National

The United Arab Emirates is reportedly withdrawing most of its forces from Yemen to defend its home front in the event of an Iran conflict — a move that could also improve its standing with U.S. lawmakers critical of the war in Yemen.

The big picture: The U.A.E.'s withdrawal of troops could lead to de-escalation in Yemen, but for Saudi Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman (MBS), a key Arab friend of the Trump administration, it is the latest indicator that he is rapidly running out of allies. 

What's happening: The Saudi crown prince is increasingly seen as toxic by members of U.S. Congress. 

The war in Yemen, where Saudi Arabia has been fighting Iranian-backed Houthi rebels since 2015, has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and resulted in the world’s worst ongoing humanitarian disaster. 

Additionally, a recent UN report found "credible evidence" that MBS ordered the  murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Accordingly, and in a rare bipartisan stand against the Trump administration, the U.S. Congress voted in June to block new arms sales to Saudi Arabia.

At the G20 summit in Osaka at the end of June, most world leaders gave MBS a wide berth, though President Trump notably praised him for doing "a spectacular job."

Between the lines: If tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate into full-blown conflict, the U.A.E. could become one of the first targets of Iranian missiles. Pulling forces home means the U.A.E.’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Zayad, can better defend his Gulf emirate.

The move also placates U.S. Congressional critics of the war in Yemen.

What we're watching: Whether the U.A.E. will shift to fighting al Qaeda and ISIS in Yemen, which could also curry favor with American lawmakers, and how their alliance plays out in Libya, where the U.A.E. supports a rebel leader fighting the UN-backed government.

Lawrence Pintak is a professor at Washington State University and the author of "America & Islam: Soundbites, Suicide Bombs and the Road to Donald Trump." 

With U.A.E. withdrawal from Yemen, Saudi Crown Prince could lose an ally

The move could also placate U.S. Congressional critics of the war in Yemen.

Silhouette of an Emirati soldier looking out of a military plane at the strait of Bab al-Mandab.

An Emirati soldier looking out of a military plane at the strait of Bab al-Mandab. Photo: Karim Sahib/AFP/Getty Images.

World

United Arab Emirates

Expert Voices

The United Arab Emirates is <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="reportedly" data-vars-click-url="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-a-e-moves-to-extricate-itself-from-saudi-led-war-in-yemen-11562094272" data-vars-content-id="1cd55b4c-b81c-42af-9e86-56919383cd67" data-vars-headline="With U.A.E. withdrawal from Yemen, Saudi Crown Prince could lose an ally" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-a-e-moves-to-extricate-itself-from-saudi-led-war-in-yemen-11562094272" target="_blank">reportedly</a> withdrawing most of its forces from Yemen to defend its home front in the event of an Iran conflict — a move that could also improve its standing with U.S. lawmakers critical of the war in Yemen.The big picture: The U.A.E.&#x27;s withdrawal of troops could lead to de-escalation in Yemen, but for Saudi Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman (MBS), a key Arab friend of the Trump administration, it is the latest indicator that he is rapidly running out of allies.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Responding to India’s August annexation of Kashmir, Pakistani officials are using interviews, op-eds and social media to emphasize that Islamabad is taking a diplomatic, not military, response to the dangerous religious zealotry that is driving Indian policy.

Why it matters: Pakistan is betting a global public relations campaign can help address the Kashmir crisis in the short term and realign South Asian politics in the long term — paving the way for economic gains and better relations with the West.

Background: Following its landslide victory in May, the Hindu nationalist government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has mounted a major anti-Muslim campaign. Modi's actions are intended to play to his extremist supporters, cementing his grip on power.

In August, it annexed the autonomous Muslim-majority region of Kashmir, which is under a complete military lockdown, and suspended the citizenship of almost 2 million Indian Muslims. 

What they're saying: In a recent media blitz, Pakistan’s ambassadors to Washington and the UN, the foreign minister and other officials echoed key points Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan outlined in a New York Times op-ed Saturday:

Khan alleged on Twitter that Kashmiris are facing “ethnic cleansing” and that India is stripping them of their rights and preparing to flood the formerly semi-autonomous region with Hindus to create new demographic realities.

Asad Majeed Khan, Pakistan’s U.S. ambassador said the country is committed to a diplomatic solution of the crisis, including direct talks with India, and is seeking UN and U.S. intervention.

Meanwhile, the Pakistani government held media events with Hindus and Sikhs to emphasize protection of minorities in contrast to Indian intolerance.

What to watch: India is a major U.S. diplomatic and trading partner, while Pakistan has had a troubled relationship with Washington, which has accused it of backing al Qaeda and other militant groups. 

