National

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's tour through the Caribbean reflects Taiwan's imperative to reinforce relationships with allies vulnerable to poaching by China.

The big picture: Only 17 countries continue to recognize Taiwan instead of the People’s Republic of China, and the majority are in Latin America and the Caribbean. Tsai's 10-day trip follows 2 years of bad news, as Panama, El Salvador and the Dominican Republic have all broken decades-long diplomatic ties with Taipei in order to extend official ties to Beijing.

Details: President Tsai’s "Journey of Freedom, Democracy, Sustainability," wrapping up Monday, focused on Haiti and several smaller Caribbean nations.

In Haiti, Tsai met with President Jovenel Moise, who praised Taiwan’s assistance "in agricultural and energy matters, as well as other investments essential to the development of Haiti."

Tsai's 4-day trip to St. Kitts and Nevis marked the first-ever visit by a Taiwanese president to the island of Nevis, where Tsai broke ground on a national park.

In St. Vincent and the Grenadines, President Tsai met with Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves and addressed the parliament to praise joint efforts on sustainable development.

Tsai concluded her trip in St. Lucia, where she met with government leaders and toured agricultural and infrastructure projects.

Yes, but: Notably absent from the itinerary were visits to Guatemala, Honduras and Belize — longstanding allies considered likely to switch support to China. Although these countries are not yet a lost cause, and all recently sent high-level visitors to Taiwan, Tsai's trip redoubled efforts with smaller allies.

The Trump administration has supported Taiwan and harshly criticized countries that have changed sides, but its efforts haven't reversed the larger trend.

What to watch: Taiwan’s Caribbean campaign is likely to buy time as China continues  making economic inroads across the region. However, the emphasis on photo ops, symbolism and warm words over substantive new projects leaves an opening for deeper Chinese engagement that will likely irritate Washington when it comes to pass.

Daniel P. Erikson is managing director at Blue Star Strategies and a senior fellow at the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement.

Taiwan striving to keep Caribbean allies beyond China's reach

It's one of the regions where Taiwan's diplomatic ties are strongest.

Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen waving from behind a lectern

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in Taipei. Photo: Ashley Pon/Getty Images

World

Taiwan

Expert Voices

Latin America and Latinos

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen&#x27;s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="tour through the Caribbean" data-vars-click-url="https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3749454" data-vars-content-id="97ba74b3-89c3-4abf-b02e-cfd8308b88b3" data-vars-headline="Taiwan striving to keep Caribbean allies beyond China&#x27;s reach" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3749454" target="_blank">tour through the Caribbean</a> reflects Taiwan&#x27;s imperative to reinforce relationships with allies vulnerable to poaching by China.The big picture: Only 17 countries continue to recognize Taiwan instead of the People’s Republic of China, and the majority are in Latin America and the Caribbean. Tsai&#x27;s 10-day trip follows 2 years of bad news, as Panama, El Salvador and the Dominican Republic have all broken decades-long diplomatic ties with Taipei in order to extend official ties to Beijing.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

The surprise victory of Alejandro Giammattei in Guatemala's runoff presidential election on Sunday could throw a central plank of Trump’s migration strategy into doubt.

The big picture: Giammattei campaigned on improving security, boosting economic growth, promoting socially conservative values and fighting corruption, though he opposes the renewal of a UN–backed anti-corruption commission. He said he will  seek to amend the immigration deal that outgoing President Jimmy Morales signed with President Trump, which he has called “not right for the country.”

Driving the news: Giammattei, a former prisons director and candidate for the right-wing Let’s Go party, scored a lopsided 58% of the vote, routing former first lady Sandra Torres of the National  Unity of Hope party in an election marked by low turnout and fatigue.

It was Giammattei's 4th bid for the presidency. He benefited from widespread urban distrust of Torres and took a tough-on-crime stance to appeal voters concerned about the country's pervasive violence.

For many Guatemalans, however, neither candidate offered a compelling plan to counter corruption, which contributed to weak voter enthusiasm once stronger anti-corruption advocates were eliminated from the race.

