Trump vanishes from GOP campaign ads
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Republicans on the ballot this cycle have all but stopped mentioning President Trump in their campaign ads, according to an Axios analysis of broadcast advertising data from AdImpact.
Why it matters: Trump has tried to make the 2026 midterms a referendum on his presidency. His party has run the other way.
The big picture: Ads from both parties in Senate, House and gubernatorial races have shifted from a heavy focus on Trump during the primaries to a much greater emphasis on the economy in the general election.
- Both parties have also leaned much more heavily into health care, with a noticeable increase among House Republicans.
By the numbers: The drop-off is steepest among Republicans, and especially in House races.
- Trump appeared in 66% of House Republicans' primary ads but shows up in just 3% of their general election ads.
- In Senate races, Republican ads mentioning him fell from 77% to 22%.
- Governor's races saw the same shift: Republican ads mentioning Trump fell 34 percentage points.
Democrats have also pulled back from Trump, though less dramatically.
- Trump appeared in 45% of Democratic primary ads, but just 18% of their general election ads.
Zoom in: Republican candidates are mentioning some of Trump's signature issues less than during the primaries.
- The share of Republican ads mentioning immigration has dropped 20 percentage points in Senate races and 14 points in House races.
- Ads referencing law enforcement fell from 11% of Republican Senate primary ads to 6% in the general election, even as their mentions of crime increased.
Between the lines: Candidates often lean on the country's most prominent political figure in primaries, then pivot to policy issues in the general election.
- But this year's drop-off stands out given how hard Trump has pushed to tie himself to the midterms.
- He has urged voters to pretend he's on the ballot and essentially demanded ads running during the Republican midterm convention in September feature him.
Of note: In this analysis, primary ads are broadcast ads that aired before a race's primary. General election ads aired between the primary and Oct. 26.
- The trends may be even more pronounced in ads running through Election Day.
The bottom line: Most Republicans have been too scared to tell Trump how unpopular he is, Axios reported. But their ad receipts don't lie.
