Behind the scenes: How Israel and Iran nearly pulled Trump back to war

• Trump found himself in a dilemma. On the one hand, he understood it would be nearly impossible for his key ally Benjamin Netanyahu to let an Iranian missile attack go unanswered. On the other hand, he was concerned the tit-for-tat would lead to all-out war.
• Trump told Axios in a phone interview that he'd warned the Israeli prime minister if he went back to war with Iran, he might find himself fighting alone.

Driving the news: The escalation started on Sunday morning when Israel struck a Hezbollah target in Beirut.

• An Israeli source said the Israel Defense Forces notified CENTCOM ahead of the strike in Beirut, but not the White House. A U.S. official said Trump — who pulled the brakes on a similar planned Israeli attack during a tense call days earlier — was unhappy about the strike.
• Iran then launched missiles toward Israel, as it had vowed to do if Israel struck the Lebanese capital. Some in the IDF had believed that was an empty threat.

• From that point, things escalated quickly.

Behind the scenes: Trump called Netanyahu on Sunday evening and asked him not to retaliate, a U.S. official said.

• Trump argued that either he would get a deal with Iran in a few days that would make the strikes unnecessary, or he wouldn't — in which case he might lead the strikes on Iran, an Israeli source briefed on the call said.
• Two U.S. officials and a third Israeli source said that the call was much calmer than the one a few days earlier, when Trump called Netanyahu "f**king crazy."
• One U.S. official described the call as "polite," while a second U.S. official noted that "nobody shouted."

The other side: The Israeli source said Netanyahu argued that not responding to the Iranian attack would be bad for Israel, bad for the U.S. and bad for the deal Trump was trying to negotiate.

• His argument was that inaction would send the message that Iran has the upper hand and can deter the U.S. and Israel from taking military action.

Between the lines: The call ended without a clear decision from Netanyahu. Some U.S. officials who were on the call felt the president had managed to buy more time.

• Netanyahu, on the other hand, felt that while Trump was opposed to retaliatory strikes, "it was not a firm 'Don't,'" the Israeli source said.
• "There is no way Bibi could have interpreted what the president told him as an agreement. He was expressly told the president didn't support it, but he does what he does," a U.S. official said.

After meeting with his security chief and IDF commanders, Netanyahu informed the White House that he'd decided to proceed with strikes.

• Trump claimed in the interview that Israel "gave us very late notice" about Sunday's strikes. "They were already on their way. But eventually I had [the Israeli strike] limited," Trump said.
• An Israeli official confirmed that Netanyahu and other Israeli officials spoke to Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday night to reach an understanding over the targets that would be attacked.

Zoom in: Israel struck a key component in the biggest petrochemical facility in Iran and other targets in Tehran.

• That led Iran to launch a new barrage of missiles, this time toward Tel Aviv.
• Two more rounds of strikes and counterstrikes took place on Monday morning, bringing the situation perilously close to all-out war.
• While the U.S. military didn't participate in the Israeli attacks, it did help the IDF intercept incoming Iranian missiles, two U.S. defense officials said.

What he's saying: Trump told Axios he got calls from five different countries in the region asking him to press Netanyahu to stop.

• "These countries were very concerned. They love the deal that we have been negotiating," Trump said.
• Trump also claimed his administration received messages from the Iranians on Monday morning stating a willingness to stop shooting if Israel did the same.
• "They called us and said that they are not doing any more attacks and asked us to tell Israel not to do any more attacks," Trump said.

Friction point: Israel was preparing for the biggest wave of strikes on Iran since April, with dozens of sensitive targets to be attacked on Monday, according to two Israeli officials. Trump called Netanyahu and asked him to stop the strikes.

• "I said, 'Bibi, you better be careful, or you will be on your own very soon,'" Trump told Axios.
• An Israeli source said there were disagreements on the call but it ended with Netanyahu agreeing to stand down if the Iranians didn't attack.
• After the call, Netanyahu told his senior military commanders to cancel the strikes.

What to watch: During the interview, Trump claimed once again that Iran wants a deal and one could be signed soon — a claim he's made repeatedly during two months of ceasefire.

• "It is going to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and stop enrichment. It is a phenomenal deal. We are getting everything we wanted," Trump claimed.
• Iran's parliamentary speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, said Trump's recent claims about the draft memorandum of understanding contradicted what had been agreed upon, adding: "We have no trust in the other side."
• Ghalibaf also claimed Iran had managed to create new ground rules in Lebanon through diplomatic and military pressure. He said Iran's goal was to end the war, not to normalize relations with America.

The bottom line: U.S. and Israeli sources say the events of the last 24 hours are further proof that the strategic interests of the U.S. and Israel — and the political interests of Trump and Netanyahu — are diverging every day.

• "Bibi needs the war to continue to stay politically alive in Israel, and Trump needs the war to end to stay politically alive in the U.S," a U.S. official said.