Trump's mixed messages on Iran perplex his own team
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President Trump isn't just befuddling foreign leaders and financial markets with his mixed signals on Iran. Advisers who speak regularly with the president tell Axios they're just as uncertain.
Why it matters: Trump's off-the-cuff musings and Truth Social postings can have life-or-death consequences for the war, and massive implications for the market. Then the cycle restarts without any lasting clarity.
Between the lines: Some Trump aides and allies say he's mostly improvising rather than following any clear plan.
- He likes to keep his options open, spitball with different audiences, then capitalize if he thinks he sees an opportunity, they say.
- Aides have been convinced at various points that Trump was leaning toward a major escalation, and at others that he was eager for a swift resolution. "Nobody knows in the end what he's really thinking," a senior adviser said.
- "They had a plan for the first week and since then, they are making the plan up as they go along," a former U.S. official said.
Others claim it's all by design. "That's the plan — for you to not have a clue," Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who spoke to Trump on Monday, told Axios.
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday, when asked why Trump was dangling a potential ground invasion: "The point is to be unpredictable ... certainly not let anybody know what you're willing to do or not do."
- Another administration official claimed: "This isn't 3D chess — it's 12-dimensional. He contradicts himself regularly, so nobody knows what he's thinking. It's on purpose."
Driving the news: It's becoming clearer, at least for now, that Trump intends to withdraw and declare victory soon — in the next "two-three weeks," as he put it on Tuesday.
- He's mused repeatedly in recent days about how the U.S. has won, and what an exit would look like.
In private, though, Trump is talking more to hawks like Graham and conservative commentator Mark Levin than longtime confidants who oppose escalation.
- Leaders in Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are also worried about the idea of Trump wrapping up and leaving the regime in Tehran battered but emboldened.
- "The Saudis sound like Mark Levin," one Trump adviser said. "They want the U.S. to finish the job by wiping Iran off the globe now. We don't want to."
State of play: Trump is discussing exit strategies — including potentially leaving with the Strait of Hormuz closed and without a deal in place — while simultaneously massing additional forces in the region, including the makings of an invasion force.
- "He doesn't want to do boots on the ground," one of his advisers said. "And when he doesn't want to do something, he goes to great lengths not to do it. ... Of course that's the kiss of death, when you think you can predict him."
- Some U.S. officials think that if Trump's April 6 deadline approaches with no deal, Trump will inflict a "final blow" of heavy bombing on Iranian infrastructure and nuclear facilities, then withdraw.
What to watch: With it becoming clear Iran's missile and drone capacity won't be entirely destroyed, one option that has emerged is "mowing the grass" — or conducting strikes as needed after heavy combat dies down.
- "The president said early on we might have to come back," another administration official said. "And we might have to."
- "If we have to mow the lawn again, the grass won't be nearly as tall next time," the official said.
What's next: Trump will address the nation on Iran at 9pm ET on Wednesday — yet another chance to provide clarity.
