Trump's dilemma: Good data, bad story
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President Trump's economic data keeps getting stronger. His economic polling keeps getting worse by the day.
Why it matters: The midterms are less than a month away, and the administration is circling the drain on voters' No. 1 issue.
- It may be too late to change that, but it's also not clear anyone has much of a plan to try.
What they're saying: "If I say 'oh, people are wrong, the economy is great,' then it looks like I'm insensitive. And if I then go into why the economy is great, then it looks like I'm insensitive," National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union."
- "It's true that the polls, which have gotten the president's success wrong every time, have been saying that people are looking a little bit depressed about the economy. But if you look at their actions, the actions speak way louder than words," Hassett added, citing spending and default data.
The big picture: There is ample evidence the economy is, statistically speaking, relatively strong.
- 💰 Economic growth is solid and accelerating.
- 💪 The labor market is relatively stable.
- 💵 The K-shaped economy is ending as lower-end wages rise.
- 🛍️ Public and private data say consumers are spending more than ever.
Yes, but: People feel lousy.
- ☹️ The Conference Board's consumer confidence index is at a 12-year low.
- 🐘 Republican sentiment in particular is eroding at its fastest rate since the Great Financial Crisis, per University of Michigan data.
- 🪫 38% of voters told the latest CBS News poll their personal finances are fairly or very bad — a reflection, perhaps, of the fact that inflation has outpaced wage growth for months now. (When respondents were asked what they think about when they rate the economy, 91% said "prices.")
- 👎 73% disapprove of President Trump's handling of the economy, per the latest AP-NORC survey, the lowest rating he — or President Biden — ever had. (69% say Trump's handling of cost-of-living issues has been worse than they expected in his second term.)
Friction point: When voters go to the polls, they don't bring the latest release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis with them.
- They bring their feelings, and those are very bad.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told "The Axios Show" the administration wasn't going to repeat the Biden-era mistake of telling people how to feel.
- But Trump himself said last week that Republicans weren't doing a good enough job of messaging.
The intrigue: So far, Trump's strategy seems to be the rich-uncle theory, which doesn't appear to be paying off with voters.
- He continues to promise $5,000 checks for every adult citizen if Republicans win the midterms — a $1.3 trillion bombshell that most people don't believe he'll ever pay.
- On Saturday, he promised seniors $2 billion in Medicare rebates, a big number that works out to about two weeks' worth of premium payments.
Between the lines: Some of the tension comes from the nature of the economic boom, an AI-fueled bonanza that nonetheless appears to be leaving many ordinary Americans behind.
- It's not a K-shaped economy, says Krishna Guha, head of economics at Evercore ISI, but a "gator economy" — as in an alligator's mouth, where the bottom stays flat and the top is pointing to the sky poised to chomp.
The bottom line: There's good reason to think the economy's not that bad.
- There's even better reason to think voters don't care.
Emily Peck contributed reporting.