Background: After Trump threatened tariffs and remittance taxes, Morales signed a "safe third country" agreement that would prevent migrants from El Salvador and Honduras from applying for asylum in the U.S. if they do not first apply in Guatemala.

Guatemala's Constitutional Court has cast doubt on the widely unpopular deal, arguing that it requires congressional approval. Moreover, the country has few resources or legal protections for migrants.

What to watch: Once inaugurated in January 2020, Giammattei will have to address  the migration wave that has sent more than 250,000 Guatemalans to the U.S.–Mexico border since October 2018.

Despite Guatemala’s limited capacity to host asylum-seekers, Giammattei will have few options to reform the deal. He has noted that the U.S. judicial system will have to review it and indicated that he would consult with the Guatemalan congress.  

Meanwhile, the Trump administration is seeking arrangements with El Salvador and Honduras, which are likely to face similar pressure tactics.

The bottom line: As much as Giammattei’s pro-growth, law-and-order campaign may echo the Trump playbook, the two leaders seem likely to clash as migration pressures build in Guatemala.

Guatemalan election could upend Trump’s migration deal

President-elect Alejandro Giammattei has said the agreement is "not right for the country."

Alejandro Giammettei surrounded by journalists

President-elect Alejandro Giammattei speaking to press in Guatemala City. Photo: Fabricio Alonzo/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Guatemala

The surprise <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="victory of Alejandro Giammattei" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/guatemala-elects-alejandro-giammattei-president-260fe500-b094-4799-8f75-9f29c4e4af01.html" data-vars-content-id="bf4f2afa-5a9d-4ca3-9246-fe200120a77b" data-vars-headline="Guatemalan election could upend Trump’s migration deal" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/guatemala-elects-alejandro-giammattei-president-260fe500-b094-4799-8f75-9f29c4e4af01.html" target="_self">victory of Alejandro Giammattei</a> in Guatemala&#x27;s runoff presidential election on Sunday could throw a central plank of Trump’s migration strategy into doubt.The big picture: Giammattei campaigned on improving security, boosting economic growth, promoting socially conservative values and fighting corruption, though he opposes the renewal of a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="UN–backed anti-corruption commission" data-vars-click-url="https://www.apnews.com/f1854ad43baa4905b28c1deabafd860d" data-vars-content-id="bf4f2afa-5a9d-4ca3-9246-fe200120a77b" data-vars-headline="Guatemalan election could upend Trump’s migration deal" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.apnews.com/f1854ad43baa4905b28c1deabafd860d" target="_blank">UN–backed anti-corruption commission</a>. He said he will seek to amend the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="immigration deal" data-vars-click-url="https://www.npr.org/2019/07/26/745727128/trump-signs-agreement-with-guatemala-to-limit-asylum-seekers" data-vars-content-id="bf4f2afa-5a9d-4ca3-9246-fe200120a77b" data-vars-headline="Guatemalan election could upend Trump’s migration deal" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.npr.org/2019/07/26/745727128/trump-signs-agreement-with-guatemala-to-limit-asylum-seekers" target="_blank">immigration deal</a> that outgoing President Jimmy Morales signed with President Trump, which he has <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="called" data-vars-click-url="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-guatemala-election-migrants/guatemala-election-winner-sets-sights-on-changing-trump-migrant-deal-idUSKCN1V20OE" data-vars-content-id="bf4f2afa-5a9d-4ca3-9246-fe200120a77b" data-vars-headline="Guatemalan election could upend Trump’s migration deal" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-guatemala-election-migrants/guatemala-election-winner-sets-sights-on-changing-trump-migrant-deal-idUSKCN1V20OE" target="_blank">called</a> “not right for the country.”

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

The escalating standoff between Peru's president, Martín Vizcarra, and Congress is putting the country's weak political institutions to a once-in-a-generation test.

Why it matters: After the past week's rapid-fire measures and countermeasures, Peru finds itself in new and uncertain political territory — bringing the specter of instability to what has been one of the steadiest economies in Latin America.

