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Secretary of State Pompeo announced on Feb 1. that the United States will suspend its obligations under — and withdraw from — the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. That treaty banned U.S. and Russian land-based missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers, but Russia has violated violated the agreement by deploying the 9M729 intermediate-range cruise missile.

Why it matters: Although Washington asserted that its goal was to bring Russia back into compliance, it did not develop a serious political and military strategy to do so. There is now little chance now of saving the treaty, whose demise will weaken U.S. and allied security and free Russia to deploy intermediate-range missiles.

Between the lines: U.S. military officials thus far do not see the 9M729 as a game-changer. Ongoing Russian missile deployments, however, could lead NATO to consider countermeasures. The Pentagon has begun developing an intermediate-range missile, though NATO likely would be unable reach consensus on deploying it in Europe.

What to watch: Attention will now turn to the remaining U.S.–Russian nuclear arms control agreement: the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. New START expires by its terms in two years but can be extended by up to five years.

Extension would cap Russian strategic forces until 2026, without inhibiting U.S. modernization plans, which are designed to fit within New START’s limits. It would also continue the flow of valuable information on Russian strategic forces that the U.S. military gets from the treaty’s verification measures.

The Russians are complying with New START, and they have expressed interest in its extension. That should be a no-brainer, but Bolton disdains arms control and President Trump has criticized the treaty as "one-sided." U.S. agreement to extension is not a given.

The bottom line: If New START lapses in 2021, no treaties will constrain U.S. and Russian nuclear forces, a break from some 50 years of nuclear arms control between Washington and Moscow. That world invariably will be less stable, less predictable and less secure.

Steven Pifer is a William J. Perry fellow at Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation.

U.S. exit from INF Treaty frees Russia from key nuclear constraints

The treaty's demise could weaken security for the U.S. and its allies.

President Trump, flanked by national security advisor John Bolton. Photo: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

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Secretary of State Pompeo <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="announced" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/us-to-formally-withdraw-from-inf-treaty-russia-e8e50327-6fe6-4955-b1ff-28697831d77d.html" data-vars-content-id="3f171863-7e26-4c2a-ab44-57a57c2f7873" data-vars-headline="U.S. exit from INF Treaty frees Russia from key nuclear constraints" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/us-to-formally-withdraw-from-inf-treaty-russia-e8e50327-6fe6-4955-b1ff-28697831d77d.html" target="_self">announced</a> on Feb 1. that the United States will suspend its obligations under — and withdraw from — the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. That treaty banned U.S. and Russian land-based missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers, but Russia has violated violated the agreement by <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="deploying the 9M729 intermediate-range cruise missile" data-vars-click-url="https://apnews.com/8f6eefdfc7b34beda62a524122b7f9d5" data-vars-content-id="3f171863-7e26-4c2a-ab44-57a57c2f7873" data-vars-headline="U.S. exit from INF Treaty frees Russia from key nuclear constraints" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://apnews.com/8f6eefdfc7b34beda62a524122b7f9d5" target="_blank">deploying the 9M729 intermediate-range cruise missile</a>.Why it matters: Although Washington asserted that its goal was to bring Russia back into compliance, it did not develop a serious political and military strategy to do so. There is now little chance now of saving the treaty, whose demise will weaken U.S. and allied security and free Russia to deploy intermediate-range missiles.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

President Trump has announced his intent to withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which prohibits U.S. and Russian land-based missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. 

The big picture: Trump does have grounds to withdraw — Moscow has violated the treaty by deploying the 9M729 intermediate-range cruise missile — but doing so now is a mistake. Washington had unused tools that could have been employed to encourage Russian compliance.

Military pressure is one approach Russia would surely have noticed. The U.S. could have deployed conventionally armed Joint Air-to-Surface Strike missiles to Europe and increased the presence of warships carrying conventionally armed sea-launched cruise missiles in European waters. These steps could have been taken quickly and without violating U.S. treaty obligations.

Trump could also have turned up the political heat on the Kremlin, by urging NATO leaders and other allies such as Japan to take up concerns about Russia's treaty violations directly with President Putin.

Would these steps have achieved a change in Russian policy? Perhaps, perhaps not. In any case, we will not know if Trump decides to abandon the agreement. It is not evident that the administration tried hard to save the treaty, perhaps because National Security Advisor John Bolton has long favored ditching it.

Why it matters: Withdrawal entails significant costs for U.S. and Western security. Russia will be free to deploy without constraint the 9M729 and other land-based intermediate-range missiles, for which the U.S. military currently has no counterpart. The decision has already sparked controversy within NATO, with officials in Berlin, Rome and Paris criticizing Trump’s announcement. Finally, absent a strong public case regarding the Russian violation — that information is highly classified — Washington will widely be seen as responsible for the INF Treaty’s demise.

Steven Pifer is a William J. Perry fellow at Stanford and nonresident scholar with the Brookings Institution.

Trump faults Russia for INF treaty pullout but did little to save it

The administration left both military and diplomatic options on the table.

JUNE 27, 2018: Russia's President Vladimir Putin (L) and US National Security Adviser John Bolton shake hands during a meeting in the Kremlin. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton at the Kremlin on June 27, 2018. Photo: Mikhail Metzel/TASS via Getty Images

President Trump has announced his <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="intent to withdraw" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/john-bolton-russia-visit-inf-treaty-86aa7f52-7d93-4f1d-a6d8-431cb6f56d7e.html" data-vars-content-id="a5761fea-0458-4574-aa09-0289c612e57b" data-vars-headline="Trump faults Russia for INF treaty pullout but did little to save it" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/john-bolton-russia-visit-inf-treaty-86aa7f52-7d93-4f1d-a6d8-431cb6f56d7e.html" target="_self">intent to withdraw</a> from the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which prohibits U.S. and Russian land-based missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. The big picture: Trump does have grounds to withdraw — Moscow has violated the treaty by deploying the 9M729 intermediate-range cruise missile — but doing so now is a mistake. Washington had unused tools that could have been employed to encourage Russian compliance.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Steven Pifer

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U.S. exit from INF Treaty frees Russia from key nuclear constraints

Trump faults Russia for INF treaty pullout but did little to save it