Far-right win in state election tests Germany's political firewall

The latest: AfD more than doubled its 20.8% share in 2021, hitting its highest vote share ever in a state election and finishing ahead of the center-right CDU at 17%.

• BSW, the party that hasn't ruled out working with the AfD, barely cleared the 5% threshold parties need for parliamentary representation.
• Together, AfD and BSW would hold 43 seats, one more than a majority.
• BSW, a populist party, combines far-left economics with far-right migration policies and calls for closer ties to Russia.

Yes, but: The arithmetic may not be enough.

• BSW co-chair Amira Mohamed Ali said Sunday the party would neither vote for AfD's Ulrich Siegmund nor CDU Premier Sven Schulze. Instead, she wants a nonpartisan premier who would govern with BSW and AfD.
• This would require support from AfD, but Siegmund rejected the idea.
• Siegmund suggested Sunday he may persuade some lawmakers to switch parties to help him secure a majority.

Catch up quick: AfD has won the most votes once before, in 2024, but it has never governed.

• In 2024, it finished first in Thuringia, marking the first far-right victory since World War II, but other parties kept it out of government. Sunday's result is AfD's strongest.

Flashback: Trump allies' support for the far-right party became a transatlantic flashpoint during Germany's 2025 federal election.

• Elon Musk boosted the AfD on X, saying "only the AfD can save Germany," and he appeared by video at an AfD campaign rally.
• Vice President JD Vance met with AfD's leader just before that election and told the Munich Security Conference there was "no room for firewalls," a reference to mainstream parties' stance against governing with the AfD.

Between the lines: Saxony-Anhalt's intelligence service has classified the state AfD as a right-wing extremist organization.

• Siegmund, AfD's 35-year-old candidate for Saxony-Anhalt's premier, has drawn scrutiny over his treatment of Germany's Nazi past.
• At AfD events, an emcee has shouted "Sieg!" and supporters answered "Mund!" — splitting his surname into a call-and-response that the head of Germany's Central Council of Jews says evokes Nazi chants.

• Siegmund declined to call the Holocaust humanity's worst crime, saying he would not presume to rank all crimes.

The big picture: Europe's far right is moving in sharply different directions.

• Hungary's Viktor Orbán lost power after 16 years this spring, yet Italy's Giorgia Meloni leads the country's longest-serving uninterrupted postwar government.
• In France, far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen is the early front-runner for the 2027 presidential election.

Context: Germany's postwar system was built in the shadow of the Nazis' destruction of the democratic Weimar Republic.

• The 1949 Basic Law embraces the concept of a "militant democracy" to defend against movements that seek to abolish the constitutional order.

What's inside: The AfD laid out a program for how it would use state power:

• Rewrite the mandate of the state intelligence service that investigated the party.
• Allow homeschooling, give the government greater control over which textbooks schools can use and end its public broadcasting agreement with neighboring states.
• Create a deportation task force.
• Require state-funded organizations to demonstrate a "patriotic basic attitude."

What we're watching: German officials, including the defense minister, have floated limiting intelligence sharing over concerns about AfD's ties to Russia.