Jul 10, 2019

Another recession alarm goes off

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Reproduced from Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Chart: Axios Visuals

Worriers have had good reasons to fret about the economic recovery.

Context: In addition to being the longest economic expansion in U.S. history, a number of reliable recession warning indicators have been flashing in 2019. The latest is the New York Fed's recession probability index.

What they're saying: "In the past, every time since 1960 that this index has breached 30%, a recession followed," Morgan Stanley Wealth Management CIO Lisa Shalett wrote in a July 1 note to clients. It rose to 32.9% in June.

  • Shalett also pointed to the gold/silver ratio, weakness in auto sales, housing, manufacturing, earnings and capital spending.
  • "Recession probability models have entered warning territory and it may be unavoidable."

Go deeper

Analysts say a German recession "looks unavoidable"

Data: Investing.com; Chart: Axios Visuals

Germany's manufacturing sector has been contracting all year, and its economy is at serious risk of falling into recession.

The state of play: Things continue to worsen for Europe's largest economy. This month its manufacturing sector showed its worst reading in 7 years, a continuation of a crumbling industry that just last month saw the sharpest slide in factory orders since the financial crisis.

Go deeperArrowJul 25, 2019

Manufacturing is rebounding from its June swoon

Data: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia; Chart: Axios Visuals

The Fed's regional manufacturing indexes are bouncing back in July after an awful June swoon, none more so than the Philadelphia region, which rose to 21.8 from a 0.3 reading in June.

Why it matters: It was the highest result in a year for the survey.

Go deeperArrowJul 19, 2019

The continuing global slowdown

Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

The first half of the year has been weaker than expected for the global economy, and the main cause is a significant slowdown in manufacturing and trade.

What's happening: The IMF wrote down its global growth expectations for the third time this year, pointing squarely to the U.S.-China trade war that has thrown a wet blanket on cross-border trade and investment, sending manufacturing into a recession in the U.S. and in an increasing number of countries around the globe.

Go deeperArrowJul 24, 2019