The Senate braces for a House wave

• At least five, and potentially as many as 13, current House members could become senators next year, though their paths vary widely.
• Competitive midterm races, retirements, primary challenges and senators running for governor have opened the door to fresh Senate blood.

Driving the news: Several GOP House members are in the mix to replace Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who died July 11, via a November special election.

• Reps. Russell Fry, Ralph Norman, Nancy Mace and Joe Wilson have either expressed interest in running for the seat or are viewed as potential candidates ahead of the Aug. 11 primary in reliably red South Carolina.

The intrigue: Some of the likeliest new senators are hardline GOP conservatives used to leveraging slim majorities, including Reps. Andy Barr (Ky.), Kevin Hern (Okla.) and Harriet Hageman (Wyo.).

• "Most incoming House members were active in [the conservative Republican Study Committee] when I chaired it, including Kevin Hern, who followed me as chair," Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) told Axios.
• "Hopefully, they get to the Senate and maintain their fervor from the House in wanting the Senate to move and act differently and help shake it up."

Zoom in: The members with some of the clearest paths to the Senate, in addition to Barr, Hern and Hageman, include:

• Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.)
• Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.)
• Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.)

What to watch: Other House members face tougher primaries, more competitive general elections, or both.

• In Iowa, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson has a clear advantage in the race to succeed outgoing GOP Sen. Joni Ernst, but Republicans will need to spend there.
• In Massachusetts, Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton would first have to unseat Sen. Ed Markey in the primary.
• In New Hampshire, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas would face a competitive general election against former Republican Sen. John Sununu.

Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) first has to win her primary against progressive Abdul El-Sayed. Then she would have to hold on to a battleground state against former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.)

• Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) faces a tough bid to unseat Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.).

• Both Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) and Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) have expressed interest in Sen. Marsha Blackburn's (R-Tenn.) seat if she is elected governor. Blackburn, as governor, could appoint her successor.

Bonus: There are also two recent, but former House members with shots at the Senate — Rogers in Michigan and Mary Peltola in Alaska.

What they're saying: Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah), who moved from the House to the Senate last cycle, notes how a single senator wields more power.

• "The structure forces engagement, requires listening and pushes ideas to be tested beyond a simple majority. Because of that, individual senators hold real power," he told Axios in a statement.
• "This is one of the clearest differences between the Senate and the House. In the House, power is centralized. Having served there, I saw how difficult it is for an individual member to shape major legislation."

The big picture: The House-to-Senate pipeline is common. Forty-four current senators were previously House members.

• In the 2024 election cycle, seven House members were elected to the Senate — Banks, Curtis, Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Andy Kim (D-N.J.) and Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.).
• In 2022, there were three: Peter Welch (D-Vt.) and Ted Budd (R-N.C.), as well as now-Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin, a Republican from Oklahoma.
• In 2020, there were just two: Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) and Roger Marshall (R-Kan.)