Russia roils global market for diesel

By the numbers: The ripple effects can now be seen in the U.S. After Russia banned exports of the fuel last week, U.S. diesel prices edged above $5 a gallon Thursday.

• The price rise reflects a global scramble for supplies of a fuel crucial to industries such as agriculture, construction and ground transportation.

Between the lines: Russia's ban on exports is what poker players might call "a tell," hinting at the intensity of the current turmoil in the Russian economy.

• Such tea leaf reading is required, as Moscow has tried to obscure the war's impact on its economy since it launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
• Russia has stopped publicly reporting much of its economic data. Some Western intelligence services think the numbers it does report are manipulated to present a healthier picture to the outside world.
• But the current crisis is tough to keep under wraps.

Catch up quick: In a report last week, the International Energy Agency said:

• "Since August 2025, at least 100 strikes against Russian refineries have been recorded, with the pace of attacks increasing in recent months. In June alone, at least 10 strikes on refineries were reported."
• "Almost every large refinery in the western part of Russia has been hit by drones. ... Attacks continued through June and into July, with many refineries being hit multiple times."

What they're saying: "In some regions, drivers have queued for days, fuel sales have been rationed, and stations—including those operated by major retailers—have temporarily run dry. Retail prices have risen sharply, with some independent stations reportedly charging 50% or more above normal levels," Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan, wrote in a note last week.

• "The disruption has now spread well beyond private motorists. Agriculture, public transport, utilities, logistics and small businesses are increasingly affected, marking a shift from consumer inconvenience to broader operational disruption across the economy," she added.

• Reuters reports that Russia plans to import more gasoline from India because of the widespread outages at its own refineries.
• The government is considering rationing fuel to prioritize food delivery to grocery stores. And rising fuel costs could be a challenge for the coming Russian harvest, analysts say.

The big picture: Meanwhile, Russia's traditional diesel customers — which include large emerging markets like Brazil — are scrambling to secure supplies of their own, with many turning to the U.S.

• That foreign buying is helping to push up prices for Americans.

What we're watching: Whether Ukraine can sustain its drone campaign despite the unexpected dismissal of its innovative 35-year-old defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, who is seen by some as an architect of the nation's use of drones.