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In the past week, North Korea made two moves that undermined nuclear negotiations with the United States. On Friday, the regime vowed it could resume “building up nuclear forces.” And this week, Korean negotiators reportedly didn’t get on their plane to meet with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in New York, furthering a trend of ignoring U.S. diplomats just under the president.

Why it matters: If talks fail now, Pyongyang will have weathered some economic pressure, but also enjoyed a year of producing missiles and nuclear warheads, collecting praise from the U.S. president, and building new diplomatic ties with Moscow and Beijing. Missiles that have been flown only once would likely be tested fully, while South Korea’s successful arms-control process would stagger on without an allied partner.

A shift in tactics is needed to prevent collapse and break the impasse. Negotiating limits on the North Korean arsenal may not lead directly to complete disarmament, but it could reduce the threat to U.S. and allied territory:

Codifying the nuclear and missile test freeze as well as disabling or dismantling the large new reactor at Yongbyon could together limit the regime’s ability to design, produce and support more threatening weapons.

Limiting conventional arms on the peninsula could reduce the risk of war and build momentum toward deeper agreements, as Seoul’s efforts have proven.

Negotiators must present a plan for phased sanctions relief and other incentives. Insisting that real incentives wait until after complete disarmament is effectively standing in the way of a whole range of advantageous agreements. 

To accomplish these goals and prevent future snubs, the president would have to start credibly delegating authority to his diplomats, which he has never fully done.

The bottom line: Seeking achievable limits in exchange for real incentives is the last chance to limit North Korea’s nuclear arsenal. Now, it’s also the only chance to keep the talks from complete collapse.

Adam Mount is a senior fellow and director of the Defense Posture Project at the Federation of American Scientists.

U.S. needs tactical shift in North Korea talks

Seeking achievable limits is the only way to keep talks from collapsing.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in (R) listens to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo 

South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during a meeting at the presidential Blue House in Seoul on October 7, 2018. Photo: Kim Hong-Ji/AFP via Getty Images

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In the past week, North Korea made two moves that undermined nuclear negotiations with the United States. On Friday, the regime vowed it could resume <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="“building up nuclear forces.”" data-vars-click-url="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/11/03/asia-pacific/north-korea-warns-restart-nuclear-weapons-development-sanctions-arent-lifted/" data-vars-content-id="018f00a3-cfab-4a1e-a2a8-c4a9eb3cd180" data-vars-headline="U.S. needs tactical shift in North Korea talks" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/11/03/asia-pacific/north-korea-warns-restart-nuclear-weapons-development-sanctions-arent-lifted/" target="_blank">“building up nuclear forces.”</a> And this week, Korean negotiators <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="reportedly" data-vars-click-url="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/pompeos-meeting-with-north-korean-counterpart-called-off-at-last-minute/2018/11/07/2c355fca-e252-11e8-a1c9-6afe99dddd92_story.html?utm_term=.d7228e41bd25" data-vars-content-id="018f00a3-cfab-4a1e-a2a8-c4a9eb3cd180" data-vars-headline="U.S. needs tactical shift in North Korea talks" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/pompeos-meeting-with-north-korean-counterpart-called-off-at-last-minute/2018/11/07/2c355fca-e252-11e8-a1c9-6afe99dddd92_story.html?utm_term=.d7228e41bd25" target="_blank">reportedly</a> didn’t get on their plane to meet with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in New York, furthering a trend of ignoring U.S. diplomats just under the president.Why it matters: If talks fail now, Pyongyang will have weathered some economic pressure, but also enjoyed a year of producing missiles and nuclear warheads, collecting praise from the U.S. president, and building new diplomatic ties with Moscow and Beijing. Missiles that have been flown only once would likely be tested fully, while South Korea’s successful arms-control process would stagger on without an allied partner.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

Talks with North Korea present a long list possible pitfalls for the U.S. Since Kim Jong-un's offer, President Trump has exacerbated the risks by accepting the invitation outright, issuing overconfident statements and replacing the cautious Rex Tillerson with the pliant Mike Pompeo as secretary of state.

Why it matters: The State Department exists to ensure that the president arrives at summits like this with a strong hand, by nailing down favorable terms and negotiation strategy. Ignoring this expertise will see Trump striding blithely toward potential traps.

