National

Some have interpreted Gov. Gavin Newsom's win in the California recall election as a mandate for Democrats to go strong on COVID in their election campaigns. 

The big picture: Supporting COVID measures to protect the public is the right stance for any elected official regardless of how the votes may fall. 

But there is little evidence to suggest it is a winning campaign platform for Democrats in purple states, or for that matter, that Newsom might not have achieved the same result in Democrat-heavy California without his positions on COVID.

Driving the news: Nationally, according to our new KFF Vaccine Monitor, Democrats retain a slight edge over Republicans when it comes to who voters see as having the better approach to handling the pandemic.

But independents are divided, with 32% preferring what they see as the Democratic Party's approach, 27% the Republican Party's approach, and another 27% saying they prefer neither. 

While most independent voters (61%) say the U.S. response to the pandemic hasn’t changed which party's candidates to support in future elections, 21% say it makes them more likely to support Republican candidates and 15% say it makes them more likely to support Democrats.

Between the lines: Independents also see the hot button COVID issues differently than Democrats do. 

For example, 77% of Democrats say employers should require employees to get vaccinated unless they have a medical exemption, compared with 44% of independents who say the same thing.        

51% of independents say schools should require students and staff to wear masks compared with 83% of Democrats who say that.

State of play: Democratic candidates also have many other health issues to campaign on with wider support across the political spectrum, from drug price negotiation to Medicaid expansion to expanding Medicare benefits for seniors to strengthening ACA coverage and services for the disabled, assuming they pass some or all of those measures.

Almost 80% of the American people say they expect the U.S. will learn to live with an endemic lower level pandemic more like the flu, and more effective treatments in pill form are on the horizon. 

That suggests the administration and Democrats can lay out a path forward voters will now accept as success on COVID without totally eradicating the virus in the U.S.

Republicans will rally their base using the response to COVID to mobilize anti-government and anti-administration fervor. But it is not at all clear that is a winning general election strategy. 

The bottom line: The California recall shows that Democrats can also rally their base around strong public health measures. 

But the general election will look nothing like a California recall with many purple states in play, and for both sides, by the time the midterm election takes shape, it may be that COVID is not the galvanizing issue it is today.

The California recall is not a harbinger of what's coming on COVID

The California recall shows that Democrats can also rally their base around strong public health measures.  But the general election will look nothing like a California recall.

Illustration of the California state flag with COVID-19 replacing the star and the bear wearing a mask.

Kaiser Family Foundation

Coronavirus

Some have interpreted Gov. Gavin Newsom&#x27;s win in the California recall election as a mandate for Democrats to go strong on COVID <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="in their election campaigns" data-vars-click-url="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/perspective/why-the-california-recall-is-not-a-harbinger-of-what-is-to-come-on-covid-as-a-campaign-issue" data-vars-content-id="12a6f102-c072-4ce9-ae04-eaa0e5b2e675" data-vars-headline="The California recall is not a harbinger of what&#x27;s coming on COVID" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/perspective/why-the-california-recall-is-not-a-harbinger-of-what-is-to-come-on-covid-as-a-campaign-issue" target="_blank">in their election campaigns</a>. The big picture: Supporting COVID measures to protect the public is the right stance for any elected official regardless of how the votes may fall.

The U.S. faces a range of health care flashpoints — unaffordable drugs, opioids, vaping — as we debate whether to adopt universal care. For now, the Affordable Care Act is the law of the land, but Republicans want to issue it a final death blow.

Health

Reproduced from KFF Covid-19 Vaccine Monitor; Chart: Jacque Schrag/Axios

As the push begins to vaccinate children 5–11 against COVID, a similar share of parents start off enthusiastic about vaccinating their kids as the share of adults did right before their vaccines were authorized back in December of 2020. 

What's happening: Enthusiasm and vaccination rates will grow just as they did for adults.

But the size of the group saying they definitely will not vaccinate their kids at the starting gate is about twice as large as it was for adults, and the population that needs convincing — mostly younger adult parents —  is a tougher sell than the general adult population has been.

By the numbers: 27% of parents say they will get their 5-to-11-year-olds vaccinated right away according to our October KFF Vaccine Monitor Report.  

That's not very different from the 30% who said the same thing about their 12–15 year olds in April just before vaccines for that group were authorized.

And it’s not far off at all from the 34% of adults back in December 2020 who said they would get vaccinated right away.

The share of parents who said they will "wait and see" (33%) is similar to the share of adults who said that (39%). Many parents of younger children will likely overcome their reticence as they see other children they know vaccinated without problems, just as adults who eventually got vaccinated did.

But, but, but: But the share of parents of younger children (30%) saying they will "definitely not" vaccinate their kids is twice as large as the share of adults who said they would not get vaccinated back in December of 2020 (15%). 

And younger adults, the parents of kids 5–11, are less likely to be vaccinated themselves than adults overall. That may be an indicator of their willingness to vaccinate their kids.

The intrigue: One potential influence on vaccinating kids that isn't being discussed and could be utilized: grandparents (especially grandmothers). 

