National

AMMAN — Jordan is bracing for some tough times ahead as it prepares to deal with a new Israeli right-wing government led by Benjamin Netanyahu. 

Why it matters: Jordan will have to balance its existing strategic water, gas and energy deals with Israel against possible scenarios in which the next Israeli government takes steps against the Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and against Jerusalem’s holy sites.

Jordan is the custodian of the Muslim holy site in Jerusalem. 

Flashback: Relations between Jordan and Israel during Netanyahu’s previous terms as prime minister were an ongoing crisis. King Abdullah didn’t trust Netanyahu and saw his policy as one that undermines Jordan. 

What they're saying: Osama Al Sharif, chief editor of the English language daily Jordan News, told Axios the results of the Israeli elections were Jordan's worst nightmare.

“King Abdullah believes that Netanyahu is willing to carry out his threats regarding terminating the status quo understandings at the Al-Aqsa and annexing major chunks of the West Bank including the Jordan Valley, even risking the peace treaty with Jordan," he said.

Driving the news: Jordanian officials are concerned that appointing ultranationalist politicians like Itamar Ben-Gvir as the minister for internal security could lead to an escalation in Jerusalem and mainly in the Al-Aqsa mosque.

The minister of internal security is in charge of the Israeli police and policies around Jerusalem's holy sites, including the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound. 

Jordan’s former Air Force Gen. Maamoun Abu Nuwar told Axios that King Abdullah must defend the interests of Jordan and his family’s special role in protecting holy sites in Jerusalem.

State of play: Abu Nuwar says the king is unlikely to cooperate with the new Netanyahu government, insisting that “Netanyahu’s DNA is well known to the king, and it will only change for the worse now not the better.”

Nidal Qaqish, a Jordanian engineer and former member of As-Salt City Council, told Axios that Jordan’s cooperation with Israel on water and borders will become much more complicated.

Mofid Deek, a retired U.S. diplomat living in Jordan, argues that every time there is a right-wing government in Israel, the Arab states that have normalized relations with Israel go through a soul-searching, painful period.

“The raison d’etre for establishing normal relationships with Israel could diminish significantly. That puts these governments in a terrible bind with their own public," he said.

What’s next: Senior Islamist leader Atef Al-Jolani told Axios the hegemony of the radical right-wing in Israel on the religious and the national front makes Jordanians worry. 

"Jordanians expect that next phase of Netanyahu’s rule to reflect even further enmity to Jordan and its interests, leaving Jordan to have to make some tough choices in dealing with a government that will include the radical religious Zionists," he said.

Jordan braces for Netanyahu and his right-wing government

"Jordanians expect that next phase of Netanyahu’s rule to reflect even further enmity to Jordan and its interests."

Jordanian King Abdullah II speaks with Benjamin Netanyahu in Amman on Jan. 16, 2014. Photo: Handout/Jordanian Royal Court via Getty Images

Jordanian King Abdullah II speaks with Netanyahu in Amman on Jan. 16, 2014. Photo: Handout/Jordanian Royal Court via Getty Images

Abdullah II of Jordan

Israel

AMMAN — Jordan is bracing for some tough times ahead as it prepares to deal with a new Israeli right-wing government led by Benjamin Netanyahu. Why it matters: Jordan will have to balance its existing strategic water, gas and energy deals with Israel against possible scenarios in which the next Israeli government takes steps against the Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and against Jerusalem’s holy sites.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

AMMAN, Jordan — Public opinion in the Arab world is split on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with many players taking positions according to their domestic or regional political divides.

Driving the news: The majority of Arab countries kept silent or gave very careful responses after Russia began its assault on Ukraine, trying to balance their relations with the U.S., Russia and Ukraine. 

The Arab League, meanwhile, took a largely neutral position, with an emergency meeting on Sunday ending with a statement expressing “concern” regarding the “events” in Ukraine and stressing the importance of “continued coordination” to help Arab communities in Ukraine.

The big picture: Russia and Ukraine provide nearly one-quarter of the world's exports of wheat, with a significant amount sent to the Middle East and North Africa.

