Trans rights fight injects chaos into Dems' midterm efforts

• "People feel you need to respond in some way to some of these attacks because people didn't do it two years ago," Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.), a co-chair of the Congressional LGBTQ+ Equality Caucus, told Axios.
• "But you also need to realize what we're winning on right now," Pocan added, saying Democratic candidates need to strike "a balance."
• "Silence is deadly, and I think we played that out in 2024," said Lanae Erickson, a senior vice president at the centrist think tank Third Way, citing polling that found most voters believed Democrats "thought there should be no rules in sports, no rules around health care."

Driving the news: Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) set off a firestorm in her district and on Capitol Hill in September by stating in a direct-to-camera ad that she "voted with Republicans to keep transgender ideology out of our schools."

• "Parents know what's best for their kids, and boys should not play in girls' sports," Kaptur said in the spot — a response to an ad from Republican Derek Merrin that said she "voted to let biological men compete against girls in their sports."

• Multiple county parties condemned the ad — particularly the reference to transgender girls as "boys" — and urged Kaptur to take it down.
• One LGBTQ+ group, the Lucas County Stonewall Democrats, said in a statement there is "no difference" between Kaptur and Merrin because they are "both united against the LBTQIA+ community."

What they're saying: "The ads were deeply offensive to the Equality Caucus and the broader LGBTQ community that we represent," said Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.), who co-chairs the caucus' political arm, Equality PAC.

• He told Axios: "The Equality Caucus is not going to stand by passively and allow anyone to scapegoat the trans community. It is a red line for us."
• Equality PAC "is absolutely not supporting her campaign at this time," the group said in a separate statement to Axios, calling Kaptur's language "unacceptable."

What we're hearing: Kaptur's colleagues also privately communicated their disgust with the ad to her office, multiple House Democrats familiar with the matter told Axios.

• The lawmakers predicted there will be in-person conversations with Kaptur when the House returns in November, especially if she wins her election.
• "Marcy set the record straight for NW Ohio voters on where she stands: giving parents more say in the classroom and ensuring parents, coaches, and local sports associations — not politicians in Washington — set the rules in their communities to ensure girls' sports stay fair," said Kaptur campaign spokesperson Kylie Blitzer.
• "She is focused on lowering costs and standing up to special interests using their big money and outsized influence to tilt the playing field in their favor."

Zoom out: It's not just Kaptur. Democratic House candidates Blake Gendebien of New York and Sarah Trone Garriott of Iowa, and Senate candidate Mary Peltola of Alaska, have put out ads featuring similar rhetoric.

• Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) released an ad last week in which he said there are "real concerns about fairness and safety" and that "states should decide what's right for protecting women and girls."
• That ad, like Kaptur's, raised eyebrows privately among LGBTQ+ House Democrats, though none have called him out publicly for it.

The other side: Centrist groups and lawmakers say the party has to be realistic about districts like Kaptur's, which President Trump carried by 11 percentage points in 2024.

• "Marcy Kaptur and Don Davis are doing the most important work in Democratic politics: winning Trump districts," said Liam Kerr, cofounder of centrist group Welcome PAC.
• Kerr argued attacks from LGBTQ+ groups will only help swing-district Democrats: "Taking the 20% side of an 80/20 issue may be bad politics, but elevating the big winners repudiating you is even worse advocacy."

Between the lines: "Our latest [research] showed that anti-trans attacks take about 8 points off of the Democratic vote if you just let it sit out there," Erickson, the Third Way official, told Axios.

• "But there are ways to respond that get you back up 10 to 12 to 14 points," she continued. "There are a bunch of different ways to say it ... just being clear that there need to be rules. Not laws, but rules."
• "When it comes to health care, that parents, not politicians, should be in charge of decisions about their kids' health care."

The bottom line: Centrists and LGBTQ+ Democrats alike say a careful balance can and should be struck.

• Several lawmakers pointed to Senate hopefuls James Talarico and Sherrod Brown as examples for deftly maneuvering on this issue.
• Erickson said "calling transgender girls 'boys' ... is not respectful" and that candidates "don't have to do it. There's better ways to talk about this."