Behind the Curtain: Trump's quicksand
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Read the polls, watch economic indicators and talk to President Trump's inner circle in private, and the verdict on his second term seems clear:
- Even some longtime insiders fear he's trapped by a war he shouldn't have waged, tariffs he shouldn't have levied, monuments he shouldn't be obsessed with.
Why it matters: These three topics chew up much of Trump's time and attention. All three are widely unpopular in polls.
- And it's almost impossible to see the public suddenly warming to war, tariffs or more statues.
By the numbers: Trump's approval cratered to an all-time low of 32% in a Quinnipiac poll last week. Even more damning: 68% of voters said he isn't focused enough on the problems most Americans face.
- Trump has squandered the GOP's most durable political advantage: A Reuters/Ipsos poll this week (and a Pew poll last month) found voters split on which party is better for the economy — after Republicans had led on the issue for nine years, back to Trump's first term. Republicans still back Trump on immigration, a new AP-NORC poll shows.
Behind the scenes: New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman estimates 70% of the president's mindshare goes to renovations and monuments. "It's a legacy thing," she told her colleague Ezra Klein.
- A Trump insider told us: "He concentrates on the hobbies that distract from his terrible polling numbers, about which he is in denial. The other issue is how the war, tariffs and monuments are demoralizing the base."
- And we keep hearing complaints from top Republicans about Trump's reluctance to unleash the $400 million cache built by his super PAC, MAGA Inc. The unwillingness to spend big, now, in game-changing races has "demoralized donors," the insider said.
- There's a saying in politics that campaigns are won and lost in the summer. For Republicans, this was the Trump-induced summer of discontent.
The big picture: Our reporting shows Trump has no desire to back off any of these topics, especially renovations and monuments, or shift to a new policy agenda before or after the November elections.
- Ahead of the midterms, he has poured political capital into another self-destructive fixation: the SAVE America Act, which would impose national proof-of-citizenship and voter-ID requirements. Republicans have told Trump, repeatedly, that the bill has no path through the Senate. They lack the 60 votes needed to overcome a Democratic filibuster — and the 51 Republican votes needed to abolish it.
- Trump has refused to accept that reality, instead whipping the MAGA base into a frenzy against Senate Majority Leader John Thune and other Republicans who won't comply.
What to watch: Top congressional Republicans tell us Trump's unpopularity points toward the likely loss of the House, and perhaps the Senate. Some gently, indirectly, plead with him to shift to affordability or the economy.
- But an 80-year-old man who made the greatest comeback in American political history appears too proud, stubborn and undisciplined to change, Republicans privately admit.
- So rather than face the issues, Trump often pivots to showing visitors renderings of the new White House ballroom or a model of the planned Triumphal Arch. He showcases his new Air Force One, touts his plans for Dulles, and obsesses about the helipad being built on the South Lawn.
The bottom line: "Sixth-year summers are historically terrible for presidents," the insider said.
- Axios' Marc Caputo and Zachary Basu contributed reporting.
Go deeper: "Trump's final act," from Jim's political briefing for Axios C-Suite.
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