With MAGA's help, Europe's far-right marches into the mainstream
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Photo illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios. Photos: NurPhoto, Dan Kitwood, Jean-Pierre Bouchard, Carsten Koall, Martin Pope via Getty Images
Vice President J.D. Vance, Elon Musk and other MAGA voices horrified Europe's leaders by embracing Germany's AfD and other far-right parties early in the Trump administration.
- Six months later, those parties are smashing their establishment rivals in poll after poll.
Why it matters: The populist wave that formed in the wake of the 2015 migrant crisis has not crested. It's surging — and spreading — across Europe, cheered on by a U.S. government eager to see MAGA go global.
Driving the news: For the first time in modern history, far-right parties are leading opinion polls in Europe's four largest economies.
- In Germany, a new poll last week found the AfD — dogged by Nazi scandals and surveilled by German intelligence for suspected extremism — is narrowly the most popular party in the country.
- In the U.K., Nigel Farage's Reform Party has a double-digit lead over both the ruling Labour Party and the Conservatives, which have dominated British politics for a century.
- In France, the far-right National Rally is comfortably polling first, even with its leader Marine Le Pen banned from running for president in 2027 for embezzling EU funds.
- In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni — leader of the country's first far-right government since World War II — has defied political gravity by remaining relatively popular three years after sweeping to power, though she has governed more pragmatically than many expected.
Reality check: None of these countries have elections anytime soon, meaning the polls — for now — reflect momentum rather than an imminent transfer of power.
- In Germany and much of Europe, mainstream parties have long maintained a so-called cordon sanitaire — refusing to form coalitions or share power with the far-right.
- That firewall has held in recent years, but its durability is being tested by the growing strength of populist forces.
The big picture: The far right's rise is the product of cultural, economic and geopolitical pressures that have been building for more than a decade.
- Migration: Millions of migrants from the Middle East and North Africa entered Europe in the years following the 2015 refugee crisis. Even moderate parties have tightened their immigration policies in recent years, but debates over national sovereignty, identity and security have only intensified.
- Economic anxiety: Stubbornly high prices, slowing growth and post-pandemic inequality have fueled resentment toward ruling parties. The war in Ukraine and President Trump's tariffs have added to economic pressure, especially in export-heavy economies like Germany.
- Trust in institutions: Scandals, corruption probes and perceptions of an out-of-touch elite have weakened confidence in mainstream parties and EU institutions, even as far-right outfits have faced numerous scandals of their own.
What they're saying: "For the EU right now, it's all about the migrant crisis," MAGA podcaster Jack Posobiec, who spoke at inaugural CPAC events in Hungary and Poland, told Axios.
- "Expectations have changed drastically. People used to want controlled net positive immigration. They were ignored. So now they want mass deportations," said Raheem Kassam, a former Farage adviser and current editor of The National Pulse.
Between the lines: Trump officials have openly campaigned for Europe's far right, seeking to grow the ranks of allies like Meloni, Hungary's Viktor Orbán and Poland's new president, Karol Nawrocki.
- Vance met with the leader of the AfD ahead of Germany's election, Musk explicitly endorsed the party, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio condemned German intelligence for labeling it an "extremist" organization.
- Vance, who also met with Farage in the U.K. this week, shocked the European establishment when he accused its leaders in February of "running in fear" of their own voters.
- "Democracy rests on the sacred principle that the voice of the people matters," Vance declared in his first foreign policy speech as VP at the Munich Security Conference. "There is no room for firewalls."
Tal Axelrod contributed reporting.
