House GOP whip: Limit spending to districts with "biggest return"
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House Majority Whip Tom Emmer speaks at Republican's midterm convention in Dallas on Sept. 9. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) is scaling back expectations and zeroing in on a narrowed battlefield as Republicans' prospects of keeping their majority look increasingly bleak.
Why it matters: Emmer, a former National Republican Congressional Committee chair who helped the GOP unexpectedly gain seats in 2020, argues his party can still defy historical headwinds in November.
- But with less than a month to go, Emmer acknowledges that some tough decisions are coming about where Republicans spend their money, including walking away from races they don't think they can salvage.
- "It really is a business, and you're looking at a balance sheet, and you're putting your money where you're gonna get your biggest return," he told Axios aboard a plane between campaign stops.
- Axios joined Emmer, who plans to visit 56 districts between September and Election Day, as he traveled from Charlotte to Richmond last week for stops with Reps. Mark Harris (R-N.C.) and Rob Wittman (R-Va.).
Driving the news: It's a lesson Emmer says Republicans learned the hard way in 2022, when expectations of a "red wave" led the party to spread its resources too broadly.
- "We expanded the map when we should have kept it narrow," Emmer told donors in Charlotte. "We should have been conservative about what we were going after."
- This cycle, Emmer said Republicans have to identify "where you're not gonna be able to salvage this, and you've got to pick up something over there."
Yes, but: That strategy is being tested by a difficult national environment for Republicans, with an unpopular president and voters focused on the cost of living and the war in Iran, which is driving up gas prices.
Between the lines: Asked about embattled Rep. Max Miller's (R-Ohio) increasingly difficult race, Emmer immediately pointed up the ticket to the Senate and gubernatorial races, where Democrats are faring better than expected.
- "The problem is, when you got these statewide candidates that are not creating momentum, that's tough," he said.
- Emmer also pointed to the North Carolina Senate race, where Democrat Roy Cooper has opened up a lead in polls, as having a "large impact" on the 1st and 11th district races there.
- Miller has a path to victory, Emmer said, "but it's narrow." Still, he defended the NRCC's decision to spend money backing Miller.
Zoom in: Emmer's instinct is to let members run the race that fits their district — within limits.
- He called Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar's (R-Fla.) campaign ad breaking with Trump on immigration a "huge mistake," adding, "I'm not sure why now was the time for that message" (although he later walked back those comments, saying Salazar "knows her district").
- Salazar posited in the ad that Trump's immigration enforcement efforts have "gone too far" and that Hispanic voters who helped elect him in 2024 "feel betrayed."
