Scoop: "Delusional" Senate forecast rattles Sea Island retreat
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A pollster for Senate Republicans was met with disbelief on Saturday after telling GOP donors and operatives that they could grow their majority in November's midterm elections, sources tell Axios.
Why it matters: "Delusional," one attendee at the National Republican Senatorial Committee's Sea Island retreat in Georgia told Axios after the presentation by the pollster, Erik Iverson. "The mood is not good," said another.
- "I think most attendees down here are politically astute and realistic about the headwinds Republicans face," said a third.
- A fourth attendee described conversations at the event as Republicans sarcastically telling each other "we're winning" and "everything's good."
- The Sea Island fall retreat is a major donor event for the NRSC each cycle, attracting big-dollar donors, senators and their senior staff.
The details: Iverson, a former Montana Republican Party chair, suggested that Republicans could net gain one seat in the Senate after the midterms, but did not provide a state-by-state explanation for how they would do so, sources said.
- Another source in the room said Iverson's comments were in the context of a question about the 2022 midterms, when Senate Democrats picked up a seat despite former President Biden's poor polling numbers.
- Some in the room laughed when a member of the audience asked if it meant Republicans would also pick up a seat, the source said.
What he's saying: "I told attendees that I think all incumbent Republican Senators will hold their seats because we have good candidates who are well funded," Iverson told Axios.
- "And I pointed out that in 2022 President Biden's image was double digits under water in every single swing Senate seat yet Democrats still gained a seat. The message was for folks to keep their heads up," he added.
- Iverson also shared winning political messages on gas prices and data centers, according to slides obtained by Axios.
- It included that 60% of swing voters would consider supporting new data centers in their state if they met community requirements such as paying all their energy costs and not negatively affecting local water supplies.
Between the lines: Attendees questioned why they were not given a full update on each race.
- The surprisingly competitive Texas race was not discussed at all, some sources noted.
Zoom in: Other speakers on Saturday included NRSC Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W. Va.), Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and NRSC political director Brendan Jaspers.
- There was also a panel with Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) and Senate candidates Julia Letlow (Louisiana), Kevin Hern (Oklahoma), Andy Barr (Kentucky) and Harriet Hageman (Wyoming).
The big picture: Top Senate Republicans openly acknowledge they face a tough map in November.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told Axios on Wednesday that it's a "tough environment."
- The NRSC itself is asking donors for $9 million to help in three states — Alaska, Iowa and Ohio — where President Trump won by double digits in 2024, as Axios scooped on Thursday.