Driving the news: Vizcarra's tense relations with Congress came to a head when he moved to dissolve the legislature and call for new elections after having failed to gain a vote of confidence for his Cabinet.

Congressional leaders condemned the move, voted to suspend Vizcarra for 12 months and nominated his vice president, Mercedes Aráoz, as the acting head of state.   

Aráoz promptly accepted the controversial promotion, but later resigned from the government completely. The heads of Peru's armed forces and national police have pledged to continue backing Vizcarra.

Background: Vizcarra has pursued a dual strategy since taking office in March 2018, following the resignation of his predecessor, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, who was under threat of impeachment.

On the one hand, Vizcarra has positioned himself as an anti-corruption avatar seeking greater transparency and accountability in the wake of several graft scandals that ripped through the country’s political elites like wildfire.

On the other hand, his tiny congressional faction has left him politically isolated and continually thwarted by the opposition.

Where it stands: Vizcarra is constitutionally eligible to serve out the remainder of the ousted Kuczynski’s term, due to end in 2021, but he has already called for early presidential and parliamentary elections in 2020.

While his decision to dissolve Congress has proved broadly popular, some have criticized it as echoing a similar 1992 decision by then-President Alberto Fujimori, a controversial figure who has spent the last several years in and out of prison.   

What to watch: The Organization of American States has said the ultimate arbiter of the dispute must be Peru’s Constitutional Tribunal. However, the rapid resignation of Aráoz means that Vizcarra’s call for early elections is likely to be recognized as a political reality sooner rather than later.

Presidential standoff jeopardizes Peru's prized political stability

It has had one of Latin America's steadiest economies.

Martin Vizcarra waving in front of a stadium crowd

Martín Vizcarra. Photo: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Peru

The escalating standoff between Peru&#x27;s president, Martín Vizcarra, and Congress is putting the country&#x27;s weak political institutions to a once-in-a-generation test.Why it matters: After the past week&#x27;s rapid-fire measures and countermeasures, Peru finds itself in new and uncertain political territory — bringing the specter of instability to what has been one of the steadiest economies in Latin America.

Guatemala's first round of presidential elections on Sunday did little to dispel the high levels of uncertainty and disillusionment plaguing the country's politics as term-limited President Jimmy Morales heads for the exit.

Why it matters: The race could provide Guatemala a much needed political reset. Morales — a political neophyte who won an upset victory in 2015 — has had a tumultuous tenure, failing to ease the social tensions driving unprecedented levels of migration from Central America’s most populous country.

Where it stands: Guatemalans are frustrated with the status quo and skeptical that the election will produce real change. Early results show a surge in voter absenteeism: Only slightly more than half of eligible voters appear to have cast ballots, down from nearly 70% in 2015 and 2011.

Two top contenders — former attorney general Thelma Aldana and congressional leader and daughter of a former dictator Zury Ríos — were knocked out of the race due to legal challenges, setting up an August 11 runoff between former first lady and congresswoman Sandra Torres and conservative figure Alejandro Gimmattei.

Torres, of the center-left National Unity of Hope party, won nearly 26% of the vote, far short of the 50% needed to win outright. Gimmattei, a former national prisons director and member of the right-wing “Let’s Go” party, garnered 14%.

Between the lines: While Guatemala's economic growth rate is expected to be 3.3% in 2019, those gains have not offset the security concerns and droughts in agricultural regions that have propelled migration.

More than 42,000 Guatemalans were apprehended at the U.S.–Mexico border in 2018, prompting drastic cuts in aid by President Trump.

What to watch: Unless Guatemala's presidential candidates can renew faith in the political system and address the root causes of migration, U.S.–Guatemalan relations are likely to remain tense even after the next president is inaugurated on January 14, 2020.

Torres has vowed to address the factors driving migration (“poverty, violence, delinquency [and] lack of political stability”), while Giammattei has proposed a “wall of prosperity” that would include investments in border regions and a plan to achieve 6% annual growth for the next 12 years.

