🗞️ Happy Friday! Today is National Newspaper Carrier Day. We celebrate by riding our bikes across the internet every morning to toss this newsletter into your inbox.

🌦️ Today's weather: A chance of showers in the am, then mostly sunny with a high near 86.

🎂 Happy birthday to our members Valerie Trabaris, Marcy Ludington, Kirsten Curley Keppler, Marie Myszkowski and Charles J Taft!

Situational awareness: We're off on Labor Day. We'll return to your inbox on Tuesday!

Today's newsletter is 1,o26 — a 4-minute read.

Chicago's 2027 budget deficit checks in at $283.9 million less than what was expected at this time last year.

Why it matters: While good news, it still leaves a whopping $882.4 million gap for Mayor Brandon Johnson and a contentious City Council to fill by the end of the year, according to projections released by the mayor's office yesterday.

Between the lines: The forecast announcement felt less like pure data sharing than election-year campaigning with frequent allusions to the failure of a debt-sale plan advanced by alders last year and the success of Johnson's "progressive revenue."

By the numbers: The city's general operating cash (known as the "corporate fund") is expected to shrink in 2027 by $375.9 million (6%) due to reduced TIF surplus availability and "City Council" revenue proposals that didn't pan out, Johnson's office says.

• Meanwhile, the forecast says costs will increase by $506.5 million (8.1%) over 2026 numbers driven by settlements and judgments, cost-of-living adjustments and higher prices.

Pension payment surprise: After casting doubt on his administration's ability to make a second supplemental pension payment this year, Johnson's team announced Thursday that the city would pay it by the end of the month.

What we're watching: If and how Johnson engages with alders differently this year after two brutal budget cycles. When asked about it yesterday, the mayor initially admitted he could have done things better, but then placed most of the blame on the council:

• "There is a speck in my eye because I'm human," he said. "But what I'm saying is that I'm not going to allow people who have a log jammed in their eye to judge the speck that's in mine."

What's next: Johnson expects to release the details of his full budget "in a little bit over a month."

What's next for pensions

Jobs in health care and social assistance are projected to see the most growth over the next decade. That's according to a report out last week from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Why it matters: The explosive growth in these sectors comes courtesy of the changing fabric of the country — an aging population that needs more care.

• Those demographics are also a reason job growth overall is projected to slow over the next decade.

The big picture: Over the next 10 years, BLS projects that the U.S. economy will add 5.9 million jobs. Total employment would increase to 176.2 million, growing 3.5%.

• That's a lot slower than the 10.9% growth recorded in the previous decade.
• Other reports have flagged the huge drop in immigration over the past year or so as contributing to slower job growth.

The other side: The BLS also forecasts job losses across several occupations as a result of AI and automation.

• Automation and AI will likely reduce demand for office and administrative support jobs — losing 752,100 jobs over the next decade.
• AI and automation are also expected to contribute to job loss in sales and manufacturing.

Go deeper

🐳 Two beluga whales — Rain and Beethoven — died Wednesday at the Shedd, about a week after another beluga named Peekachu died at the aquarium. (Sun-Times)

⚖️ The civil trial based on a shooting during a White Sox game in 2023 begins Jan. 4. Two women injured during a fourth-inning shooting claim the gunfire came from inside the stadium, which the Sox deny. (Tribune)

🧑‍🍳 Jenner Tomaska, the chef behind Michelin-star restaurant Esme is working with United Airlines on a new menu. (WGN)

We've argued about our favorite sweet (and savory for Monica) treats a couple of times.

• Each time, Axios readers come through with dozens more!

State of play: Read on for recommendations in Chicago and beyond.

"Morkes Chocolates in Palatine has the best cake donuts!!! A guy in my office brings them in every Friday." — Mike C.

"Smack Dab on North Clark in Rogers Park." — Thom C.

"In the fall, apple cider donuts at Forest Park Bakery. Get there early as they sell out quick." — Leslie B.

"Spunky Dunkers is my absolute FAVORITE donut place in Chicagoland. I hope they get featured!" — Hannah G.

"Do-Rite's French Cruller makes every morning better — airy and delicate with an eggy, not-too-sweet inside. It should be taught in French pastry schools." —Tom L.

"Kuppie's Bakery in Villa Park is very good. Something about a deep-fried, chocolate-covered croissant that rules!" — Stephen S.

"Best donuts are at Wheeling Donuts." — Mark C.

"In the south suburbs it's Orland Park Bakery. In Chicago it has to be Weber's Bakery for a good old-fashioned chocolate hand-dipped donut!!" — Andrea D.

"I gotta give some love to Firecakes regular and pistachio old-fashioned donuts. Even better when you get it off their mobile donut truck!" — Ari B. (and John R., who loves the vanilla frosted raised doughnut with sugar pearls on top.)

More goodies

🙏 Thank you to everyone who helped us celebrate five years of Axios Chicago last night at the Hideout.

• We appreciate all of our readers who spend their mornings with us.

📧 We look forward to many more years in your inbox.

Edited by Larry Graham.

🏖️ Carrie is excited to see her friends tomorrow for a beach day and (hopefully) dinner at Crying Tiger. Wish her luck on getting a table!

❤️ Justin can't thank everyone enough for coming out last night. What a jam! We'll be back with another fun event this fall!

🗓️ Monica is going to miss writing this newsletter while on a three-week sabbatical for the rest of the month. Have fun with Carrie and Justin!

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