Dems' potential 2028 contenders cautious on trans rights

• GOP candidates have been particularly aggressive with ads objecting to transgender girls participating in high school girls' sports.

Zoom in: Last week, California Gov. Gavin Newsom stumbled when conservative influencer Ben Shapiro pressed him on the topic on Newsom's podcast.

• "The question that you're not wanting to answer ... is whether boys can become girls," Shapiro said.
• "Yeah, I just, well, I think, uh, for the grace of God," Newsom replied.
• The uncomfortable moment for Newsom — a longtime advocate for LGBTQ rights — came 10 months after he was criticized by LGBTQ advocates for saying it was "unfair" for transgender girls and women to compete in female sports.

That Newsom looked unprepared for a Republican "gotcha" question last week made some Democrats wince.

• "You need a clear answer, whatever it is," Liam Kerr, co-founder of the centrist Welcome PAC, told Axios.

Driving the news: Axios quizzed nearly 20 Democrats viewed as possible 2028 contenders. Most didn't want to talk about trans rights.

• We chose questions based on those that Democratic candidates up and down ballots have encountered in interviews and ads for years.
• We asked: Should transgender girls be able to participate in girls' sports? Do you believe transgender youths under age 18 should be able to be placed on puberty blockers and hormones? And what is your response to the question: "Can a man become a woman?"
• Former Vice President Harris, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy, California Rep. Ro Khanna and Newsom were among those declining to comment or not responding.

What they're saying: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg were the only three potential contenders who shared answers.

• A spokesperson for Gov. Shapiro pointed us to his previous remarks to The Atlantic, in which he said local scholastic sports officials, not politicians, should make decisions about transgender athletes.
• But the governor said his personal view is different, and that trans youths don't "deserve an unfair advantage on the playing field." His spokesperson also noted Shapiro's recent legal action against the Trump administration over its efforts to stop gender-transition care for children.

Emanuel said his positions hadn't changed since he was interviewed recently by conservative commentator Megyn Kelly, who asked whether "boys should be able to play in girls' sports" and "can a man become a woman?"

• Emanuel said "no" to both. He also said parents should make decisions about whether transgender minors are able to access hormones.

A Buttigieg spokesperson referred us to an NPR interview in which he was asked to respond to the conversation between Emanuel and Kelly.

• Buttigieg called for "compassion" and questioned "past orthodoxies in my party ... around sports." He said decisions about trans athletes should be made by sports leagues. His spokesperson didn't address the other questions.

Zoom out: Some Democratic strategists and officials argue they've learned to deal with the issue, pointing to Republicans' anti-trans ads that appeared to fall flat in last year's Virginia gubernatorial election.

• They say trans rights aren't top of mind for most voters and that Harris was especially vulnerable to GOP attacks in 2024 because she'd said on video that she backed gender-transition surgery for prisoners. That clip was the focus of Trump's ad.
• Harris didn't respond to Trump's attack with her own ad in 2024.
• But last year Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia answered similar attacks that claimed she supported "men in girls' sports, bathrooms, and locker rooms." A Spanberger ad said such claims were "lies" and that "we need to get politics out of our schools and trust parents and local communities."

The pro-LGBTQ Human Rights Campaign just released a "messaging playbook" for candidates facing anti-trans criticism. It praises Spanberger's approach.

• The group encourages contenders in the 2026 midterm elections to "neutralize the attacks by going on offense."

The big picture: Most Americans support anti-discrimination protections for transgender people, according to a Pew Research Center survey last year. But the poll found they also favor GOP-backed policies barring gender transitions for minors and compelling trans athletes to play on teams that match their sex assigned at birth.

• Democrats broadly support trans rights and gender-affirming care. But many officials and strategists feel caught between a sympathetic, vulnerable community and a broader electorate that has grown more conservative on the issue.

When Newsom and other Democrats expressed concerns about trans athletes last year, progressives such as Ocasio-Cortez fired back.

• "If you're an LGBT kid or a family," she said, "we can't throw you under the bus in order to win an election."