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Expand chart
Adapted from a Goldman Sachs chart; Chart: Axios Visuaals

Investors are pricing in a 100% chance the Fed cuts rates at its next meeting in September after Monday's market carnage, joining central banks around the globe that are providing more stimulus to their respective economies.

Why it matters: While the prospect of more interest rate cuts had buoyed the stock market going into last week's Fed meeting, Monday's sell-off showed that investors no longer view that as enough to sustain current price levels.

What's happening: Initially seen as a cautionary pause, the world's central banks have clearly returned to a path of lower interest rates that has not been seen since the global financial crisis.

  • More than half of the world's central banks are expected to cut interest rates in the third quarter, while 0% of central banks are expected to raise rates in the third or fourth quarters, data compiled by Goldman Sachs shows.

What they're saying:

  • "With global growth running at a below-trend rate of 2.75% — down from about 4% a year ago — a synchronized tilt towards easing looks like a natural response to a weaker outlook," Goldman Sachs research analysts wrote in a recent note to clients.

Go deeper

Caitlin Owens, author of Vitals
4 hours ago - Health

Biden taps ex-FDA chief to lead Operation Warp Speed amid rollout of COVID plan

Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

President-elect Joe Biden has picked former FDA chief David Kessler to lead Operation Warp Speed, a day after unveiling a nearly $2 trillion pandemic relief plan that includes $400 billion for directly combatting the virus.

Why it matters: Biden's transition team said Kessler has been advising the president-elect since the beginning of the pandemic, and hopes his involvement will help accelerate vaccination, the New York Times reports. Operation Warp Speed's current director, Moncef Slaoui, will stay on as a consultant.

The case of the missing relief money

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

A chunk of stimulus payments is missing in action, thanks to a mix up that put as many as 13 million checks into invalid bank accounts.

Why it matters: The IRS (by law) was supposed to get all payments out by Friday. Now the onus could shift to Americans to claim the money on their tax refund — further delaying relief to struggling, lower-income Americans.

The post-Trump GOP, gutted

McConnell (L), McCarthy (R) and Trump. Photo: Erin Schaff-Pool/Getty Images

Republicans will emerge from the Trump era gutted financially, institutionally and structurally.

The big picture: The losses are stark and substantial.