Why House Republicans are pulling money from a key swing seat
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Rep. Josh Riley attends a congressional freshman event at the U.S. Capitol on Nov. 15, 2024. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
House Republicans are effectively abandoning what was supposed to be a key battleground district in New York over concerns that their candidate, state Sen. Peter Oberacker, is too flawed to seriously compete, sources tell Axios.
Why it matters: Expect to see more of this cold calculus as the general election heats up, with both parties determining where their money will actually make enough of a difference to be worth spending.
- In this case, the GOP has determined that New York's 19th district, a perennial battleground seat that has routinely changed hands between Democrats and Republicans over the last several election cycles, doesn't warrant the investment.
- The seat, currently held by freshman Rep. Josh Riley (D-N.Y.), was one of the National Republican Congressional Committee's stated targets as recently as last month.
Driving the news: Congressional Leadership Fund, House Republicans' main super PAC, removed all its money in the district last week, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.
- The group had $4.8 million in television ad reservations supporting Oberacker, all of which were pulled on Friday.
- The NRCC also removed Oberacker from its "MAGA Majority" list, according to Punchbowl News.
- The NRCC and CLF did not provide comments on the record for this story.
Between the lines: Oberacker is seen by Republicans on Capitol Hill as too flawed a candidate to seriously challenge Riley, according to multiple GOP sources familiar with the matter.
- One major issue that sources cited is the controversy around a post Oberacker made on Facebook in 2015 praising his grandfather's military service in Nazi Germany.
- Another is his campaign's cash burn rate: He had raised around $1.2 million as of the end of June but spent nearly $850,000 of it, including $350,000 on consultants, according to campaign finance filings.
- The Oberacker campaign's spending, one source told Axios, has been a source of behind-the-scenes tension with national Republicans.
What we're hearing: "Spending a few million in Upstate New York against Riley — who, ... it's not like he's got a lot of enemies, and he raises money — it's just a hard environment, hard to argue," a Republican source told Axios.
- Oberacker's "internals have him down ... and then there's the Nazi thing, which is not a killer, but when you add them all up it's like, 'eh,'" the source said.
- A House Republican told Axios that "those who know New York know the Lawler, Suozzi, and Gillen races were the only ones ever actually considered competitive," referring to swing-district Reps. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) and Laura Gillen (D-N.Y.).
- The Oberacker campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