About 85% of Egypt's recent wheat imports, for example, came from Russia and Ukraine.

What they're saying: There is no one Arab position on the war, according to Sen. Mustafa Hamarneh, a member of the Jordanian upper house of parliament.

“Those who support [Syrian President Bashar al-Assad] and Hezbollah are in favor of Russia, irrespective of everything else, while those who believe in human rights and freedom of speech support Ukraine," he tells Axios. 

Agyyad Abu Zayed, a Syrian journalist working in Jordan, said that by and large the Syrian opposition is with Ukraine, while those supporting Assad are with Putin.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has also divided support for Ukraine. 

Hamarneh said Arab social media feeds are full of people sharing posts made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in support of Israel during the Gaza war. “This will mobilize the anti-Zelensky coalition," he said.

Dima Khatib, a Palestinian activist living in Doha, claimed it was hypocritical for the West to support Ukrainian resistance while often calling Palestinian resistance to the Israeli occupation terrorism. It's an argument echoed by other Palestinians and some of their supporters online. 

Meanwhile, opinion in Lebanon is mixed along long-standing divisions in the country. 

The pro-Hezbollah camp has sided completely with Russia, while those who do not back Hezbollah are voicing their support for Ukraine, according to Ayman Mhanna, director of the Beirut-based Samir Kassir Foundation.

Arab world divided on Russia-Ukraine

The majority of Arab countries kept silent or gave very careful responses after Russia began its assault on Ukraine.

A banner in the coastal town of Halat north of the Lebanese capital Beirut reads, high "quality flour from (friendly) Ukraine," on Feb. 26. Photo: Joseph Eid/AFP via Getty Images

Middle East

AMMAN, Jordan — Public opinion in the Arab world is split on Russia&#x27;s invasion of Ukraine, with many players taking positions according to their domestic or regional political divides.Driving the news: The majority of Arab countries kept silent or gave very careful responses after Russia began its assault on Ukraine, trying to balance their relations with the U.S., Russia and Ukraine.

AMMAN — The Jordanian government and truckers, who have been on strike for 11 days, are locked in a bitter fight over fuel prices. 

Why it matters: The truckers strike puts King Abdullah II and his government in an unenviable position: They cannot break their IMF commitment to not return to subsidized fuel prices in the country, which is almost totally dependent on oil and gas imports. 

But they also can't ignore the voices of the people, who are watching for any signs the government is not serious about the political reforms the king promised to make amid growing discontent.

Catch up quick: The strike started on Dec. 4 in the southern city of Maan. Partial strikes have since spread to other cities. 

Other transportation sectors, including bus, delivery truck and some taxi drivers have since supported the strike.

The truckers' demands largely focus on a reduction in the price of fuel. 

The strike has paralyzed most transportation to and from the crucial Aqaba port and in several other parts of the country.

Gas delivery drivers also went on strike on Monday for a single day. Buses for university students from Amman also partially stopped working, forcing some universities to suspend classes.

 State of play: On Monday, the government-controlled press, which has been generally silent on the strike, broadcasted breaking news claiming the strike was over. It quoted the head of the land transport union confirming that drivers received a fee increase and have agreed to end the strike.

But the drivers said they never signed on to the deal, which was approved by the largely pro-government appointed union head, and the strike continued. 

On Tuesday, Ahmad Safadi, speaker of the Jordanian parliament, along with transport committee members met with the striking truck drivers.

Safadi said after the meeting he and other lawmakers will seek a solution with the government.

Later that day, the government organized security-protected truckers who were willing to cross the picket lines of their fellow truckers. This was seen as an escalation by the government.

“The government looks down on workers and the public in general, and they ignored the truckers until the business community and parliament started to complain” Ahmad Awad, a Jordanian economist, told Axios.

What to watch: The government appears ready to bring down the prices of fuel but wants to wait until the end of the month, when there is a review of the prices based on market rates. 

The truckers, however, have said they aren't willing to wait. 

