1. Biden's economic luck
Photo illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios. Photo: Kyle Rivas/Stringer via Getty Images
Joe Biden assumed office with more economic upside than any other president in recent history.
Between the lines: Presidencies are creatures of circumstance. For Biden, it's a smoldering economy atop a solid foundation, with a rebuild plan whose primary materials (vaccines and stimulus) are in unusually high supply. If economic arrows turn red, it likely means Biden botched the blueprint.
Joe Biden assumed office with more economic upside than any other president in recent history.
Between the lines: Presidencies are creatures of circumstance. For Biden, it's a smoldering economy atop a solid foundation, with a rebuild plan whose primary materials (vaccines and stimulus) are in unusually high supply. If economic arrows turn red, it likely means Biden botched the blueprint.
- Donald Trump inherited a long-standing recovery, which meant he could help accelerate growth but had no recession to reverse.
- Barack Obama was faced with a financial crisis born of deep, systemic design flaws. There was no vaccine to cure what ailed America's economy.
- George W. Bush campaigned in the last days of the dotcom bubble, which already had begun bursting when he entered the White House.
- Bill Clinton inherited a recession, but only a relatively mild one.
A big difference between 2020 and past recessions is that 2020 was caused by an event exogenous to the economy. The economy was the victim, not the culprit.
- The Trump economy certainly didn't work for everyone, but many of its macro strengths could remain beneath the ash, including pre-pandemic wage growth and decreases in poverty rates.
- Biden can dig a lot of them up, just by succeeding on vaccine distribution. He then can leverage Democratic control of Congress — and America's desensitization to big numbers — to throw money at short-term economic problems. It's all basic blocking and tackling.
But, but, but: Tailwinds don't necessarily result in a smooth flight. In fact, Biden's biggest risk could be the fact that American business, investors and most voters expect success. Anything short of the Roaring 20's (Part 2) would be viewed as an economic embarrassment.
The bottom line: Never before has a bad economy looked so good for a presidential legacy.