Midterm voters show up early — and in droves
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Americans are turning out in droves to vote early ahead of the midterms, with unusually strong participation among Black, Hispanic and unaffiliated voters in several states, according to election researchers.
Why it matters: Early voting patterns could signal heightened voter engagement, but don't necessarily predict overall turnout or which party will benefit.
By the numbers: More than 39 million Americans have cast early votes so far, according to a tracker run by the University of Florida's Election Lab.
- About 20 million voted early in person, and nearly 19 million have voted by mail as of Wednesday.
- In the 2022 midterms, about 46 million people voted during the early voting period.
Between the lines: University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald says overall turnout could surpass 2022 and potentially rival the 2018 "blue wave" — which saw the highest participation rate since 1914, according to Pew Research.
- Charles Stewart, director of MIT's Election Data and Science Lab, is more cautious than MacDonald. He believes turnout could rival 2022 but says voters may simply be shifting away from Election Day voting.
What they're saying: In states that provide voter data by race, early voting participation is particularly high among voters of color, McDonald tells Axios.
- "We can see high levels of engagement among African Americans above 2018 and 2022, and more importantly, Hispanics are through the roof. I mean, the numbers for Hispanics are eye-popping."
- Stronger early participation among Democrats and unaffiliated voters, compared with Republicans, could reflect a "referendum on Trump," McDonald suggested. "These independents, they're showing up in much greater numbers."
Case in point: In Texas, 5.5 million early votes have been cast through Oct. 28, per the University of Florida, with particularly strong turnout in counties with large Hispanic populations along the U.S.-Mexico border, McDonald says.
- Stewart suggests immigration policy, candidate appeal and campaign organizing could help explain engagement.
Zoom in: About 3.7 million Floridians have voted early as of Oct. 28 tallies. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats statewide by more than 1.5 million, but the GOP leads narrowly among early voters.
- North Carolinians have cast about 1.9 million votes as of Oct. 28. Early voting participation is up substantially among unaffiliated and Black voters.
- Stewart points to the state Supreme Court race involving a Black justice who previously worked as a voting rights attorney as one possible reason for high turnout. McDonald says the national redistricting push could also be motivating some voters, though there's no single explanation.
- In Michigan, 1.5 million people have voted early as of Oct. 28, though the state only recently expanded statewide access to early voting.
"The Fake News loves to write Republicans' obituaries before elections even happen and write political fan fiction masquerading as analysis," RNC Election Integrity Communications Director Ally Triolo told Axios in a statement.
- White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told Axios in an emailed statement that "President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress."
State of play: Stewart says higher early voting participation reflects not just voter enthusiasm but also campaigns' efforts to get people to the polls.
- "Enthusiasm, it's there for the campaigns to take advantage of, but it takes campaigns to take advantage of it," he said.
- McDonald sees Democrats shifting from mail voting toward early in-person voting, potentially because of Trump's repeated unfounded claims of widespread mail-ballot fraud and concerns about United States Postal Service disruptions.
Go deeper: Where midterms early voting is surging
