Jul 10, 2019

Another recession alarm goes off

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Expand chart
Reproduced from Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Chart: Axios Visuals

Worriers have had good reasons to fret about the economic recovery.

Context: In addition to being the longest economic expansion in U.S. history, a number of reliable recession warning indicators have been flashing in 2019. The latest is the New York Fed's recession probability index.

What they're saying: "In the past, every time since 1960 that this index has breached 30%, a recession followed," Morgan Stanley Wealth Management CIO Lisa Shalett wrote in a July 1 note to clients. It rose to 32.9% in June.

  • Shalett also pointed to the gold/silver ratio, weakness in auto sales, housing, manufacturing, earnings and capital spending.
  • "Recession probability models have entered warning territory and it may be unavoidable."

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Axios
Updated 5 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 10 p.m. ET: 32,471,119 — Total deaths: 987,593 — Total recoveries: 22,374,557 — Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 10 p.m. ET: 7,032,524 — Total deaths: 203,657 — Total recoveries: 2,727,335 — Total tests: 99,483,712 — Map.
  3. States: "We’re not closing anything going forward": Florida fully lifts COVID restaurant restrictions — Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam tests positive for coronavirus.
  4. Health: Young people accounted for 20% of cases this summer.
  5. Business: Coronavirus has made airports happier places —The expiration of Pandemic Unemployment Assistance looms.
  6. Education: Where bringing students back to school is most risky.
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What he's saying: The ad — which began Friday night, and is a follow-up to "Fresh Start" — draws from a Biden speech earlier in the week in Manitowoc, Wisconsin:

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Trump prepares to announce Amy Coney Barrett as Supreme Court replacement

Judge Amy Coney Barrett. Photo: Matt Cashore/Notre Dame University via Reuters

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Why it matters: Barrett would push the already conservative court further and harder to the right, for decades to come, on the most important issues in American politics — from abortion to the limits of presidential power. If confirmed, she would give conservatives a 6-3 majority on the high court.

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