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The House Oversight Committee released a report this week that accuses Trump administration officials of legal and ethical breaches in their pursuit of a nuclear-plant deal with Saudi Arabia.

The big picture: While a nuclear-capable Saudi Arabia is a dangerous prospect — MBS has floated the idea of developing nuclear weapons — it's becoming something of a foregone conclusion. The world's nuclear suppliers are already bidding for the contract to construct Saudi Arabia's first two reactors, with Riyadh having shortlisted bids from not only the U.S., but also France, China, Russia and South Korea.

Reality check: If the U.S. doesn't secure a deal, another country could step in. France's nuclear industry is in disarray, while South Korea depends enough on U.S. nuclear technology to potentially necessitate U.S. involvement anyway. It would be alarming if Riyadh inked a deal with Moscow or Beijing, which both have signaled plans to export reactor technology globally.

Both China and Russia are known for lax standards on nuclear security, poor track records on safety, and a general willingness to turn a blind eye to partners violating international norms — a special consideration for Riyadh.

Between the lines: China's and Russia's growing roles in the global nuclear trade should worry U.S. policymakers more broadly. When the U.S. led the nuclear market through the 1990s, Washington cultivated long-term partnerships with emerging economies and designed strong international nuclear nonproliferation and security standards. The U.S. risks losing this advantage if Russia and China take the reins.

Moscow has a demonstrated history of exploiting energy dependencies for political gain in Europe. Beijing, too, has already made predatory investments, trapping countries in debt. Each nuclear reactor exported could serve as a source of geopolitical leverage for Russia and China over its lifespan of 60–80 years.

The bottom line: Insider dealing and sidestepping of Congress, while irresponsible and counterproductive, have little to do with the national security merits of a nuclear deal. With the strictest nuclear standards, the U.S. is still the most likely candidate to prevent Riyadh from pursuing weapons research in secret.

 Sagatom Saha is an international energy policy analyst and master’s candidate at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.

The case for exporting American nuclear reactors to Riyadh

If the U.S. doesn’t secure a deal, a country with laxer standards might step in.

Florida Power and Light workers Juan Madruga (R) and Pehter Rodriguez (L) confer at the Turkey Point Nuclear Reactor Building in Homestead, Florida

The Turkey Point Nuclear Reactor Building in Homestead, Florida. Photo: Rhona Wise/AFP via Getty Images

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The House Oversight Committee released a report this week that accuses Trump administration officials of legal and ethical breaches in their pursuit of a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="nuclear-plant deal" data-vars-click-url="https://www.wsj.com/articles/former-trump-adviser-pushed-saudi-nuclear-plant-plan-report-says-11550593223" data-vars-content-id="17dbc3ab-9a9c-48b4-92cc-eb3d1336dd47" data-vars-headline="The case for exporting American nuclear reactors to Riyadh" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/former-trump-adviser-pushed-saudi-nuclear-plant-plan-report-says-11550593223" target="_blank">nuclear-plant deal</a> with Saudi Arabia.The big picture: While a nuclear-capable Saudi Arabia is a dangerous prospect — <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="MBS has floated the idea" data-vars-click-url="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/saudi-crown-prince-mohammed-bin-salman-iran-nuclear-bomb-saudi-arabia/" data-vars-content-id="17dbc3ab-9a9c-48b4-92cc-eb3d1336dd47" data-vars-headline="The case for exporting American nuclear reactors to Riyadh" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/saudi-crown-prince-mohammed-bin-salman-iran-nuclear-bomb-saudi-arabia/" target="_blank">MBS has floated the idea</a> of developing nuclear weapons — it&#x27;s becoming something of a foregone conclusion. The world&#x27;s nuclear suppliers are already bidding for the contract to construct Saudi Arabia&#x27;s first two reactors, with Riyadh having shortlisted bids from not only the U.S., but also France, China, Russia and South Korea.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

The controversial election of Felix Tshisekedi to the presidency of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) at the end of last year raises many new questions about the country’s future, especially with respect to the global cobalt market. Because the DRC holds half of all known, economically recoverable cobalt reserves — currently accounting for 60% of global production — the world’s cobalt supply is inextricably tied to the DRC’s political stability.

Democratic Republic of the Congo's newly inaugurated President Felix Tshisekedi delivers a speech

Democratic Republic of the Congo's President Felix Tshisekedi. Photo: Tony Karumba/AFP via Getty Images 

Why it matters: Cobalt, which the U.S. considers “vital” to national security and economic prosperity, is an essential component for many large-scale energy storage systems and electric vehicle batteries.

Where it stands: Cobalt shortages are already expected by the early 2020s because of rapid demand for energy storage technology, which would drive up battery costs unless alternative chemistries are developed. Exacerbating the challenge for the U.S., the Trump administration also imposed tariffs on cobalt as part of its broader trade war with China, the world’s leading producer of refined cobalt and a leading supplier of U.S. cobalt imports.

Background: Even before December’s election, concerns over resource nationalism in the DRC were growing.

Recognizing cobalt’s increasing importance in the global clean-energy sector, Joseph Kabila, Tshisekedi’s predecessor, signed a new mining law in June 2018 setting the royalty rate on cobalt extraction at 3.5%, a 75% increase.

Then, in December, he issued a presidential decree declaring cobalt a “strategic” mineral resource, nearly tripling the royalties once more to 10%, a level likely to discourage further investment.

It’s unclear whether Tshisekedi will now follow through on the decree, abandon it while leaving the new mining law in place, or reform or revoke the law altogether. Though he purportedly criticized the law on the campaign trail as “anti-investment,” Tshisekedi also said in a recent speech that he wants mineral rents to increase from 10% to 45% of total government receipts.

What to watch: The coming months will reveal whether Tshisekedi breaks from Kabila’s policies. Regardless of the administration's decision, renewed political violence could upset global supply by disrupting the country’s considerable production.

Sagatom Saha is an independent international energy policy analyst. David Livingston is deputy director for climate and advanced energy at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center. 

The Congo’s chaotic election throws the future of cobalt in doubt

Cobalt shortages are already expected by the early 2020s.

Democratic Republic Of The Congo (DRC)

The <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="controversial election" data-vars-click-url="https://www.ft.com/content/2b97f6e6-189d-11e9-b93e-f4351a53f1c3" data-vars-content-id="b2d4b674-4fbc-4741-9f90-b887f5f6f06c" data-vars-headline="The Congo’s chaotic election throws the future of cobalt in doubt" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.ft.com/content/2b97f6e6-189d-11e9-b93e-f4351a53f1c3" target="_blank">controversial election</a> of Felix Tshisekedi to the presidency of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) at the end of last year raises many new questions about the country’s future, especially with respect to the global cobalt market. Because the DRC holds half of all known, economically recoverable <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="cobalt reserves" data-vars-click-url="https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs/2018/mcs2018.pdf" data-vars-content-id="b2d4b674-4fbc-4741-9f90-b887f5f6f06c" data-vars-headline="The Congo’s chaotic election throws the future of cobalt in doubt" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs/2018/mcs2018.pdf" target="_blank">cobalt reserves</a> — currently accounting for 60% of global production — the world’s cobalt supply is inextricably tied to the DRC’s political stability.

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Sagatom Saha

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The case for exporting American nuclear reactors to Riyadh

The Congo’s chaotic election throws the future of cobalt in doubt