Strengthen its rule by meeting with Trump on equal footing

Convince Beijing that sanctions are no longer needed

Exacerbate friction in the U.S.-South Korea alliance

Roll back U.S. military presence in Korea

Embarrass Trump by testing missiles before the summit

What's next: So far, the U.S. has only fallen into the first trap — but the others loom. The North Koreans can accomplish the rest by embarrassing Trump and causing him to walk away from the table first. Reneging on their commitment to South Korea to denuclearize could be enough, even if Pyongyang puts a modest but reasonable offer on the table. Or they could maneuver an impulsive president into committing to reduce U.S. forces on the peninsula.

The traps Kim can spring on Trump

Any number of provocations could derail talks and lead Trump to walk away.

Kim Jong-un and military leaders at parade

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attending a military parade. Photo: AFP / KCNA via KNS

Talks with North Korea present a long list possible pitfalls for the U.S. Since Kim Jong-un&#x27;s offer, President Trump has exacerbated the risks by accepting the invitation outright, issuing overconfident statements and replacing the cautious Rex Tillerson with the pliant Mike Pompeo as secretary of state.Why it matters: The State Department exists to ensure that the president arrives at summits like this with a strong hand, by nailing down favorable terms and negotiation strategy. Ignoring this expertise will see Trump striding blithely toward potential traps.

President Trump said on Twitter Monday he has "confidence that Kim Jong-un will honor the contract we signed" for the "denuclearization of North Korea." But in fact, Pyongyang has offered only a series of gradual, reciprocal steps unlikely to lead to full disarmament.

The details: After the Trump–Kim summit in Singapore and three Pyongyang visits by Secretary of State Pompeo, there is still little momentum to dismantle the nuclear program. North Korea has not agreed to stop nuclear and missile developments; open satellite imagery shows it is expanding its capacity to produce plutonium and uranium and to deploy a larger missile force; and the missile test site it offered to dismantle stands intact.

What's next: The current tack is plainly inviable. At some point, Trump will likely feel betrayed or decide he has more to gain politically by reverting to threats. North Korea's capabilities will continue to develop and the risk of war will rise precipitously.

Yes, but: Even if disarmament is unlikely, a shift in tactics could significantly limit the threat. The U.S. team could verifiably codify the nuclear and missile-test freeze, prevent North Korea’s new reactor from opening and constrain the regime’s menacing conventional forces. Unlike the progress to date, that would be a real accomplishment.

Adam Mount (@ajmount) is a senior fellow and director of the Defense Posture Project at the Federation of American Scientists.

With North Korea progress stalled, new course could still reduce threat

Mike Pompe and Kim Yong Chol walk into meeting room

Secretary of State Pompeo and Kim Yong Chol, North Korean senior ruling party official and former intelligence chief, at their meeting in Pyongyang on July 7, 2018. Photo: Andrew Harnik/AFP via Getty Images

President Trump said <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="on Twitter" data-vars-click-url="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1016327387154395138" data-vars-content-id="4e1c4cc1-bda6-404d-ad9e-3ebd15ff374f" data-vars-headline="With North Korea progress stalled, new course could still reduce threat" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1016327387154395138" target="_blank">on Twitter</a> Monday he has &quot;confidence that Kim Jong-un will honor the contract we signed&quot; for the &quot;denuclearization of North Korea.&quot; But in fact, Pyongyang has offered only a series of gradual, reciprocal steps unlikely to lead to full disarmament.The details: After the Trump–Kim summit in Singapore and three Pyongyang visits by Secretary of State Pompeo, there is still little momentum to dismantle the nuclear program. North Korea has not agreed to stop nuclear and missile developments; open satellite imagery shows it is expanding its capacity to produce plutonium and uranium and to deploy a larger missile force; and the missile test site it offered to dismantle stands intact.

Less than a month ago, President Trump was standing on North Korean soil with Kim Jong-un. This week, North Korea carried out 2 more tests of an advanced missile first shown in May, but to a longer range — demonstrating that its arsenal continues to improve even as disarmament talks nominally continue.

Where it stands: South Korean President Moon Jae-in has spoken of disarmament and peace as “irreversible” processes, and Trump apparently assumes that the specifics of an agreement will sort themselves out, thanks to his personal relationship with Kim Jong-un. But it's clear that Kim has other plans.

What's new: The missiles North Korea tested this week followed a “depressed” trajectory, flying at a lower altitude to reach potential targets faster or maneuver around missile defenses.

The tests show that the regime is thinking seriously about its ability to strike protected targets in allied countries at short notice.

