Exclusive: Thune plans another leader bid as Senate GOP fights to survive

• "I do see the Senate as a firewall in a lot of ways," Thune told Axios.
• "We will spend probably the next two years — if the House flips — trying to do impeachment or investigations, etc.," he said. Otherwise, the chamber will focus on judicial and executive nominations.

Zoom out: Thune has three ways to help in the "tough environment" for Republicans in 2026.

🪧 1. Run against Washington: Thune said he understands if GOP candidates need to rhetorically distance themselves from Congress or even fellow Republicans in D.C., including himself.

• And when it comes to distancing from President Trump: "In some places the president's coming in, some places he isn't." Candidates can draw their own conclusions, Thune said.
• Republican candidates are increasingly concluding that to win their races, they need to break with Trump on some issues.

🗳️ 2. Vote for your state: Thune's policy with senators is "don't surprise us and when you can, stay with the team," but "do what's in the best interest of you and your state."

• That could lead to a rebuke of Trump when Democrats force another vote on an Iran war powers resolution, expected before the Senate breaks for October.
• People's views have "evolved and changed" as the war has dragged on, he said. Many senators are "responding to what they're hearing back home."

"That's a really hard vote," Thune acknowledged. "Any time you are committing your country to putting young men and women in harm's way — those are the hardest votes you'll make."

• He hopes Republicans will stick together to win the vote.

What to watch: Thune wants to give Republicans more votes before the break to champion back home.

• He sees an opportunity with permitting reform legislation, which is being negotiated behind the scenes. Thune said it's possible he sets up a procedural vote on it after the final vote on the Protect College Sports bill.
• Thune is also floating a vote on the House-passed legislation targeting data center energy costs if the Senate remains in town next week.

💰 3. Spend cash like crazy: The Thune-linked Senate Leadership Fund is set to spend nearly $280 million in video advertising this year — more than any other group, according to AdImpact.

• Texas PAC, which is affiliated with SLF, is on track to spend another $112 million.
• "Texas is expensive," Thune said, but "we're doing everything we can to help. We can't afford to lose Texas."

The bottom line: "That's ultimately up to the conference," Thune emphasized when asked if he'd run again if the GOP lost the majority, but "that's the plan."

• "The elections are going to be really important — I think – in how we view what happens next."
• Thune said you can't "rule anything in or out" when asked if he could face a challenger for the position.
• "But I think we worked really hard to create an environment here that is conducive to individual senators being able to achieve their objectives," he said. "I think, in this job, you have to be a good listener."