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Another recession alarm goes off

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Expand chart
Reproduced from Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Chart: Axios Visuals

Worriers have had good reasons to fret about the economic recovery.

Context: In addition to being the longest economic expansion in U.S. history, a number of reliable recession warning indicators have been flashing in 2019. The latest is the New York Fed's recession probability index.

What they're saying: "In the past, every time since 1960 that this index has breached 30%, a recession followed," Morgan Stanley Wealth Management CIO Lisa Shalett wrote in a July 1 note to clients. It rose to 32.9% in June.

  • Shalett also pointed to the gold/silver ratio, weakness in auto sales, housing, manufacturing, earnings and capital spending.
  • "Recession probability models have entered warning territory and it may be unavoidable."

Go deeper

Jonathan Swan
1 hour ago - Politics & Policy

U.S. ambassador to Russia will return home briefly: State Department

John Sullivan, U.S. Ambassador to Russia, during a briefing in Moscow in 2015. Photo: Anton Novoderezhkin/TASS via Getty Images

The State Department said Monday that the U.S. ambassador to Russia, John Sullivan, will now be returning to the United States this week before returning to Moscow "in the coming weeks."

Why this matters: The statement, from a State Department spokesperson, comes just hours after Axios reported that Sullivan had indicated he intended to stand his ground and stay in Russia after the Kremlin “advised” him to return home to talk with his team.

Go deeper (1 min. read)Arrow
Jonathan Swan, Zachary Basu
1 hour ago - World

Scoop: Leaked Ukraine memo reveals scope of Russia's aggression

Russian President Vladimir Putin visits a military exposition in Sevastopol, Crimea, in Jan. 2020. Photo: Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

Russia has been holding last-minute military exercises near commercial shipping lanes in the Black Sea that threaten to strangle Ukraine's economy, according to an internal document from Ukraine's ministry of defense reviewed by Axios.

Why it matters: With the eyes of the world on the massive buildup of troops in eastern Ukraine, the leaked memo shows Russian forces escalating their presence on all sides of the Ukrainian border.

Go deeper (2 min. read)Arrow
Courtenay Brown
2 hours ago - Economy & Business

Elon Musk: Autopilot feature wasn't enabled in fatal Texas crash

Photo: Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted on Monday that "data logs recovered so far" show the car's Autopilot feature was not enabled — and it did not have access to "full self-driving mode" — in the deadly crash in Texas involving the company's electric vehicle.

Background: Local investigators said they believed the car was operating without anyone in the driver's seat. At the time of death, one man was in the passenger seat, while another was in the rear seat, KPRC 2 reports.

Go deeper (1 min. read)Arrow