These are surprisingly advanced capabilities for a country that only 2 years ago possessed a rudimentary missile arsenal.

Between the lines: Many of North Korea's steps over the last 6 months have seemed designed to ratchet up pressure on the Trump administration to make concessions.

Without a clear agreement to restrict nuclear and missile tests, North Korea is almost certain to test more missiles, likely of longer-range or more sophisticated systems.

The regime has set an end-of-year deadline for talks, after which they say tests will resume in full.

The bottom line: Sweeping these tests under the rug is not preserving negotiations but propelling them toward eventual collapse. If the tests aren't addressed during new talks, the U.S. could again find itself at the brink of war, facing an adversary even more capable than before.

Ignoring North Korean missile tests could hamper nuclear talks

It used to be unthinkable to negotiate while missiles are flying. Now it's routine.

woman standing next to a television showing a missile launch

Footage of a North Korean missile launch playing on a television in Seoul, South Korea. Photo: Jung Yeon-Je/AFP/Getty Images

North Korea missile program

Less than a month ago, President Trump was <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="standing on North Korean soil" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/trump-meets-kim-jong-un-at-korean-dmz-handshake-7bd2ea0b-4083-47d0-8d07-eb8d876d011e.html" data-vars-content-id="670d8b36-289e-4f68-bea4-aa17726d54d7" data-vars-headline="Ignoring North Korean missile tests could hamper nuclear talks" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/trump-meets-kim-jong-un-at-korean-dmz-handshake-7bd2ea0b-4083-47d0-8d07-eb8d876d011e.html" target="_self">standing on North Korean soil</a> with Kim Jong-un. This week, North Korea <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="carried out 2 more tests" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/north-korea-fires-2-missiles-into-sea-of-japan-seoul-says-64e9d2b3-dbbe-4b85-94f9-8b428edc1f7d.html" data-vars-content-id="670d8b36-289e-4f68-bea4-aa17726d54d7" data-vars-headline="Ignoring North Korean missile tests could hamper nuclear talks" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/north-korea-fires-2-missiles-into-sea-of-japan-seoul-says-64e9d2b3-dbbe-4b85-94f9-8b428edc1f7d.html" target="_self">carried out 2 more tests</a> of an advanced missile first shown in May, but to a longer range — demonstrating that its arsenal continues to improve even as disarmament talks nominally continue.Where it stands: South Korean President Moon Jae-in has spoken of disarmament and peace as “irreversible” processes, and Trump apparently assumes that the specifics of an agreement will sort themselves out, thanks to his personal relationship with Kim Jong-un. But it&#x27;s clear that Kim has other plans.

North Korea has been remarkably successful in using its negotiations to divide U.S. alliances in Northeast Asia, raising the stakes for South Korean President Moon Jae-in's White House visit today.

The backdrop: After a vibrant North-South summit at Panmunjom in April, Pyongyang has pivoted to shovel abuse onto its neighbor. The North canceled a promised meeting, assailed South Korea’s participation in military exercises, refused to invite South Korean reporters to the closure of its nuclear test site and demanded repatriation of North Koreans. Kim Jong-un is hoping Moon and Trump will blame each other for his bad behavior.

Seoul's reaction, and a year of poor management from Washington, have exposed widening fissures in the alliance. Canceling South Korea's participation in military exercises may be read as acquiescence to a threat.

Hopefully, today’s summit will see the White House take a decisive stand against the North’s bullying of a U.S. ally and insist on continued inter-Korean progress. President Moon's "peace regime" is essential to managing the risk of war on the peninsula and working toward a tolerable North Korea — both primary American interests. Moon is trying to contain a major threat to the safety of his people; he should not have to think of Trump as another.

If Trump doesn't take a stand, Kim Jong-un will see the planned summit not as a starting point for disarmament but as a chance to end the U.S.–South Korea alliance forever.

To succeed with North Korea, U.S. must stand with the South

Kim Jong-un can't be allowed to further erode U.S.–South Korea ties.

Presidents Moon Jae-in and Donald Trump shake hands at White House

South Korean President Moon Jae-in and President Trump in the Oval Office on May 22, 2018. Photo by Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images

Adam Mount

Stories

Ignoring North Korean missile tests could hamper nuclear talks

U.S. needs tactical shift in North Korea talks

With North Korea progress stalled, new course could still reduce threat

To succeed with North Korea, U.S. must stand with the South

The traps Kim can spring on Trump