Football drives GOP's TV ad blitz for the midterms

• After winning 55% of the male vote in 2024, Trump has seen his standing with men deteriorate. A new Fox News poll puts his approval among them at 42%, down 9 points from a year ago.
• The signs of slippage are particularly clear among young men. A spring Harvard Youth Poll found men ages 18–29 favored a Democratic congressional candidate by 8 points, after reporting an even split between Trump and Harris in 2024.

By the numbers: Part of Republicans' plan to try to change the midterm vibe is to capitalize on their financial advantage by dominating the football airwaves.

• They ran 5,546 TV spots during the NFL and college games and pre-and-postgame programming where they advertised most heavily last weekend, compared with 471 for Democrats — nearly 12 times as many, according to ad-tracking data obtained by Axios.
• Republicans' biggest presence was during the blockbuster Texas-Ohio State matchup, which featured teams from two states with competitive Senate races.
• The pro-GOP Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) super PAC spent $2 million, airing ads in every quarter before 14 million viewers on ABC.
• The national coverage meant viewers nationwide saw Senate ads that were targeted to Texas or Ohio.

Zoom in: Nowhere is the GOP's football strategy more apparent than in Michigan, where the Senate race could determine control of that chamber.

• SLF struck a deal with a vendor that manages sports programming in Michigan bars, putting its ads on more than 1,000 TVs at 150 bars across the state.
• Republicans launched the effort after Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed made critical remarks about football, which became the focus of the ads.
• A super PAC supporting Republican Mike Rogers premiered its latest ad attacking El-Sayed during Thursday night's Lions-Bills game and will air it again during Saturday's Michigan State-Notre Dame game on NBC.

Zoom out: The push extends beyond advertising.

• Turning Point USA, the conservative group once led by Charlie Kirk, launched "Grand American Tailgate," a get-out-the-vote tour of college campuses on football Saturdays. This weekend it heads to Oxford, Miss., ahead of the Ole Miss-LSU game.
• Minnesota Senate candidate Michelle Tafoya is spotlighting her career as an NFL sideline reporter, while Arizona House candidate and former NFL kicker Jay Feely highlighted his football career during his speech at the GOP's midterm convention.
• Rogers campaigned at last weekend's Michigan-Oklahoma game in Ann Arbor and gave an interview outside Michigan Stadium — the "Big House" — noting that his dad had been a high school coach.

The White House is joining in with football-themed social posts, including one showing Trump dancing to Fox's NFL theme.

Flashback: In 2024, Republicans spent millions on ads during football games attacking Kamala Harris over transgender issues, including transgender women participating in women's sports.

• Trump advisers credited the ads with helping him make inroads with young men. The presidential margin among men under 50 swung 11 points toward Trump between 2020 and 2024, according to Pew Research.
• Republicans are reviving the strategy. The pro-GOP Congressional Leadership Fund ran two ads during last weekend's Iowa-Iowa State game, including one attacking a Democratic candidate on transgender issues.
• Texas Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, who faces Democrat James Talarico in November, is airing ads on the same issue during NFL games.

Yes, but: Democrats aren't abandoning football. Talarico will advertise during Sunday's Dallas Cowboys-Washington Commanders NFL game, for which a 30-second candidate spot costs $200,000, according to the ad buying company Medium Buying.

What they're saying: Republicans say football's enormous reach is worth the price.

• "Smart campaigns and organizations recognize that live sports remain one of the last few remaining shared cultural events where millions of Americans watch live," SLF Political Director Domenic Re told Axios.