These dueling messages are likely to continue throughout the summer, even as both candidates agree in their opposition to the UN–backed anti-corruption body CICIG, which Morales shuttered with the Trump administration's approval.

Guatemala faces runoff election as emigration wave continues

Ties with the U.S. are likely to remain tense, whatever the outcome.

Guatemalans walking outside a polling center

A polling station in San Juan Sacatepéquez, Guatemala. Photo: Johan Ordonez/AFP/Getty Images

Guatemala&#x27;s first round of presidential elections on Sunday did little to dispel the high levels of uncertainty and disillusionment plaguing the country&#x27;s politics as term-limited President Jimmy Morales heads for the exit.Why it matters: The race could provide Guatemala a much needed political reset. Morales — a political neophyte who won an upset victory in 2015 — has had a tumultuous tenure, failing to ease the social tensions driving unprecedented levels of migration from Central America’s most populous country.

Panama's voters decided to stick with known quantities in Sunday's presidential election, choosing Laurentino "Nito" Cortizo to succeed term-limited incumbent Juan Carlos Varela.

The big picture: Panama's voters were closely divided between two former cabinet ministers from the traditional political parties, bucking a regional trend toward populist political outsiders who have brought fresh if at times unpredictable leadership to countries as diverse as Brazil, Mexico and El Salvador.

Details: Cortizo, a former agriculture minister from the center-left Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD), prevailed by 33% to 31% over former foreign minister and Panama Canal Authority chairman Romulo Roux of the center-right Democratic Change Party (CD).

Roux was closely aligned with former President Ricardo Martinelli, who is currently in jail awaiting trial for charges of spying on his political opponents while in office.

Where it stands: When he takes office on July 1, Cortizo will reach the apex of a long political career that includes a decade in the National Assembly, a 2-year turn as agriculture minister under President Martín Torrijos, and an unsuccessful presidential run in 2008. Prior to this year’s campaign, Cortizo spent most of the past decade focusing on his livestock and construction businesses.

Known as a fastidious cattle rancher, Cortizo has vowed to fight corruption, improve health services, reform the education system and build a new University of Panama campus.

Another top agenda item will be reigniting economic growth, which exceeded 10% earlier in the decade but reached only 3.8% last year.

What to watch: Cortizo has pledged to strengthen Panama's relationship with the U.S. while balancing its ties to China.

The Varela government officially recognized China instead of Taiwan in June 2017, and President Xi Jinping signed 19 economic cooperation agreements with Panama during a visit last December.

The Trump administration views the Panama Canal as a key strategic gateway and has expressed concern about China's growing role in building infrastructure throughout Central America.

The bottom line: In a region bedeviled by populist upswells from both the right and the left — coupled with unrest in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Haiti — Panama's government is unlikely to make waves under Cortizo. Instead, this key U.S. ally and free trade partner will combine a business-friendly outlook with a pragmatic foreign policy to remain a stable partner in a tumultuous neighborhood.

Panama's voters opt for incremental change with President-elect Cortizo

The results buck a trend across Latin America toward populist political outsiders.

Panama's president-elect, Laurentino Cortizo. Photo: Johan Ordonez/AFP/Getty Images

Panama

Panama&#x27;s voters decided to stick with known quantities in Sunday&#x27;s presidential election, choosing Laurentino &quot;Nito&quot; Cortizo to succeed term-limited incumbent Juan Carlos Varela.The big picture: Panama&#x27;s voters were closely divided between two former cabinet ministers from the traditional political parties, bucking a regional trend toward populist political outsiders who have brought fresh if at times unpredictable leadership to countries as diverse as Brazil, Mexico and El Salvador.

Daniel P. Erikson

Stories

Presidential standoff jeopardizes Peru's prized political stability

Guatemalan election could upend Trump’s migration deal

Taiwan striving to keep Caribbean allies beyond China's reach

Guatemala faces runoff election as emigration wave continues

Panama's voters opt for incremental change with President-elect Cortizo