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By all current evidence, Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was the victim of a brutal extrajudicial killing inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2. His work as a Washington Post columnist shed international light on the repressive government of Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman (MBS) — as, too, did his death.

The big picture: The basis of U.S.–Saudi relations has always been the personal relationship between the Saudi king and U.S. president. The Khashoggi affair has now put this foundation at stake: Trump and MBS face the worst crisis of confidence in the U.S.–Saudi relationship since the 9/11 terrorist attacks involving 15 Saudi nationals.

The background: Khashoggi was a highly respected journalist, editor, commentator and onetime advisor to the former Saudi ambassador to London and Washington, Prince Turki al-Faisal. He was a prominent member of the kingdom’s non-royal elite, never a revolutionary or monarchy-hater. He even welcomed, albeit with a critical eye, the daring social reforms MBS has launched and his crackdown on the kingdom’s ultra-conservative Wahhabi clerics opposing them.

Even President Trump, MBS’ most important foreign supporter, finally had to respond to the grisly details of Khashoggi’s murder, dispatching Secretary of State Pompeo to Riyadh on what will probably turn out to be a mission impossible. King Salman and his son, MBS, have so far heatedly denied any knowledge of the incident, despite failing to provide any evidence to the contrary. They may be shifting to a fallback position of a interrogation operation gone wrong.

What’s next: Both Trump and MBS will doubtless look for a way to finesse the truth to preserve a working relationship. After all, they need each other badly to contain Iran, their common nemesis. The Saudis may resort to blaming rogue elements and promise punishment, and Trump may accept this implausible explanation. 

Yes, but: The Khashoggi affair seems likely to permanently sour Trump’s enthusiasm and trust in the king and his son. While the storm might eventually subside, it augurs poorly for the future of the U.S.–Saudi relationship.

David Ottaway is a fellow in the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center.

U.S.–Saudi relations are at their lowest point since 9/11

The storm might eventually subside, but enthusiasm for MBS has soured.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (L) meets with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh, on October 16, 2018. 

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo meets with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh, on October 16, 2018. Photo: Leah Millis/AFP via Getty Images

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Jamal Khashoggi

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<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="By all current evidence" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/saudi-arabia-trump-khashoggi-foreign-policy-41bdc686-3bdf-4f4a-b583-694fa6460447.html" data-vars-content-id="d107b2a2-171e-4c6a-bf47-91f95b3fbac3" data-vars-headline="U.S.–Saudi relations are at their lowest point since 9/11" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/saudi-arabia-trump-khashoggi-foreign-policy-41bdc686-3bdf-4f4a-b583-694fa6460447.html" target="_self">By all current evidence</a>, Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was the victim of a brutal extrajudicial killing inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2. His work as a Washington Post columnist shed international light on the repressive government of Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman (MBS) — as, too, did his death.The big picture: The basis of U.S.–Saudi relations has always been the personal relationship between the Saudi king and U.S. president. The Khashoggi affair has now put this foundation at stake: Trump and MBS face the worst crisis of confidence in the U.S.–Saudi relationship since the 9/11 terrorist attacks involving 15 Saudi nationals.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has carried out the most extensive rebranding campaign ever by a Saudi royal. Since his appointment last June, he has presented Saudi Arabia as a modernizing kingdom eager to do business with Wall Street and Silicon Valley while becoming the United States' chief ally against Iranian expansionism. 

Yes, but:  President Trump has cast serious doubt over his own commitment to that vision, even before the crown prince ends his three-week, multi-city tour of the U.S.

The crown prince, who is also the defense minister, has worked to cement a relationship with Trump and his administration in the hopes of bolstering American military and political support for his campaign to roll back Iranian gains in the Arab world.

Although Trump has frequently assailed Iran’s aggressive behavior beyond its borders,  he offhandedly announced last Thursday that he would “very soon” pull out the 2,000 American troops in Syria — where, by opposing Bashar al-Assad, they are also holding the line against expansionism by Iran. The crown prince immediately cast doubt on the wisdom of such a move, which could allow Iran to establish a land corridor across Iraq and Syria to the Mediterranean Sea.