86% of adults 65 and older have had their shots, and they could play a role as advocates for vaccinating kids in communities and families as they often do in public health initiatives around the world.   

The bottom line: It will take some time and a concerted outreach effort by pediatricians, schools, local media, public health groups and other trusted sources of information if vaccination of children 5–11 is to reach the levels we have seen for adults.

Mixed prospects for vaccinating children

As the push begins to vaccinate children 5-11 against COVID, a similar share of parents start off enthusiastic about vaccinating their kids as the share of adults did right before their vaccines were authorized back in December of 2020.

Food and Drug Administration (FDA)

As the push begins to vaccinate children 5–11 against COVID, a similar share of parents start off enthusiastic about vaccinating their kids as the share of adults did right before their vaccines were authorized back in December of 2020. What&#x27;s happening: Enthusiasm and vaccination rates will grow just as they did for adults.<ul><li>But the size of the group saying they definitely will not vaccinate their kids at the starting gate is about twice as large as it was for adults, and the population that needs convincing — mostly younger adult parents —  is a tougher sell than the general adult population has been.</li></ul>By the numbers: 27% of parents say they will get their 5-to-11-year-olds vaccinated right away according to our <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="October KFF Vaccine Monitor Report" data-vars-click-url="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-october-2021" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-october-2021" target="_blank">October KFF Vaccine Monitor Report</a>.  <ul><li>That&#x27;s not very different from the 30% who said the same thing about their 12–15 year olds in April just before vaccines for that group were authorized.</li><li>And it’s not far off at all from the 34% of adults back in December 2020 who said they would get vaccinated right away.</li></ul>The share of parents who said they will &quot;wait and see&quot; (33%) is similar to the share of adults who said that (39%). Many parents of younger children will likely overcome their reticence as they see other children they know vaccinated without problems, just as adults who eventually got vaccinated did.But, but, but: But the share of parents of younger children (30%) saying they will &quot;definitely not&quot; vaccinate their kids is twice as large as the share of adults who said they would not get vaccinated back in December of 2020 (15%). <ul><li>And younger adults, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="the parents of kids 5–11" data-vars-click-url="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-september-2021/" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-september-2021/" target="_blank">the parents of kids 5–11</a>, are less likely to be vaccinated themselves than adults overall. That may be an indicator of their willingness to vaccinate their kids.</li></ul>The intrigue: One potential influence on vaccinating kids that isn&#x27;t being discussed and could be utilized: grandparents (especially grandmothers). <ul><li>86% of adults 65 and older have had their shots, and they could play a role as advocates for vaccinating kids in communities and families as they often do in public health initiatives around the world.   </li></ul>The bottom line: It will take some time and <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="a concerted outreach effort " data-vars-click-url="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/vaccinating-children-ages-5-11-policy-considerations-for-covid-19-vaccine-rollout/" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/vaccinating-children-ages-5-11-policy-considerations-for-covid-19-vaccine-rollout/" target="_blank">a concerted outreach effort </a>by pediatricians, schools, local media, public health groups and other trusted sources of information if vaccination of children 5–11 is to reach the levels we have seen for adults.

Full FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine can provide a big boost to vaccination efforts or a more modest one — depending on how it is handled when the decision comes down.

Between the lines: If FDA approval is left to be interpreted by the public through the countless channels of communication and misinformation people use to digest vaccine information, the effect of the decision will be much more modest or even muddled.

If, on the other hand, the president and federal health officials, state and local officials, and public health experts use it as an opportunity to refresh the vaccine message, it could provide a big boost to vaccination efforts. 

By the numbers: Three in ten of the unvaccinated (31%) report in our KFF Vaccine Monitor surveys that they would be more likely to get vaccinated if the FDA moved vaccines from emergency use to full authorization.

Many unvaccinated people worry that the vaccines are experimental and fears about the safety of the vaccine are a major reason some groups are hesitant to get vaccinated. 

More than half of the unvaccinated are also unsure what the status of FDA authorization is. 

A lack of FDA authorization has allowed the idea that the vaccines are unsafe or ineffective to fester.

FDA authorization offers an opportunity to aggressively address safety and efficacy concerns and clear up substantial public confusion.

Authorization could provide justification and cover for employers, including hospitals, that have previously faced blowback from some employees to move ahead with mandates.

It could also boost vaccinations by emboldening more local governments — such as what we've seen in states like California— to move ahead with passports and mandates. 

Bottom line: It’s the next — and probably the last — big opportunity to sharpen and drive home a clear message that the COVID vaccines are safe and effective.

How the messaging around FDA approval could boost COVID shots

FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine can provide a big boost to vaccination efforts or a more modest one — depending on how it is handled when the approval comes down.

Illustration of a syringe drawing vaccine out of a vial.

COVID-19

Full FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine can provide a big boost to vaccination efforts or a more modest one — depending on how it is handled when the decision comes down.Between the lines: If FDA approval is left to be interpreted by the public through the countless channels of communication and misinformation people use to digest vaccine information, the effect of the decision will be much more modest or even muddled.

