Jul 10, 2019

Another recession alarm goes off

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Reproduced from Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Chart: Axios Visuals

Worriers have had good reasons to fret about the economic recovery.

Context: In addition to being the longest economic expansion in U.S. history, a number of reliable recession warning indicators have been flashing in 2019. The latest is the New York Fed's recession probability index.

What they're saying: "In the past, every time since 1960 that this index has breached 30%, a recession followed," Morgan Stanley Wealth Management CIO Lisa Shalett wrote in a July 1 note to clients. It rose to 32.9% in June.

Shalett also pointed to the gold/silver ratio, weakness in auto sales, housing, manufacturing, earnings and capital spending.
"Recession probability models have entered warning territory and it may be unavoidable."

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Dion Rabouin

Analysts say a German recession "looks unavoidable"

Data: Investing.com; Chart: Axios Visuals

Germany's manufacturing sector has been contracting all year, and its economy is at serious risk of falling into recession.

The state of play: Things continue to worsen for Europe's largest economy. This month its manufacturing sector showed its worst reading in 7 years, a continuation of a crumbling industry that just last month saw the sharpest slide in factory orders since the financial crisis.

Go deeperJul 25, 2019

Dion Rabouin

Manufacturing is rebounding from its June swoon

Data: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia; Chart: Axios Visuals

The Fed's regional manufacturing indexes are bouncing back in July after an awful June swoon, none more so than the Philadelphia region, which rose to 21.8 from a 0.3 reading in June.

Why it matters: It was the highest result in a year for the survey.

Go deeperJul 19, 2019

Dion Rabouin

The continuing global slowdown

Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

The first half of the year has been weaker than expected for the global economy, and the main cause is a significant slowdown in manufacturing and trade.

What's happening: The IMF wrote down its global growth expectations for the third time this year, pointing squarely to the U.S.-China trade war that has thrown a wet blanket on cross-border trade and investment, sending manufacturing into a recession in the U.S. and in an increasing number of countries around the globe.

Go deeperJul 24, 2019