If Pakistan succeeds in winning over Washington and India alienates the international community through religious zealotry, the geopolitics of South Asia could shift dramatically. 

That would be a victory for Pakistan even if the Indian annexation of Kashmir becomes permanent.

Lawrence Pintak is a professor at Washington State University and the author of "America & Islam: Soundbites, Suicide Bombs and the Road to Donald Trump."

Pakistan is harnessing Western media in the wake of the Kashmir crisis

Officials are using interviews and op-eds to address the crisis and demonstrate diplomacy.

Pakistan's Ambassador to the U.S. Asad Majeed Khan.

Pakistan's Ambassador to the U.S. Asad Majeed Khan. Photo: Yasin Ozturk/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images.

Pakistan

Responding to India’s August annexation of Kashmir, Pakistani officials are using interviews, op-eds and social media to emphasize that Islamabad is taking a diplomatic, not military, response to the dangerous religious zealotry that is driving Indian policy.Why it matters: Pakistan is betting a global public relations campaign can help address the Kashmir crisis in the short term and realign South Asian politics in the long term — paving the way for economic gains and better relations with the West.

As Saudi Arabia went on the defensive last week about Jamal Khashoggi’s alleged murder, Ankara seized the chance to repair relations with Washington by releasing U.S. pastor Andrew Brunson. “We feel much different about Turkey today than we did yesterday,” President Trump told reporters on Saturday, expressing his hope of “having a very, very good relationship.”

The big picture: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long wanted Turkey to supplant Saudi Arabia as the dominant power in the Middle East. The Khashoggi affair has presented a unique opportunity to undermine Saudi influence, potentially creating a regional power void for Turkey to fill. 

Background: The emergence of Turkey as a rival Middle East power traces back to the Arab Spring, when the Turks supported Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood government and the Saudis bitterly opposed it. Erdogan is an Islamist; many like-minded political parties in the region look to him for leadership, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has accused him of trying to “reinstate the Islamic Caliphate” of the Ottoman Empire.

MBS spent the past year — and millions of dollars — positioning himself as a golden boy in Washington, just as Erdogan and Trump came to blows over the jailed American pastor, resulting in crippling sanctions and a nadir in U.S.-Turkey relations. 

For Erdogan, Khashoggi’s death couldn’t have happened at a better moment. The day after, Erdogan gave a speech in which his ambition for regional leadership was on full display. The gruesome details of Khashoggi’s murder trickled out, punctuating the claims of Turkish officials and their allies that the Saudi-Emirati-U.S. alliance was morally bankrupt.

Between the lines: The Trump administration’s approach to the region has also fueled Turkey’s rise, transforming the war against ISIS into a confrontation with regional rival Iran and blessing the Saudi-Emirati siege of U.S. ally Qatar. In response, Turkey sent troops to protect Qatar and is coordinating with Iran in the Syrian conflict, solidifying a new axis of influence. With Saudi Arabia on the ropes over Khashoggi, Erdogan has more opportunities to ramp up his influence in Washington and the Arab world.

The bottom line: Ironically, it is Erdogan, a strongman who hates the media almost as much as Trump, who could find himself the biggest beneficiary of Western outrage over a journalist’s murder.

Lawrence Pintak is a professor at Washington State University, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, and the author of “The New Arab Journalist."

After Khashoggi’s death, Turkey sees a path to greater influence

And Trump has new hope for "a very, very good relationship" with Turkey.

President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan makes a speech during judges and prosecutors' appointment ceremony at Bestepe Congress Center in Ankara, Turkey on October 16, 2018.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on Oct. 16. Photo: Cem Oksuz/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Jamal Khashoggi

