Democrat locked in Deep South Senate stunner
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U.S. Senate candidate Scott Colom speaks on November 4 in Jackson, Mississippi. Photo: Rogelio V. Solis/Getty Images
One of the biggest nail-biters of the 2026 election isn't playing out in a purple state, but crimson Mississippi, where Democrat Scott Colom is trying to pull off a Magnolia State upset.
The big picture: It's one of the most remarkable currents of Tuesday's blue wave. The race pitted Colom, a Democratic district attorney powered by grassroots clout, against incumbent Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith in a state Trump won by some 23 points in 2024.
The big picture: The coalition Colom built with his viral ads and the historic tenor of his candidacy faces the ultimate Deep South test.
- The race remains too close to call.
- "The flag has already been planted in Mississippi that a new day has arrived, and whether these final votes carry Scott Colom into that victory column, we will find out," says Nadine Smith, president and CEO of Color Of Change. "But … change has arrived."
Follow the money: Colom's was one of the red-state races that drew the attention of Florida attorney Steve Pajcic, whose family-run super PAC New Deal for All sought to boost Dems in under-the-radar races.
- Mississippi, where they invested around $1.1 million, was ideal "in size and in potential," he tells Axios. That money went far on Mississippi's less-expensive airwaves.
- The most-aired ad in the closing week featured an Epstein survivor condemning Hyde-Smith, Axios' Donica Phifer reported. New Deal for All paid for the ad, which inundated Mississippi's TV markets.
Catch up quick: In October, Axios reported that Senate Republicans were weighing a cash infusion into the race. The GOP Senate Leadership Fund eventually made an investment.
- Democrats' Senate Majority PAC announced a $1.2 million ad campaign, and Colom also drew party heavy-hitters like former Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Clinton for appearances.
- Former President Obama also cut an ad.
Zoom out: The race's seismic nature is also fueled by history. Colom would be Mississippi's first Black senator since Reconstruction, and its first Democrat elected to the Senate since the 1980s.
- Colom's campaign leaned into the fight for Black Americans' right to vote, producing an ad about civil rights leader Medgar Evers and how his efforts ultimately cost the NAACP's first field officer his life.
- "You can't talk about the struggle for Black freedom without talking about Mississippi, and that is why the symbolism of this moment is so powerful," Smith says.
Flashback: Hyde-Smith set the stage for her dragged-out drama with Colom in 2023: She blocked former President Joe Biden's nomination of Colom to be a U.S. District Court Judge for the Northern District of Mississippi — despite fellow Republican Sen. Roger Wicker backing him.
Black Mississippians favored Colom 91% to Hyde-Smith's 7% per New York Times voter trend estimates, something political analysts have said was key for a Democrat to win: strong Black turnout, combined with a quarter of white Mississippians' support.
- The Supreme Court's ruling limiting the Voting Rights Act, empowering Republican redistricting and diluting Black votes, also pushed Black voters to the polls, Smith said.
- The SCOTUS ruling awoke "a giant," Smith said. "People were not going to be discouraged; they were going to be galvanized."
What we're watching: Pajcic tells Axios that the 2026 vote is a door to historic moments.
- "It's a new Mississippi, and it goes with a new South Carolina, a new Georgia, a new North Carolina, new Texas," Pajcic says.
- "We've got a new South."
Go deeper: Democrats poised to break GOP's 16-year grip on statehouses
