Trump's postings may still move the needle

President Trump's claim that Ukraine agreed to halt strikes on Russian energy targets coincided with a pullback in oil prices and Treasury yields Monday.

Why it matters: Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia have crippled large swaths of the country's refining capacity, creating embarrassing shortages and prompting Russian officials to curtail exports to shore up domestic supplies.

• Russia has long been one of the world's largest exporters of diesel, and its export ban contributed to a worldwide ripple of diesel fuel shortages and price spikes, including in the U.S., where the national average price for diesel jumped to $6 per gallon in recent days.

What they're saying: "Ukraine has agreed not to hit Russian Energy targets. Russia has agreed to do, likewise! The World's Diesel price rise is mostly caused by the Russia/Ukraine War, not Iran. President DJT," Trump posted.

The other side: The Ukrainians sounded somewhat skeptical, with President Volodymyr Zelensky stating that "Ukraine is not convinced that Russia is willing to abide by any agreement."

• "If our partners are ready to ensure that Russia genuinely refrains from striking our electricity system, other energy facilities, critical infrastructure, and food supply routes, then, of course, we are ready to ensure a corresponding halt to our strikes."

The bottom line: In any case, diesel prices, crude oil and Treasury bond yields declined after Trump's message.

Zoom out: The market moves were a potent reminder that Trump's online pronouncements can still matter for investors.

• That's at the heart of the Trump Media & Technology Group's decision to launch its Truth API data feed product this summer.
• The product offers access — the cost is between $60,000 and $100,000 per month — to a data feed of "published and publicly available posts fractionally faster," according to Trump Media CEO Kevin McGurn, including those of the president and other top accounts on Truth Social.
• Trump owns roughly 41% of the outstanding shares in Trump Media.

Friction point: The product is the focus of a lawsuit filed last month by the Freedom of the Press Foundation and nonprofit news organization The Intercept, which accuses the president and the administration of violating the First Amendment and profiting from selling government information.

• "This scheme is profoundly corrupt. The President stands to gain financially by giving 'market-moving' government information to those who are willing and able to pay his personal company," the plaintiffs wrote in their complaint.
• A Trump Media ​spokesperson said: "Information from President Trump is disseminated by countless platforms and news outlets, many of which offer subscription APIs. One of those channels is Truth Social, which was founded as an uncancellable haven for free speech after the President was deplatformed. Now, left-wing activists are trying to wrongfully weaponize the courts to censor him again and harm our shareholders."
• The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Disclosure: In 2023, TMTG sued 20 media organizations, including Axios, for defamation. Litigation is ongoing.