National

Turkey is facing its worst economic crisis in decades, raising fears about its impact on the more than 3.5 million Syrians who now reside there, having fled seven years of violence at home. 

The big picture: These woes could result in a decrease in discretionary spending on social service programs that benefit refugees. It could, for example, slow efforts to get Syrians into primary school and vocational training programs. That said, the crisis may not make as substantial a difference in practice to these endeavors as some fear. 

First, spending on programs that benefit non-citizens was already politically unpopular. Especially at the local level, Turkish government efforts on behalf of refugees have often been quiet, and can continue to be. Second, at least some of the funding for these efforts comes from the EU–Turkey deal, which is not affected by the downturn. More broadly, as the Turkish lira weakens, Euros are likely to go further than before.

That doesn’t mean there isn’t cause for concern. Competition in the informal labor market will likely become tougher. Growth is expected to slow significantly at a time when unemployment figures were already rising. That could increase vulnerability to exploitative work conditions. It could also result in an uptick in child labor, indirectly resulting in a decline in school enrollments and attendance. 

What to watch: Meanwhile, if Assad launches a full-scale assault in Syria’s northwest province of Idlib, the country’s last remaining opposition stronghold, more than 2 million Syrians could try to flee to Turkey. Especially against the backdrop of economic crisis, that could further exacerbate intercommunal tensions already on the rise.

Jessica Brandt is a fellow in the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution. Kemal Kirişci is a senior fellow and director of the Turkey Project at the Brookings Institution. 

Turkey's economic woes could spell trouble for Syrian refugees

Slowing growth could result in an uptick in child labor.

People walk past a currency exchange shop on August 14, 2018 in Istanbul, Turkey. 

People walk past a currency exchange shop on August 14, 2018, in Istanbul, Turkey, after a slight recovery from heavy losses. Photo: Chris McGrath via Getty Images

World

Syrian Civil War

Expert Voices

<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Turkey is facing its worst economic crisis in decades," data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/turkish-lira-collapses-trump-tariffs-692031d5-f7cf-491d-8051-755a87677d7f.html" data-vars-content-id="d1eaae2e-fcd3-45ff-a1b1-a26567115e8b" data-vars-headline="Turkey&#x27;s economic woes could spell trouble for Syrian refugees" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/turkish-lira-collapses-trump-tariffs-692031d5-f7cf-491d-8051-755a87677d7f.html" target="_self">Turkey is facing its worst economic crisis in decades,</a> raising fears about its impact on the more than 3.5 million Syrians who now reside there, having fled seven years of violence at home. The big picture: These woes could result in a decrease in discretionary spending on social service programs that benefit refugees. It could, for example, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="slow efforts to get Syrians into primary school and vocational training programs. " data-vars-click-url="http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/74782" data-vars-content-id="d1eaae2e-fcd3-45ff-a1b1-a26567115e8b" data-vars-headline="Turkey&#x27;s economic woes could spell trouble for Syrian refugees" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/74782" target="_blank">slow efforts to get Syrians into primary school and vocational training programs. </a>That said, the crisis may not make as substantial a difference in practice to these endeavors as some fear.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

The UN's Global Compact on Refugees, adopted late last year, floats the possibility of trade arrangements that incentivize local businesses to hire refugee labor. A trade deal between the EU and Turkey that grants access to European markets for agricultural goods produced in Turkey with a threshold level of Syrian labor could prove beneficial for both parties — and for millions of displaced Syrians.

Syrian displaced people wait to carry water canisters in the flooded Deir al-Ballut refugee camp in Afrin's countryside

Syrian displaced people in the flooded Deir al-Ballut refugee camp in Afrin's countryside, along Syria's northern border with Turkey, Feb. 11. Photo: Rami Al Sayed/AFP via Getty Images

Background: Eight years into the Syria crisis, the conflict shows no sign of ending. More than 3.5 million people have sought safety in Turkey, which now hosts more refugees than any other country in the world. The likelihood that they will be able to return home in the near future is low.

Where it stands: Turkey already has a customs union with Europe, but it covers only manufactured goods. Expanding the arrangement to cover agricultural products could open up new opportunities for refugees to join the workforce. Agreements between the EU and two other refugee-hosting countries, Jordan and Lebanon, could prove useful (if imperfect) models for how to engage the private sector in such an endeavor.

The bottom line: How Turkey fares at integrating newcomers will bear significantly on the wellbeing of millions of people and the trajectory of consequential migration flows.

Jessica Brandt is a fellow in the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution. Kemal Kirisci is director of the Center on the United States and Europe's Turkey Project at Brookings.

EU-Turkey trade compact could benefit Syrian refugees

A trade deal could incentivize local businesses to hire refugee labor.

Refugees

The UN&#x27;s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Global Compact on Refugees" data-vars-click-url="https://www.unhcr.org/events/conferences/5b3295167/official-version-final-draft-global-compact-refugees.html" data-vars-content-id="eef4bf56-153f-4288-87fc-9248eebd09bd" data-vars-headline="EU-Turkey trade compact could benefit Syrian refugees" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.unhcr.org/events/conferences/5b3295167/official-version-final-draft-global-compact-refugees.html" target="_blank">Global Compact on Refugees</a>, adopted late last year, floats the possibility of trade arrangements that incentivize local businesses to hire refugee labor. A trade deal between the EU and Turkey that grants access to European markets for agricultural goods produced in Turkey with a threshold level of Syrian labor <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="could prove beneficial for both parties" data-vars-click-url="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/02/05/a-refugee-compact-for-turkey/" data-vars-content-id="eef4bf56-153f-4288-87fc-9248eebd09bd" data-vars-headline="EU-Turkey trade compact could benefit Syrian refugees" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/02/05/a-refugee-compact-for-turkey/" target="_blank">could prove beneficial for both parties</a> — and for millions of displaced Syrians.

Kemal Kirisci

Stories

EU-Turkey trade compact could benefit Syrian refugees

Turkey's economic woes could spell trouble for Syrian refugees