Aug 6, 2019

Central banks haven't cut this much since the financial crisis

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Expand chart
Adapted from a Goldman Sachs chart; Chart: Axios Visuaals

Investors are pricing in a 100% chance the Fed cuts rates at its next meeting in September after Monday's market carnage, joining central banks around the globe that are providing more stimulus to their respective economies.

Why it matters: While the prospect of more interest rate cuts had buoyed the stock market going into last week's Fed meeting, Monday's sell-off showed that investors no longer view that as enough to sustain current price levels.

What's happening: Initially seen as a cautionary pause, the world's central banks have clearly returned to a path of lower interest rates that has not been seen since the global financial crisis.

  • More than half of the world's central banks are expected to cut interest rates in the third quarter, while 0% of central banks are expected to raise rates in the third or fourth quarters, data compiled by Goldman Sachs shows.

What they're saying:

  • "With global growth running at a below-trend rate of 2.75% — down from about 4% a year ago — a synchronized tilt towards easing looks like a natural response to a weaker outlook," Goldman Sachs research analysts wrote in a recent note to clients.

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