Chuck Schumer has a 2028 problem that's not even in New York
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Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is going to have his hands full next Congress, even without a threat to his leadership or a primary challenge from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).
Why it matters: Schumer (D-N.Y.) will have to grapple with the presidential ambitions of up to eight of his senators who may care more about winning the White House than following their leader.
- Roughly one in six Democratic senators eyeing the campaign trail would add a degree of difficulty to a job that rarely lacks challenges, as former President Obama acknowledged this week.
- "Being the head of the Democratic Party is a pain in the butt, because you've got people from every walk of life," Obama said of Schumer at a fundraiser Wednesday.
Flashback: This year's ICE funding fights gave Schumer a taste of how presidential ambitions can complicate governing.
- Potential 2028 contenders competed to take the toughest stance against ICE funding, even at the risk of a government shutdown.
Zoom in: The tension between individual ambition and party unity could surface early in Schumer's tenure if he becomes majority leader.
- Democrats are promising to lower costs and govern responsibly, while insisting they'll challenge and investigate the Trump administration at every turn.
- Schumer and President Trump have a long, complicated relationship — and each other's cell numbers.
Between the lines: Democrats could control majorities in both chambers, giving them immense power against Trump.
- But majority power is dependent on members being present and unified.
- Presidential contenders have incentives to spend time outside Washington and show how they differ from their fellow 2028 hopefuls in the Senate.
- They also may want to pick high-profile fights with the party establishment to prove their progressive bona fides.
But Schumer faced a similar challenge during the 2020 presidential cycle, when he was minority leader and seven sitting senators sought the Democratic nomination.
- Attendance was the biggest headache as candidates crisscrossed the country, complicating Senate scheduling.
- But Democrats didn't lose any major votes despite their presidential hopefuls being on the campaign trail.
Who we're watching:
- Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) has visited South Carolina, New Hampshire and Nevada (twice).
- Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.): South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa.
- Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.): South Carolina (twice), Nevada and Michigan.
- Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.): South Carolina.
- Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.): Iowa and Nevada.
- Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.): Iowa and New Hampshire (twice).
- Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.): Nevada (twice) and New Hampshire.
Honorable mention: Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) is focused on winning reelection, so he has no documented early-primary-state visits yet. That hasn't stopped presidential rumors from swirling.
Zoom out: First, Schumer needs to get to at least 51 seats in November, navigate a high-stakes lame-duck session, and then win a secret-ballot election to reclaim his title as majority leader.
- Some of his potential new members — especially if Democrats have a good night on Nov. 3 — aren't overly enthusiastic about supporting him.
- Candidates like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and James Talarico in Texas have not committed to voting for him.
The bottom line: Presidential candidates want to stand out. Senate majority leaders need their members to blend in — and fall in line.
