Under threat, Iraqi Kurds resist pressure to join Iran war

• "The Kurds must not be the tip of the spear in this conflict," a senior Iraqi Kurdish government official told Axios.

Zoom in: Iraq's Kurdish government, which rules a semiautonomous region in the north of the country, prides itself on talking to both sides. But Iran's government changed its otherwise friendly tone Friday in a communique about Iranian Kurdish militants across the border.

• "Should their continued presence and plotting be permitted, or should these groups or [Zionist] regime elements enter the borders of the Islamic Republic through the Region, all facilities of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq...will be targeted on a massive scale," Ali Akbar Ahmadian, an Iranian Defense Council official, said in a written statement.
• The council called the Iraqi Kurdish government to draw attention to the post.
• "They don't need hypersonic missiles to hurt us. 200 Shahed drones could cause a lot of damage here. We have no air defense systems. We don't have any ways to knock these things out of the skies," the official said.

Zoom out: Trump has sent multiple signals about what he wants to see unfold in Iran. He has called for regime change in Iran but hasn't communicated what that looks like.

• "Certainly, we are staying neutral as Iraqi Kurds because there is no clarity for us on what the US policy is. Is it full regime change? Or just a change in personnel?" the Kurdish official said.
• "Our assessment is there cannot be regime change without boots on the ground, and our assessment is that the U.S. is not sending boots on the ground."
• Trump spoke to two Iraqi Kurdish leaders after launching the war Saturday but did not try to get their support for an invasion.

Between the lines: Though Israel and the U.S. are attacking together, their interests and activities in Iran and Iraq diverge in places.

• "Israel is far more aggressive on this, both on the on the military side of it, but also in terms of pushing Iranian Kurds or encouraging Iranian Kurds to be part of this war," said the official, who added that he saw no evidence of U.S. efforts to arm or incite Kurds to attack Iran.
• "Israel wants an annihilation of the current order in Iran and they will not stop until that happens. It's very existential ... I can't see them accepting Regime Lite," the official said. I can see the United States accepting Regime Lite ... Venezuela Plus."
• Amir Karimi, a co-chair of the Kurdish-Iranian Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK) told Axios that armed members are already inside Iran. But they won't rise up if they don't get U.S. backing.

"In the past, two major uprisings were not supported, which allowed the regime to prolong its survival," Karimi said, noting that his group is contact with U.S. officials but not the Israeli government or its Mossad spy agency.

The intrigue: Yet another source, an official with the Iraqi Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP), told Axios that so far the Iraqi armed forces called the Peshmerga were able to stop Kurdish-Iranian militias from launching an offensive from Iraq into Iran.

• Iraqi Kurdish leaders decided to stay neutral in the war for now, partially because they are concerned that at some point the U.S. might abandon them, that source said.
• "We have trust issues from the past and we don't want to get involved. Who is going to defend us if the Iranian regime ends up surviving this?", the source said.
• The Iranian Kurds inside Iraq are not as "battle-hardened" as their brethren who have fought in Syria and lack the military training, numbers and equipment to mount an effective invasion force, Iraqi Kurds say.

What's next: Iraqi Kurdish officials say they expect Trump could pull out of Iran in the coming weeks.

• Trump could measure success by the four goals he laid out Saturday for the U.S. military to destroy Iran's navy, missile program, terrorist proxies and nuclear-war ambitions.
• But he leaves office in two years.
• "The Iranians have thousands of years of built up patience," one of the Kurdish officials said. "They know that in a couple of years, there might be a new president in the United States, and who knows what's going to happen in Israel. And their goal right now is to outlast this."