Jordanian truckers strike enters 11th day

The wheel of a truck in Jordan in February 2017. Photo: Salah Malkawi/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

A truck in Jordan in February 2017. Photo: Salah Malkawi/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

AMMAN — The Jordanian government and truckers, who have been on strike for 11 days, are locked in a bitter fight over fuel prices. Why it matters: The truckers strike puts King Abdullah II and his government in an unenviable position: They cannot break their IMF commitment to not return to subsidized fuel prices in the country, which is almost totally dependent on oil and gas imports.

AMMAN, Jordan — With a big aid package granted by the Trump administration about to expire, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi has traveled to Washington seeking a new and improved deal.

Why it matters: Jordan is struggling with an economic crisis and is dependent on U.S. financial assistance, which totaled $1.65 billion in 2021. A five-year memorandum of understanding (MOU) that guarantees at least $1.25 billion in annual U.S. aid expires in September.

Driving the news: Safadi's agenda this week includes a meeting with Secretary of State Tony Blinken on Thursday and several meetings with officials whose portfolios cover security, foreign aid, energy and refugee issues. He'll also meet with members of Congress, think tank experts and American Jewish leaders.

The Jordanian Foreign Ministry said Safadi would discuss the Palestinian issue and efforts to reach a political solution to the Syrian crisis, while also working toward a new MOU.

What they're saying: Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and former Middle East negotiator in multiple U.S. administrations, said that in a volatile region where at least four Arab states are in varying states of dysfunction, Jordan — despite its economic and political problems — represents a stable and important partner for the United States.

“Increasing bilateral assistance in the context of the 2018 MOU would be a small investment, and as the U.S. shifts its priorities to Asia, conveys at least a small signal that it values its regional partners," Miller said.

Mofid Deek, a retired U.S. diplomat now living in Jordan, said that he expects the total amount of U.S. government aid to Jordan to increase and that Biden has a keen interest in Jordan's stability. "There is also strong U.S.-Jordan coordination on the strategic level especially on the cause of peace in Palestine," he said.

Aaron Magid, a U.S. expert on Jordanian affairs, said that with the Hashemite kingdom's national debt climbing to around $45 billion and unemployment at 23%, securing over $1 billion in annual U.S. aid is a key priority for Jordan's foreign policy.

Jordan seeks big aid package from Biden

Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi is in Washington this week.

Ayman Safadi. Photo: Mazen Mahdi/AFP via Getty

Jordan

AMMAN, Jordan — With a big aid package granted by the Trump administration about to expire, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi has traveled to Washington seeking a new and improved deal.Why it matters: Jordan is struggling with an economic crisis and is dependent on U.S. financial assistance, which totaled $1.65 billion in 2021. A five-year <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="memorandum of understanding" data-vars-click-url="https://link.axios.com/click/26343376.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" data-vars-content-id="c9e3fbac-b159-4633-a20f-b8fc026b1512" data-vars-headline="Jordan seeks big aid package from Biden" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://link.axios.com/click/26343376.6779/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuc3RhdGUuZ292L3Utcy1yZWxhdGlvbnMtd2l0aC1qb3JkYW4vP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9bmV3c2xldHRlciZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1uZXdzbGV0dGVyX2F4aW9zdGVsYXZpdiZzdHJlYW09d29ybGQjOn46dGV4dD1JbiUyMDIwMTglMkMlMjB0aGUlMjBVLlMuJTIwYW5kJTIwSm9yZGFuJTIwc2lnbmVkJTIwYSUyMG5vbiUyRGJpbmRpbmclMjBNZW1vcmFuZHVtJTIwb2YlMjBVbmRlcnN0YW5kaW5nJTIwKE1PVSklMjB0byUyMHByb3ZpZGUlMjAlMjQ2LjM3NSUyMGJpbGxpb24lMjBpbiUyMGJpbGF0ZXJhbCUyMGZvcmVpZ24lMjBhc3Npc3RhbmNlJTIwdG8lMjBKb3JkYW4lMjBvdmVyJTIwYSUyMDUlMkR5ZWFyJTIwcGVyaW9kJTJDJTIwcGVuZGluZyUyMHRoZSUyMGF2YWlsYWJpbGl0eSUyMG9mJTIwZnVuZHMu/58af12c227fdb0d83d8b51d9Baa2f1fe5" target="_blank">memorandum of understanding</a> (MOU) that guarantees at least $1.25 billion in annual U.S. aid expires in September.

