"We're stuck:" GOP accepts Trump's all-about-me midterms

The big picture: Their timidity aside, Republicans need Trump's low-propensity voters to turn out. So they're going along with a Trump-focused strategy that many believe could cost them credibility — along with seats in the House and Senate.

• "We have no choice. We're stuck on the boat with him whether we like it or not," said a top Republican campaign official who's in contact with Trump's political operation.
• "Now, a rising tide raises all boats," the official added. "But the only ones who sound sure about the tide rising is the White House."

Driving the news: At Trump's urging, the GOP on Wednesday and Thursday is hosting an unprecedented midterm convention in Dallas, headlined by the president.

Zoom in: Trump plans to speak both nights at the convention. He's also the star of his political operation's first two TV ads:

• The first 30-second ad, called "Toughest Guy," is all about you-know-who.
• The second, labeled "Tax Cut Prices," features Trump as well and would be more conventional for a campaign in which he's on the ballot.

Inside the room: Trump essentially demanded the ads focus on him because midterms are referendums on a president anyway, and he wanted to tout his accomplishments, The Atlantic first reported.

• "I'm not on the ballot but I'm on the ballot," Trump told one confidant who relayed the conversation to Axios.
• "Our job is to turn Trump voters into midterm voters," a Trump adviser told Axios.

The intrigue: The ads, however, are a de facto compromise between Trump and his political staff.

• "This is for the audience of one," Trump's confidant said, referring to the president. "If the boss wants it, he gets it."
• One Trump adviser said to expect more conventional ads: "We will be stripping the bark off of Democrats and supporting our candidates. ... It's not all Trump-focused ads."

What he's saying: On Friday, Trump acknowledged to reporters that "history has said that the sitting president" sees midterm losses, but he didn't complete the thought and then talked about how "nobody's ever had a first one and a half years like we have."

• "We have around $1 billion that I can spend," Trump said, referring to his super PAC and political nonprofit, which together have about $800 million.
• "I'm allocating, probably, about $400-$500 million" for the midterms, he said.
• "This is my money that I control now," he said. "I can spend it for what I want to spend it for. But I'm going to help a lot of the congressmen and senators that need help."

Yes, but: It's unclear how Trump could spend that much money in two months.

Between the lines: Trump's message in his tax cut ads is good, Republican strategists say, but their research increasingly shows voters blame him for the war in Iran that's raising gas prices.

• "Diesel's at an all-time high. Gas is about $4 a gallon. We can't message that away," said another Republican who runs campaigns for a few federal candidates.

• Trump advisers say he'll use the bully pulpit to make his case at the convention, but his speeches tend to lack cogency and focus, and their effectiveness is questionable.
• "If you look at the 20 competitive House races and the six Senate races we're really focused on, this is not as dire as the media wants you to think," a Trump adviser said. "This is winnable."

The backstory: Trump explained this week on the "Lt. Dan" podcast with Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick that he decided to hold the event in Dallas because "we have this big convention for the presidential election, but the midterms — people talk about it. It's very important, but there's no convention."

• "So ... I just came up with the idea, and we raised a lot of money."

Friction point: Trump's plummeting poll numbers aside, one problem is the convention's timing: It's competing with the NFL's season-opening games, which could draw far more attention.

• Even Republicans' interest is limited. Many candidates aren't going.
• "What's the point?" yet another Republican consultant involved in federal races told Axios. "It's like what they say about a tree falling in a forest: Does it make a noise if nobody's around? Well, is it a convention if no one's really watching?"

What's next: At a Rose Garden dinner Wednesday with dozens of House Republicans, Trump promised to campaign across the country in 35 races "to see if we can get everyone elected."

• If Trump wants to campaign for a candidate, it's going to be hard for them to say no, said one of the consultants involved in talks with MAGA Inc., the super PAC that backs Trump.
• "Say no to Trump, and he could punish you," the consultant said. "Say yes to him, and his presence might not help. This is the world we're in."