JD or Marco? Trump asking advisers about 2028
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Photo illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios. Photos: Kevin Dietsch, Bloomberg, Patrick Smith via Getty Images
President Trump has a new parlor game he's springing on advisers and confidants: JD Vance or Marco Rubio?
- That is, do people favor the vice president or secretary of state to sit atop the GOP ticket to succeed him in 2028? Trump asks casually, but increasingly, several sources tell us.
Why it matters: Trump is focused on his legacy as his last midterm elections approach, and he believes there are no better standard bearers for it than Vance and Rubio.
Trump favors Vance. It's why he chose him as a running mate.
- But Trump has notably and increasingly praised Rubio, in public and private, for his rising profile as secretary of state and national security adviser.
Behind the scenes: Trump enjoys gossiping, revels in playing people off of one another, and freely airs private musings. All five sources who spoke with Axios and relayed Trump's discussions with them cautioned against interpreting this as Trump souring on Vance.
- "Vance-Rubio is the president's dream ticket" for 2028 — "and to be clear, that's Vance on top," said a Trump adviser whom the president recently asked to share opinions about the top of the ticket.
- "But would Trump be happy with a Rubio-Vance ticket? Absolutely," the source said.
Zoom in: Vance has political advisers who, if he runs as widely expected, would form the backbone of a 2028 presidential campaign. Rubio lacks that infrastructure — and has made clear he's fine with Vance being the guy.
- "If JD Vance runs for president, he's going to be our nominee, and I'll be one of the first people to support him," Rubio told Vanity Fair last year.
- Rubio's posture hasn't changed. A source said Rubio has communicated that to Vance privately.
- The men are close friends and served together in the Senate — as did their chiefs of staff, who are also friends.
Zoom out: Trump last year made clear that Vance is "most likely" his heir apparent because, "in all fairness, he's the vice president."
- But Trump added that his preference is for Rubio to "get together with JD" on the ballot.
- Advisers say Trump won't fully commit to a successor because he wants his team to think about their current jobs — and he doesn't want to look like he's losing power.
Between the lines: Vance has a major disadvantage compared to Rubio when it comes to Trump's style of thinking — their jobs, which place Rubio in the news far more than Vance. And Trump consumes news ravenously.
- Rubio's twin responsibilities place him at the center of global affairs (as secretary of state) and the White House (as national security adviser).
- The vice presidency, by contrast, has no clear portfolio.
And that's part of the problem for Rubio, according to those who know his thinking about 2028: It would be hard to go from his two high-impact jobs to vice president.
- Trump knows this, and some advisers theorize that one reason he constantly elevates Rubio is to entice him to run with Vance.
- "Marco, you really did yourself proud two days ago in Munich. In fact, so proud that I almost terminated his employ, because they were saying, 'Why can't Trump do this?' I do, but I say it differently," Trump said Thursday while hosting the first meeting of his Board of Peace.
- "But, Marco, don't do any better than you did, please. Because if you do, you're outta here," Trump joked.
Inside the room: At the meeting, Trump described Rubio as more of the diplomat, and Vance as the pugilist.
- "He gets a little bit tough on occasion; we gotta slow him down on occasion," Trump said of Vance.
- "Then we have the opposite extreme," Trump said, pivoting to Vance's "best friend," Rubio. "Marco does it with a velvet glove. But it's a kill."
By the numbers: In early polling of the 2028 GOP primary, Vance is also well ahead of Rubio and any other Republican.
- A University of New Hampshire survey of first-in-the-nation primary voters released Thursday showed Vance with 53% of the theoretical vote and Rubio with only 7%. Former Ambassador Nikki Haley polled marginally hired than the secretary, at 9%.
- Every national primary poll shows Vance with a giant lead over Rubio or any other Republican.
What's next: Expect to see more of Vance in the public eye as the midterms heat up. He's finance chair at the Republican National Committee, and he's planning to barnstorm the country to help Republicans' efforts to keep control of the House in November.
- "Marco is my closest friend in the administration," Vance told Fox News' Martha MacCallum on "The Story" on Tuesday. " ... I think it's so interesting the media wants to create this conflict where there just isn't any conflict."
