Trump mulls risky Kharg Island takeover to force Iran to open strait

• But an operation to take over Kharg Island, which sits 15 miles offshore and processes 90% of Iran's crude oil exports, could put U.S. troops more directly in the line of fire.
• Thus, such an operation would only be launched after the U.S. military further degrades Iran's military capacity around the Strait of Hormuz. "We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, take the island and then get them by the balls and use it for negotiations," a source with knowledge of the White House thinking said.
• Such an operation, if approved, would also require more troops. Three different Marine units are on their way to the region. The White House and the Pentagon are considering sending even more troops soon, a U.S. official said.

What they're saying: "He wants Hormuz open. If he has to take Kharg Island to make it happen, that's going to happen. If he decides to have a coastal invasion, that's going to happen. But that decision hasn't been made," a senior administration official told Axios.

• "We've always had boots on the ground in conflicts under every president, including Trump. I know this is a fixation in the media, and I get the politics, but the president is going to do what's right," a second senior official said, adding no decision had been made.
• Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Trump had been "prudent" not to rule out a ground invasion, though he wouldn't say whether he was in favor.
• Cotton contended that closing the strait was an act of desperation by Iran, but said Trump had "mountains of plans" for that contingency.

The flip side: While Kharg Island is critical to Iran's oil industry, there's no guarantee that taking it would convince Tehran to make peace on Trump's terms.

• Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery told Axios such a mission could expose U.S. troops to an unnecessary degree of risk given the uncertain upside.
• "If we seize Kharg Island, they're going to turn off the spigot on the other end. It's not like we control their oil production," he said.
• Montgomery said it was more likely that after around two more weeks of attacks to degrade Iran's capabilities, the U.S. would send destroyers and aircraft into the strait to escort tankers, eliminating the need for an invasion.

Flashback: Trump originally wanted to end the war before his planned trip to China at the end of March.

• The crisis in the strait has compelled him to postpone that trip and continue the war longer than he'd planned, two sources with knowledge said.

Last Friday, the U.S. military conducted massive airstrikes on dozens of military targets on Kharg Island.

• The strike was a "shot across the bow" to convince the Iranians to reopen the strait, U.S. officials said. But it was also a preparatory step to degrade Iran's military capabilities on the island and lay the groundwork for a potential ground operation.
• "We can take out the island anytime we want. I call it the little island that sits there so totally unprotected. We've taken out everything but the pipes. We left the pipes because to rebuild the pipes would take years for them," Trump said on Thursday.
• Trump also told reporters on Thursday that he was "not putting troops anywhere," though he added: "If I were, I certainly wouldn't tell you."

Behind the scenes: Three sources said an occupation of the island by ground troops is under serious consideration.

• Another option is to impose a naval blockade and prevent tankers from reaching the island.
• One source said Pentagon lawyers had even been consulted to provide opinions on the legality of such potential moves.

What's next: In addition to the 2,500-strong Marine expeditionary force that will arrive within days, two more similarly sized units are also heading to the region.

• The White House and Pentagon are discussing further reinforcements beyond that, but no decision has been made. Newsmax and Reuters first reported on the reinforcement plans.
• One source cautioned that there are many potential operations for the Marines beyond Kharg Island, such as evacuating staff from embassies in the region if necessary.