Politics

As Saudi Arabia went on the defensive last week about Jamal Khashoggi’s alleged murder, Ankara seized the chance to repair relations with Washington by <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="releasing U.S. pastor Andrew Brunson" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/andrew-brunson-to-be-released-turkey-d25f8c64-36fd-413d-9357-d81cfd6646fa.html" data-vars-content-id="5a58595a-feae-47bd-a658-3c5e5fb63ccc" data-vars-headline="After Khashoggi’s death, Turkey sees a path to greater influence" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/andrew-brunson-to-be-released-turkey-d25f8c64-36fd-413d-9357-d81cfd6646fa.html" target="_self">releasing U.S. pastor Andrew Brunson</a>. “We feel much different about Turkey today than we did yesterday,” President Trump <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="told reporters on Saturday" data-vars-click-url="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-usa-trump/trump-thanks-turkey-for-pastors-release-denies-cutting-deal-idUSKCN1MN0KQ" data-vars-content-id="5a58595a-feae-47bd-a658-3c5e5fb63ccc" data-vars-headline="After Khashoggi’s death, Turkey sees a path to greater influence" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-usa-trump/trump-thanks-turkey-for-pastors-release-denies-cutting-deal-idUSKCN1MN0KQ" target="_blank">told reporters on Saturday</a>, expressing his hope of “<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="having a very, very good relationship.”" data-vars-click-url="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-meeting-pastor-andrew-brunson/" data-vars-content-id="5a58595a-feae-47bd-a658-3c5e5fb63ccc" data-vars-headline="After Khashoggi’s death, Turkey sees a path to greater influence" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-meeting-pastor-andrew-brunson/" target="_blank">having a very, very good relationship.”</a>The big picture: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long wanted Turkey to supplant Saudi Arabia as the dominant power in the Middle East. The Khashoggi affair has presented a unique opportunity to undermine Saudi influence, potentially creating a regional power void for Turkey to fill.

Current U.S. policy toward Iran has deepened the Middle East's Sunni-Shia divide — embodied in the regional rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran — and risks repeating the failures of successive U.S. administrations.

Why it matters: American presidents have often tried to view the Middle East in overly black-and-white terms — from Reagan in Lebanon and Bush in Iraq to Obama’s dreams of Arab democracy. With this mindset still in play, the risks of economic harm and military escalation continue to mount.

Background: Many of today's issues can be traced to 1979 — the year of the Iranian revolution, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the takeover of the Grand Mosque in Mecca. 

Iran’s Islamic revolution was in part an outgrowth of American and British meddling back in 1953, when the CIA and Britain’s MI6 ousted Iran’s prime minister to protect Western oil companies and laid the groundwork for Shia antipathy toward the U.S.

In Afghanistan, the U.S. armed and trained Sunni Muslim jihadis to fight the Soviets. 

Shaken by the takeover of Islam’s holiest mosque by fundamentalists, Saudi Arabia’s American-backed rulers empowered conservative clerics.

The impact: These policies invited widespread blowback.

The rise of the ayatollahs gave birth to the Shiite anti-American terrorism of the 1980s; al-Qaeda, the Taliban and other Sunni extremist groups have roots in the Afghan jihad and the Saudi’s global Wahhabi crusade.

American military support for the minority Christian government in Lebanon alienated the country’s Shiites, bolstered Iran and sparked the first anti-American suicide bombings.

The U.S. overthrow of Saddam Hussein removed a check on Iranian regional influence, empowered the Iraqi Shia and created instability that fostered the Islamic State.

Between the lines: America’s decades-old diplomatic dispute with Iran continues to cast the Saudis as the good guys and the Islamic Republic, which hasn’t been tied to a deadly act of anti-American terrorism since 1996, as a “nation of terror.”

As a result, the U.S. has been pulled into the bloody Yemen proxy war between Tehran and Riyadh, reinforcing Iran's perception that the Trump White House is a tool of Saudi foreign policy.

What to watch: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, which shot down a U.S. drone last week, could provoke another confrontation in the Gulf or beyond — potentially playing into the hands of Iran hawks in the U.S., even if Trump himself wants to avoid war. 

Also worth watching are the Saudis, Emiratis and the Israelis, each of whom could stand to gain from a shooting war between the U.S. and Iran. 

By interrupting the flow of oil from the Gulf, Iran could drive up the price, helping its sanctions-strained economy.

U.S.–Iran standoff perpetuates flaws of decades-old policies

More flexibility could help navigate the divide between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Mike Pompeo and John Bolton on stage behind Donald Trump, speaking at a lectern

President Trump at the July 2018 NATO summit with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and national security adviser John Bolton. Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

Middle East conflict

Afghanistan

Current U.S. policy toward Iran has deepened the Middle East&#x27;s Sunni-Shia divide — embodied in the regional rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran — and risks repeating the failures of successive U.S. administrations.Why it matters: American presidents have often tried to view the Middle East in overly black-and-white terms — from Reagan in Lebanon and Bush in Iraq to Obama’s dreams of Arab democracy. With this mindset still in play, the risks of economic harm and military escalation continue to mount.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

Lawrence Pintak

Stories

Pakistan is harnessing Western media in the wake of the Kashmir crisis

With U.A.E. withdrawal from Yemen, Saudi Crown Prince could lose an ally

U.S.–Iran standoff perpetuates flaws of decades-old policies

After Khashoggi’s death, Turkey sees a path to greater influence