Reproduced from KFF; Chart: Axios Visuals

Parents are much more likely to report their kids are experiencing negative effects if they are going to school virtually during the pandemic than if they attend school in person.

Why it matters: The new findings from the KFF Vaccine Monitor underscore the importance of keeping kids in school in person, which means doing it safely with masking for younger children and school staff despite controversies over mask requirements.

By the numbers: Almost half (47%) of parents whose kids attended school virtually or a mix of in-person and virtual during the last school year say they fell behind academically compared with a quarter (26%) of parents whose kids attended all or mostly in person.

46% of parents say their kids attending schools virtually fell behind in their social and emotional development compared with 31% of kids who attended school in person.

One in five (22%) parents of kids who went to school say their kids experienced mental health or behavioral problems due to COVID, but the number rose to 39% for kids whose school experience was largely through a computer screen.

Analysis of the data showed that how children got their education (in-person or online) explained these differences in academic performance and wellbeing reported by parents, even when accounting for differences in the parent’s income or education or race or whether the schools were public or private.

The findings also reinforce the urgency of getting 12- to 18-year-olds — and then younger children — as well as school personnel vaccinated as soon as possible so children can safely return to school.

That's where their parents report they experience both better academic and mental health outcomes.

The health case for getting kids back to school in person

Parents are much more likely to report their kids are experiencing negative effects if they are going to school virtually.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

Parents are much more likely to report their kids are experiencing negative effects if they are going to school virtually during the pandemic than if they attend school in person.Why it matters: The new findings from the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="KFF Vaccine Monitor" data-vars-click-url="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-the-impact-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic-on-the-wellbeing-of-parents-and-children/" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-the-impact-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic-on-the-wellbeing-of-parents-and-children/" target="_blank">KFF Vaccine Monitor</a> underscore the importance of keeping kids in school in person, which means doing it safely with masking for younger children and school staff despite controversies over mask requirements.

Data: KFF September 2021 Vaccine Monitor; Chart: Jacque Schrag/Axios

Conservative media sometimes blame the problem of the unvaccinated on people of color, but the data show vaccine resistance is mostly about red America and younger adults now.

Why it matters: The numbers show a much different story about where we still need to be focusing our vaccination efforts.

By the numbers: 59% of the unvaccinated are Republicans, 64% are white and 46% have a high school education or less. More than half of the unvaccinated live in suburbs with another 27% living in rural areas.

By contrast, 14% are Black, 16% are Hispanic, and 27% live in cities.  

Between the lines: These unvaccinated adults tend towards COVID denialism and often see their decision not to get the vaccination as an expression of their personal freedom. 

When they do get vaccinated, persuasion and information are not moving them nearly as much as seeing family members, friends and neighbors get sick, go to the hospital, and die, and seeing local news reports about their local hospitals overwhelmed with COVID patients.

Employer mandates are another reality influencing their behavior as companies who have instituted them report their employees are choosing paychecks over their vaccine resistance.   

We can't know what vaccine resistance in red America would look like today were it not for the efforts of former President Trump to deny the seriousness of the pandemic and of several Republican governors to echo similar views and stand in the way of public health measures like mask orders or mandates.  

The intrigue: Then there is another group who also make up a significant share of the unvaccinated: younger adults. Nearly 40% of the unvaccinated are 30–49 years old and another 27% are 18–29. 

These are the groups who get a lot of their COVID information from social media and are particularly prone to myths and misinformation. They will make the critical decisions about vaccination of the next big group of unvaccinated Americans, children.

Nearly half (48%) of parents of children ages 12–17 say their child has received at least one dose of a vaccine.

With Pfizer's clinical trials showing their COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective for children ages five to eleven, at this early stage about a third of parents (34%) say they will vaccinate their 5-to-11-year-old child "right away" once a vaccine is authorized for their age group.  

It is unclear whether unvaccinated parents will be equally cautious about vaccinating their kids or more likely to put their qualms about vaccination aside to protect them as they see more and more stories about children's hospitals filling up and schools closing as children and staff are infected.

The bottom line: Equity requires a continuing heavy emphasis on vaccination in communities of color where there is a disproportionate risk for bad outcomes from infection with COVID and historical structural inequities. 

However, if the vaccination effort is to go where the bulk of the problem is, that's now mostly red America, younger adults and their children.

A look at who is still not vaccinated against COVID

Conservative media sometimes blame the problem of the unvaccinated <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="on people of color" data-vars-click-url="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/aug/26/dan-patrick/no-you-cant-tie-present-covid-surge-black-populati/" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/aug/26/dan-patrick/no-you-cant-tie-present-covid-surge-black-populati/" target="_blank">on people of color</a>, but the data show vaccine resistance is mostly about red America and younger adults now.Why it matters: The numbers show a much different story about where we still need to be focusing our vaccination efforts.

Drew Altman, Kaiser Family Foundation

Stories

Mixed prospects for vaccinating children

A look at who is still not vaccinated against COVID

The California recall is not a harbinger of what's coming on COVID

The health case for getting kids back to school in person

How the messaging around FDA approval could boost COVID shots