Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Stocks roared higher on Tuesday after news that some Chinese imports would be spared from a 10% tariff increase the Trump administration plans to impose on Sept. 1, but the bond market was unimpressed and continued to push yields lower, tipping a strong recession indicator.

Why it matters: Bonds have been accurate in predicting Fed policy and U.S. economic indicators all year. Tuesday's market action shows investors believe the damage has already been done to the world economy — and that this temporary respite in the trade war is likely too little, too late.

The big picture: The bond market has consistently priced in the negative effects of the trade war, triggering recession alarms this year that have been accurate since World War II.

The stock market, on the other hand, has rallied on any good news about the trade war and renewed communication between China and the U.S., which has generally proved fleeting and short-lived.

What they're saying: "Talking is good, but there has been a lot of talk since Trump and Xi met in Buenos Aires last November, and not much progress," Lou Brien, market strategist at DRW Trading, tells Axios in an email.

  • "The high level of uncertainty has been quite negative for business planning and spending on capital expenditures, which has in turn caused several important indicators to roll over, such as the ISM indexes, Industrial Production and orders for Durable Goods."

Catch-up quick: Global economic data has consistently worsened in 2019, with Japan and 3 of Europe's 4 largest economies — Germany, Italy and the U.K. — heading toward recession by year-end, and China growing at its slowest pace in 27 years.

  • Central banks around the world have started cutting interest rates en masse, and policy is the most dovish it has been at any time since the global financial crisis, according to data from Goldman Sachs.
  • Stock investors are viewing the policy shift as evidence that growth will pick up and underpin a rally, while the bond market sees it as a sign the economy is in peril.

What to watch: The inverted 3-month/10-year yield curve, which most recently touched -35 basis points, and the 2-year/10-year inversion have preceded every recession in the past 70 years.

Go deeper

Trump signs bill to prevent government shutdown

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnel and President Trump arrives at the U.S. Capitol in March. Photo: Samuel Corum/Getty Images

President Trump signed a bill to extend current levels of government funding into early December, White House spokesperson Judd Deere confirmed early Thursday.

Driving the news: The Senate on Tuesday passed the legislation to fund the federal government through Dec. 11, by a vote of 84-10. The move averts a government shutdown before the Nov. 3 election, though funding did expire briefly before the bill was signed.

Editor's note: This is a developing news story. Please check back for updates.

Updated 30 mins ago - Science

In photos: Deadly wildfires devastate California's wine country

The Shady Fire ravages a home as it approaches Santa Rosa in Napa County, California, on Sept. 28. The blaze is part of the massive Glass Fire Complex, which has razed over 51,620 acres at 2% containment. Photo: Samuel Corum/Agence France-Presse/AFP via Getty Images

More than 1700 firefighters are battling 26 major blazes across California, including in the heart of the wine country, where one mega-blaze claimed the lives of three people and forced thousands of others to evacuate this week.

The big picture: More than 8,100 wildfires have burned across a record 39 million-plus acres, killing 29 people and razing almost 7,900 structures in California this year, per Cal Fire. Just like the deadly blazes of 2017, the wine country has become a wildfires epicenter. Gov. Gavin Newsom has declared a state of emergency in Napa, Sonoma, and Shasta counties.

Updated 1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 12:30 a.m. ET: 33,880,896 — Total deaths: 1,012,964 — Total recoveries: 23,551,663Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 12:30 a.m. ET: 7,232,823 — Total deaths: 206,887 — Total recoveries: 2,840,688 — Total tests: 103,939,667Map.
  3. Education: School-aged children now make up 10% of all U.S COVID-19 cases.
  4. Health: Moderna says its coronavirus vaccine won't be ready until 2021
  5. Travel: CDC: 3,689 COVID-19 or coronavirus-like cases found on cruise ships in U.S. waters — Airlines begin mass layoffs while clinging to hope for federal aid
  6. Business: Real-time data show economy's rebound slowing but still going.
  7. Sports: Steelers-Titans NFL game delayed after coronavirus outbreak.