Updated Jun 28, 2025 - Politics & Policy
Thune's troublesome senators to watch
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Senate Majority Leader John Thune speaks with reporters following a Senate Republican lunch on June 27. Photo: Al Drago/Getty Images
Majority Leader John Thune wants to force an initial vote on the "big, beautiful bill" around 4pm ET — here is an update on the senators most likely to cause headaches.
Why it matters: Thune can only afford to lose three GOP senators and still manage to move forward with — and eventually pass — the bill, with a tie-breaking vote from Vice President JD Vance. It could be close.
The nos:
- Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has long been clear that he would vote against the package because it raises the debt ceiling. He is not one to fold — like, ever.
- Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) told reporters after a GOP lunch Saturday that he would vote "no" both on Saturday afternoon's initial procedural vote and on the final bill.
- He has concerns about how the Medicaid changes would impact his state, and he's up for re-election next year.
The question marks:
- Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah), Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) are coordinating and planning to vote as a conservative bloc.
- "We are waiting, among other things, to see how this scores," Lee told reporters on Saturday.
- Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) is no stranger to being a swing vote. She has raised concerns about the Medicaid measures in the bill, but has also managed to win Alaska-specific caveats and tax breaks, which could be enough to win her over.
- Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.) threatened to vote no to move forward if a public lands sale measure makes it into the bill, but then said he would vote yes — but will lead an amendment to strip that part of the bill. Several GOP senators are adamantly opposed to the provision.
The reluctant yeses:
- Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) is another frequent swing vote and is running for re-election next year in a blue state. She said she will vote yes to move forward, but is leaning toward "no" on final passage.
- Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) is also running for re-election next year and had been raising some concerns about the provider tax provision, but told reporters he was a "yes" on the motion to proceed and was "still reviewing" the overall bill.
- Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) told reporters Saturday that he plans to vote yes on both the procedural vote and bill passage, due to the newest text delaying the implementation of reduced Medicaid provider taxes.
- "I'm going to spend the next however long trying to make sure that the [Medicaid] cuts that we have successfully delayed never take place," he said.
Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting.