Assad (R) with UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed. Photo: UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs via Getty

AMMAN, Jordan — Egypt, Jordan and several other Arab countries are quietly lining up to tip the balance toward the return of Syria to the Arab League. 

Why it matters: The regional body suspended Syria in 2011, and most countries in the region cut ties with Bashar al-Assad's regime. As Syria is brought back into the fold, the rush to benefit from the country's post-war reconstruction is already becoming apparent.

Parts of Syria remain out of Assad's control, and the fighting is not fully over, but Assad hung onto power over a country that is now largely destroyed.

Driving the news: Last week, UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed visited Assad in Damascus. That's part of a trend of renewed engagement, including a call last month between Assad and Jordan’s King Abdullah II.

The Saudi daily Asharq Al-Awsat revealed this week what it called a "Jordan-sponsored document" on reintegrating Syria into the Arab League. It would base normalization on policy shifts from the Syrians, mainly on curbing Iran’s influence in the country and the exit of pro-Iranian militias.

Worth noting: Jordanian exports to Syria fell by two-thirds as a result of the closure of the borders between the two countries during Syria's civil war.

What they're saying: Kais Zayadin, a former Jordanian member of parliament who serves on a royal commission on modernizing Jordan's political system, says Jordan is looking to take a lead in rekindling relations with Syria.

“Jordan wants to have a special role between Damascus and the West. This fits very well with Jordan’s goal to be the leader of a new Levant approach," he said.

Zaid Nabulsi, a Jordanian lawyer and political activist, says Syria's return to the Arab fold "has become an irreversible fact."

Tagreed Odeh, a Jordanian political analyst, says it seems Jordan, the UAE and other Arab countries are all working together to prepare the ground for the return of Syria to the Arab League during the next Arab summit in Algiers.

The other side: Secretary of State Tony Blinken and his Qatari counterpart Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani both said during a press conference on Friday that they are not considering normalization at this time.

"We don’t support normalization, and again, we would emphasize to our friends and partners to consider the signals that they’re sending," Blinken said.

Between the lines: It's unclear just how hard the U.S. is actually pushing partners like the UAE and Jordan on this issue.

Bringing Syria back into the fold

Egypt, Jordan, several other Arab countries are quietly lining up to tip the balance toward the return of Syria to the Arab League.

Syria

<figure><img alt="Assad (R) with UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed. Photo: UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs via Getty" height="683" id="791d17c6-28bb-498e-9640-5e3f9bf522fc" src="https://images.axios.com/UDiz5Xma4yRBmUqVFIwNWxfd7Ro=/2021/11/17/1637171025704.jpg" width="1024"/><figcaption>Assad (R) with UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed. Photo: UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs via Getty</figcaption></figure>AMMAN, Jordan — Egypt, Jordan and several other Arab countries are quietly lining up to tip the balance toward the return of Syria to the Arab League. Why it matters: The regional body <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="suspended Syria in 2011" data-vars-click-url="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/syria-suspended-from-arab-league/2011/11/12/gIQAvqGxEN_story.html" data-vars-content-id="d4cfa452-09df-4c8c-9443-6eeeee7b1e15" data-vars-headline="Bringing Syria back into the fold" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/syria-suspended-from-arab-league/2011/11/12/gIQAvqGxEN_story.html" target="_blank">suspended Syria in 2011</a>, and most countries in the region cut ties with Bashar al-Assad&#x27;s regime. As Syria is brought back into the fold, the rush to benefit from the country&#x27;s post-war reconstruction is already becoming apparent.

Daoud Kuttab

Stories

Jordanian truckers strike enters 11th day

Jordan braces for Netanyahu and his right-wing government

Arab world divided on Russia-Ukraine

Jordan seeks big aid package from Biden

Bringing Syria back into the fold