Democrats poised to break GOP's 16-year grip on statehouses
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Democrats are on track to take control of a majority of legislative chambers, ending 16 years of Republican dominance over America's statehouses.
- If current leads hold, 75% of Americans will live in a state with a Democratic governor, and 53% will live in Democratic trifectas.
Why it matters: Statehouses are the front line of American federalism, and Tuesday's gains dramatically expand Democrats' power to increase minimum wages, protect abortion access, and set voting rules ahead of 2028 for most Americans.
Driving the news: The party is set to flip 12 legislative chambers, dismantle five Republican state trifectas, shatter 11 GOP supermajorities and build 12 of its own, according to AP returns as of 6pm ET on Wednesday.
- If leads hold, Democrats will control the governor's office and both chambers in five of the seven 2024 presidential battlegrounds: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
- They have also broken Republican one-party rule in the sixth (Georgia) and flipped the House in the seventh (North Carolina).
Democrats flipped five GOP-held governorships (Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Texas) and lead in Alaska.
- Republicans haven't flipped any, despite targeting Arizona, Michigan, Oregon and Wisconsin. Kansas, where Democrat Cindy Holscher was leading by about half a point Wednesday evening, is uncalled.
The big picture: Ever since the 2010 Tea Party wave, Republicans have used their grip on statehouses to reshape American life: banning abortion, loosening gun laws, restricting collective bargaining and expanding private-school vouchers.
- They drew maps that kept them in power even in years Democrats won more votes statewide.
- Tuesday's Democratic gains broke that firewall.
By the numbers: Republicans entered Election Day with 23 trifectas (control of the governor's office and both chambers) to Democrats' 16. If leads hold, Democrats will have 22 and Republicans 18.
- 24% of Americans will live under a GOP trifecta, down from 42%.
- Democrats will control 51 of 99 chambers, up from 39. Republicans will control 46, down from 57. (Minnesota's House was tied, and Alaska's Senate and House have been controlled by a bipartisan coalition.)
A combined 5,000-vote swing across six states would have given Democrats control of six more legislative chambers.
Zoom in: Democrats won veto-proof majorities against Republican governors in both Vermont chambers and the New Hampshire House, and sit one seat short in the New Hampshire Senate.
- Republicans lost two-thirds majorities in eight chambers, including the Iowa and Kansas Houses, where Democratic governors' vetoes would now stick. In Kansas, that depends on Holscher winning.
- Democrats built supermajorities in nine more chambers, including Arizona's Senate and in states they already govern.
Policies Democrats could reshape
Paychecks: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin still use the $7.25 federal minimum wage.
- Pennsylvania's House has passed increases before, and the GOP Senate didn't take them up.
- Wisconsin Democrats can repeal what's left of Act 10, the 2011 law that stripped most public workers of collective bargaining. A judge struck down most of it in 2024, and that ruling is on appeal.
- Nevada Democrats can revive a paid leave bill the Republican governor vetoed.
Abortion: New Democratic attorneys general in Georgia and Texas will decide how hard to defend their states' abortion bans in court and whether Texas keeps pursuing doctors who mail pills from shield-law states.
- In Iowa and Ohio, and in Kansas if Holscher wins, Democratic governors can veto new restrictions.
Schools: Arizona Democrats can cap the state's universal voucher program, which Gov. Katie Hobbs has tried and failed to rein in.
- Texas' new $1 billion voucher program might survive because the GOP held the state Senate, but now Democrats will have a say in how it's funded.
Elections: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin bar officials from processing mail ballots before Election Day. That rule is a big reason both states' counts can drag on for days.
- Democratic trifectas in both states can change it before 2028.
- New Democratic secretaries of state in Georgia, Ohio and Indiana will run those states' presidential elections.
Yes, but: In Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas, divided government means more vetoes than new laws.
- Several new majorities are razor-thin. Pennsylvania's Senate is 26-24 and Wisconsin's is 18-15.
- New Democratic governors also inherit the Medicaid and SNAP cuts in last year's GOP megabill, and backfilling them would come out of state budgets.
The bottom line: Republicans spent 16 years building a statehouse majority. Democrats erased it in one night, and now have two years to show voters what they'll do with it.
