Israel hits a low point with Democrats in Congress

• Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) told Axios he "cannot support more military assistance" to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying he has "supported Iron Dome in the past, but there doesn't seem to be any accountability."
• Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) told Axios he doesn't think that position is "wildly controversial in light of what the Israeli government has said for a long time."
• "I think many of us are in the place of saying, 'They have enough money to wage the wars they're doing, they don't need our money, period," said Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wisc.).

The intrigue: McGovern, Huffman and Pocan voted to fund Iron Dome in 2021, along with 207 of their Democratic colleagues and 210 Republicans.

• Just eight Democrats voted against the funding at the time, with two — including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) — voting "present."
• Ocasio-Cortez made headlines earlier this month by telling a Democratic Socialists of America meeting she "will never" vote for funding to Israel, later clarifying that her pledge includes defensive weaponry.
• Several other high-profile progressives such as New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and House hopeful Brad Lander — who is Jewish — have since followed suit, as has the influential progressive pro-Israel organization J Street.

What they're saying: "I've never seen public opinion change as fast on any issue, including gay marriage ... as it has on the U.S.-Israel relationship," said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.).

• Khanna, who also previously voted for Iron Dome funding but now opposes it, acknowledged Congress is a "lagging indicator" but said that "even here, [opinion on Israel] is slowly changing."
• Congressional Progressive Caucus chair Greg Casar (D-Texas) said that J Street's new position on Iron Dome funding is "pretty significant."
• Said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.): "People do not appreciate that Israel is just going to war whenever they want to go to war and then they expect that the United States is going to protect them with taxpayer dollars."

What we're hearing: Moderates and battleground-district Democrats are feeling the heat from voters and activists to take a harder line against Israel.

• "It's a problem for me in the primary," said one swing-district Democrat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to offer candid comments about their race.
• This lawmaker said of their anti-Israel primary challenger: "If this guy whittles away enough at my base where people are so pissed off about it that when they look at the congressional race they just don't vote — when you win by 10,000 votes, you need every f*cking vote."
• Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.), a staunch supporter of Israel, said his colleagues are "having to deal with it because of what's happening on social media and people coming up to them all day with, 'say it's a genocide, say it's a genocide.' So, yeah, they feel pressure."

Between the lines: While Democrats have been growing alienated from Israel since even before the Israel-Hamas war, U.S. involvement in Iran has taken the issue out of the realm of detached foreign policy and made it a more high-salience topic with real ramifications for American voters.

• "More than anything, the Iran war has probably been the issue," the anonymous House Democrat said.

• "That's the bigger issue because you have people like 'why are we in this f*cking war?' And all lines lead to Netanyahu."

Even Netanyahu himself, Frost noted, has said he wants to "taper off" U.S. military assistance to Israel over the next decade.

• "When I heard him say that, I knew that that opinion would be pushed more into the mainstream," the Florida Democrat said.

The other side: Other House Democrats told Axios they are not willing to take the step of calling to wind down U.S. funding for Iron Dome.

• "I'm not prepared to go that far," said Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), a Jewish progressive who nevertheless told Axios that Netanyahu's leadership has brought Israel's relationship with Democrats to a really bad place.
• Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.), the Jewish chair of the center-left New Democrat Coalition, said he "never understood" J Street's thinking and that "Israel's security is important to American security."
• "The United States has benefitted from every investment we've made in joint programs like Iron Dome, Arrow and David's Sling ... you can't reduce it to a simple pledge," he said.

What to watch: This issue is playing out in real time in Democratic congressional primaries across the country, with AIPAC spending millions trying to boost pro-Israel moderates and sink even liberal Zionists who have criticized Israel.

• They have fallen short in some cases, with Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss prevailing despite a $4 million AIPAC investment on behalf of one of his pro-Israel opponents.
• The decision to spend against J Street types could be one the pro-Israel group comes to regret, predicted Pocan: "They just made Daniel Biss one of the most articulate spokespeople against their cause."

The bottom line: Netanyahu wants Israel to "taper off" U.S. military funding within 10 years, he told the Economist in January.