GOP election outlook goes from bad to "craptastic"

• Most worrisome for the GOP, there's virtually no chance the war ends, inflation cools, interest rates fall, consumer confidence rises, and economic optimism surges before the Nov. 3 election.
• That's why Republicans fear the undertow imperils so many candidates once deemed safe.

The big picture: Predicting election outcomes is a risky business, but it may be time to expand the imagination of how ugly it could get for Republicans five weeks from now.

Start with mood music:

• This week, Trump's disapproval rating hit 60.4%, the worst mark of his two terms in office, including the aftermath of the Jan. 6 riots.
• Gas prices are over $4 a gallon, diesel has hit $6.50 and no relief is in sight.
• Seven months in, the U.S. is locked in a standoff with Iran with no apparent exit strategy.

• Grocery prices are still rising year over year.
• Mortgage rates hit 7%.
• And the cost of borrowing across the economy continues to climb.

Enter the elections: The problems for the GOP are everywhere. In the battle for the Senate, once ruby-red Texas looks more in play than ever, and Florida isn't far behind. Nor is Alaska. North Carolina and Georgia look lost. Maine is problematic.

• The Senate GOP campaign arm is begging donors for another $8.9 million to defend Senate seats in three states that Trump won by double digits two years ago — Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
• "We're having problems just getting Republican voters to respond to polls," said one national Republican pollster. "At what point do we think these guys aren't showing up at the actual polls on Election Day?"

Only in Michigan do Republicans see glimmers of hope to pick up a Senate seat because Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed is seen by some as so radical that he has "scared the shit out of our people to want to vote," the GOP pollster said. "But even then, in this environment, who knows?"

• What once looked like a long shot for Democrats — taking control of the Senate by flipping four Republican-held seats on a map favoring the GOP — looks increasingly plausible.

On the House side, the Cook Political Report moved 15 House races toward Democrats on Friday.

• Democrats need to net just three seats to win control of the chamber.
• Republicans are now playing defense deep in red America. GOP-aligned groups are spending money in more than a half-dozen districts that Trump won by at least 15 points in 2024.
• House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) is keeping expectations low on what a good Election Night will look like. He told Axios that Republicans might be able to get 225 House seats. It takes 218 to have a majority.

What they're saying: "While many have long predicted that Democrats will enjoy a 'blue wave' election, I think of it more as a 'red undertow,' which will pull many Republicans under and significantly trim the margins for many others, said the Cook Report's founder and top elections handicapper Charlie Cook.

• That's an implied reminder that Democrats' favorability ratings aren't good; they're just better than Republicans'.
• "Over the last 90 days," Cook added, "President Trump's political standing has transitioned from very unpopular to toxic and now to radioactive."
• Said another consultant involved with races across the country: "Things were bad. But they started to go worse recently and if it keeps on this track, it's gonna be real bad."

The environment is starting to rival the second midterm election of President George W. Bush's tenure in 2006, the consultant said, amid the Iraq war and the botched response to Hurricane Katrina. Republicans lost control of both chambers after losing 30 House seats and six Senate seats.

• "The numbers are somewhere between shitabulous and craptastic," a top Republican advising several federal races across the country told Axios. "It looks worse than 2018 now. Trump is heading to Bush 2006 levels."

State of play: More and more lately, Republican incumbents are running for cover from Trump.

• In Iowa, two House Republicans have switched their positions to support a war powers resolution on Iran.
• Sen. Chuck Grassley, who rode the 1980 Republican wave to the Senate, and Rep. Ashley Hinson, who's running for Iowa's other Senate seat, are demanding restrictions on diesel exports.

The other side: One Trump adviser downplayed the GOP tremors, pointing to the Republicans' massive cash advantage.

• "If we execute and our people show up, it's a different ballgame," the adviser said. "There's more than a month to go."
• "Look, things aren't peachy," the adviser acknowledged. "But it's a presidential midterm. Things are hairy. Things always get hairy for any White House at this time."