Jul 10, 2019

Another recession alarm goes off

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
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Reproduced from Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Chart: Axios Visuals

Worriers have had good reasons to fret about the economic recovery.

Context: In addition to being the longest economic expansion in U.S. history, a number of reliable recession warning indicators have been flashing in 2019. The latest is the New York Fed's recession probability index.

What they're saying: "In the past, every time since 1960 that this index has breached 30%, a recession followed," Morgan Stanley Wealth Management CIO Lisa Shalett wrote in a July 1 note to clients. It rose to 32.9% in June.

  • Shalett also pointed to the gold/silver ratio, weakness in auto sales, housing, manufacturing, earnings and capital spending.
  • "Recession probability models have entered warning territory and it may be unavoidable."

Go deeper

Axios
Updated 7 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 10 a.m. ET: 12,745,734 — Total deaths: 565,782 — Total recoveries — 7,023,260 — Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 10 a.m. ET: 3,248,220 — Total deaths: 134,815 — Total recoveries: 995,576 — Total tested: 39,553,395 — Map.
  3. Politics: Trump wears face mask in public for first time.
  4. Public health: Trump's coronavirus testing czar says lockdowns in hotspots "should be on the table" — We're losing the war on the coronavirus.
  5. Education: Betsy DeVos says schools that don't reopen shouldn't get federal funds.
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Betsy DeVos: Schools that don't reopen shouldn't get federal funds

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Why it matters: President Trump said in June that the U.S. "won't be closing down the country again" — a view shared by many Republicans who believe that the economic damage caused by stay-at-home orders was too great to justify a second round of lockdowns.

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