either among all registered voters or among those who say they are either absolutely or at least somewhat certain to vote."

  • "Republicans do consistently best in a probabilistic scenario based on modeling the 2014 election, not surprising since that election featured a considerable GOP turnout advantage. Beyond that, the outlook on how much Democrats might benefit from turnout remains hazy."

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Updated 1 min ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Vaccines: Key information about the effective COVID-19 vaccines — Oxford and AstraZeneca's vaccine won't just go to rich countries.
  2. Health: U.S. coronavirus hospitalizations keep breaking recordsWhy we're numb to 250,000 deaths.
  3. World: England to impose stricter regional systemU.S. hotspots far outpacing Europe's — Portugal to ban domestic travel for national holidays.
  4. Economy: The biggest pandemic labor market drags.
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Michigan board certifies Biden's win

Poll workers count absentee ballots in Detroit, Michigan on Nov. 4. Photo: Salwan Georges/The Washington Post via Getty Images

The Michigan Board of State Canvassers certified the state's election results on Monday, making President-elect Joe Biden's win there official and granting him the state's 16 electoral votes.

Why it matters: Republican Party leaders had unsuccessfully appealed to delay the official certification, amid the Trump campaign's failed legal challenges in key swing states.

Biden to nominate Janet Yellen as Treasury secretary

Photo: Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images

President-elect Joe Biden is preparing to nominate former Fed Chair Janet Yellen as his Treasury Secretary, four people familiar with the matter tell Axios.

Why it matters: Yellen, 74, will bring instant economic celebrity to Biden’s team and, if confirmed, she will not only be the first female Treasury Secretary but also the first person to have held all three economic power positions in the federal government: the chair of Council of Economic Advisers, the chair of Federal Reserve and the Treasury Secretary.