Iran talks show glimmer of progress as Trump deadline looms
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Vice President JD Vance. Photo: Janos Kummer/Getty Images
Progress has been made in the past 24 hours in the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, though reaching a ceasefire deal by President Trump's 8pm ET deadline still looks like a long shot, according to a U.S. official, an Israeli official and two other sources with knowledge of the talks.
- A U.S. official said the thinking in the White House has shifted from "can we get there?" to "can we get there by 8 o'clock tonight?"
Why it matters: Failure to reach a deal by the deadline —or at least make enough progress to convince Trump to extend it— would lead to an unprecedented escalation in the war.
Driving the news: Trump threatened to destroy Iran's bridges and power plants if Iran did not agree to open the Strait of Hormuz, and has mentioned other targets like oil and water infrastructure.
- "A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will," Trump wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday morning.
- Iran says it would retaliate against energy and water facilities in the Gulf states.
- The key challenges at the moment are meeting Iran's demand for a strong guarantee that the U.S. and Israel won't just resume the war after a pause, and the slow pace of responses from Iranian leadership due to the security situation, sources say.
The latest: The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran had cut off direct communication due to Trump's threats, while the New York Times reported that Iran was walking away from negotiations. Iran's state-run Tehran Times denied the reports. Axios has not confirmed any move by Iran to sever talks.
- Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said only Trump knows "where things stand and what he will do," adding: "The Iranian regime has until 8PM Eastern Time to meet the moment and make a deal with the United States."
State of play: Over the last two weeks, the U.S. and Iran have been exchanging proposals and counter-proposals through Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators.
- Vice President Vance, White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner are all involved in the negotiations.
- Witkoff also has a direct channel of communication with Iranian officials including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
Behind the scenes: Iran sent a counter-proposal to the U.S. via the mediators on Monday. While it was incompatible with the U.S. positions, the White House actually saw it as somewhat encouraging, according to a U.S. official and another source with knowledge.
- "The last proposal we got wasn't really what we wanted, but it was a lot better than we expected," the U.S. official said.
- The mediators then worked with the Iranians on amendments and redrafting, a source familiar with that process said.
Zoom in: The main option under discussion is a set of confidence-building measures by both Iran and the U.S. focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and in exchange for guarantees on ending the war.
- A 45-day ceasefire to allow negotiations on a broader deal is also being discussed.
- "Everything is wrapped together. There is definitely ceasefire talk," a U.S. official said.
- On Tuesday morning, before he published his threatening post, Trump told his close confidants that negotiations with the Iranians were "very serious" but he didn't know if a deal could be reached.
- "The mediators are pushing very hard. Talks are serious. We will wait for the Iranian decision," one source with knowledge said.
Between the lines: According to another source, there has been renewed discussion about a possible in-person meeting between a U.S. delegation led by Vance and an Iranian delegation.
- "There's an appetite for more talks. Last week it was Geneva, this week it could be Islamabad," a U.S. official said.
- There have also been discussions about a virtual meeting between the U.S. and Iranian negotiating teams along with Pakistani mediators.
What to watch: Negotiations are expected to continue over the next several hours until Trump's deadline expires, sources said.
- Vance said at a press conference in Budapest that the U.S. has accomplished almost all if its military objectives and "very shortly the war is going to conclude."
- "The ball is in Iran's court. The Iranians are not the fastest negotiators...but we feel confident we can get a response from the Iranians by 8pm. We hope it is the right response," Vance said.