In another sign of tension, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, after his meeting with the crown prince last Thursday, declined to express support for the Saudi-led military campaign against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Mattis said “urgent efforts” were needed to end the civil war there, which has created the world's worst humanitarian crisis. 

The bottom line: Nothing Trump administration officials said during the crown prince’s visit suggests the two share an anti-Iranian strategy beyond rhetorical denunciation of its nuclear and political ambitions. After seeing up close how unpredictable Trump can be, the future king of Saudi Arabia has reason to worry about his kingdom’s 75-year-old security dependency on the U.S.

Saudi crown prince's rebranding campaign hits roadblock with Trump

MBS is betting on the U.S. to help contain Iran, but Trump may have other plans.

President Donald Trump meets with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in the Oval Office

President Trump holds up a chart of military hardware sales during his meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House on March 20, 2018. Photo: Kevin Dietsch-Pool via Getty Images

Saudi Arabia

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has carried out the most extensive rebranding campaign ever by a Saudi royal. Since his appointment last June, he has presented Saudi Arabia as a modernizing kingdom eager to do business with Wall Street and Silicon Valley while becoming the United States&#x27; chief ally against Iranian expansionism. Yes, but: President Trump has cast serious doubt over his own commitment to that vision, even before the crown prince ends his three-week, multi-city tour of the U.S.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

With the arrests of eleven princes and some 200 tycoons in Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman made clear that he will resort to any means necessary to solidify his ascent to power upon the death or abdication of his 81-year-old father, King Salman.

In the short term, this crackdown — especially the arrest of prince al-Waleed bin Talal, Saudi Arabia's richest businessman with a net worth of nearly $19 billion — could dampen foreign investment interest in the crown prince's Vision 2030 initiative. The much-heralded program aims to to deliver economic growth by strengthening private companies outside the oil sector. Key to its success is the forthcoming sale on world stock exchanges of 5% of the gigantic state oil company, Aramco, which the crown prince hopes will produce $100 billion.

Other ripple effects could well threaten the House of Saud's stability for years to come. The arrest of Prince Miteb bin Abdullah, commander of the Saudi National Guard, signals further strain on the already enormous tensions and resentments within the royal family.

There is no precedent in Saudi Arabia's history for the crown prince's sweeping purge, and other surprises will await the kingdom under a 32-year-old upstart prince of still unproven abilities.

Uncertainty looms after Saudi crown prince’s purge

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's surprise move creates new instabilities.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, May 2017. Photo: Pavel Golovkin / AP

With the arrests of eleven princes and some 200 tycoons in Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman made clear that he will resort to any means necessary to solidify his ascent to power upon the death or abdication of his 81-year-old father, King Salman.In the short term, this crackdown — especially the arrest of prince al-Waleed bin Talal, Saudi Arabia&#x27;s richest businessman with a net worth of nearly $19 billion — could dampen foreign investment interest in the crown prince&#x27;s Vision 2030 initiative. The much-heralded program aims to to deliver economic growth by strengthening private companies outside the oil sector. Key to its success is the forthcoming sale on world stock exchanges of 5% of the gigantic state oil company, Aramco, which the crown prince hopes will produce $100 billion.Other ripple effects could well threaten the House of Saud&#x27;s stability for years to come. The arrest of Prince Miteb bin Abdullah, commander of the Saudi National Guard, signals further strain on the already enormous tensions and resentments within the royal family.The bottom line:There is no precedent in Saudi Arabia&#x27;s history for the crown prince&#x27;s sweeping purge, and other surprises will await the kingdom under a 32-year-old upstart prince of still unproven abilities.

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David Ottaway

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U.S.–Saudi relations are at their lowest point since 9/11

Saudi crown prince's rebranding campaign hits roadblock with Trump

Uncertainty looms after Saudi crown prince’s purge