Trump and Netanyahu agree to increase pressure on Iranian oil

• This could change Iran's calculus and push it to make more concessions regarding its nuclear program.
• U.S. officials say the maximum pressure campaign will take place alongside the nuclear talks with Iran and the ongoing military build-up in the Middle East for possible strikes if diplomacy fails.

What they're saying: "We agreed that we will go full force with maximum pressure against Iran, for example, regarding Iranian oil sales to China," a senior U.S. official said.

Zoom in: An executive order signed by Trump 10 days ago will allow the U.S. to increase the economic pressure on Iran.

• The executive order gives the secretary of State and the secretary of Commerce the possibility to recommend that the president impose tariffs of up to 25% on any country that conducts business with Iran.

Friction point: Any tariffs on China for buying Iranian oil would complicate what is already a tense relationship, with the U.S. trying to preserve the flow of vital rare earth magnets and protect a planned April summit in Beijing.

• And while Iran is a major oil producer, markets are more concerned about regional disruptions if the Iranians took action to interrupt the flow of oil from other countries.

Behind the scenes: U.S. officials said Netanyahu and Trump agreed in their meeting on Wednesday about the necessary end state — an Iran without the capability to obtain nuclear weapons.

• But they disagreed about the way to get there. Netanyahu told Trump it is impossible to make a good deal with Iran and claimed that even if a deal is signed, Iran will not abide by it, a U.S. official said.
• The U.S. official said Trump told Netanyahu he thinks there is a chance to reach a deal with Iran.
• "We'll see if it's possible. Let's give it a shot", Trump said according the the U.S. official.

In recent days, Trump asked his advisers Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner what are the odds for reaching a deal with Iran.

• A U.S. official said Witkoff and Kushner told Trump that history shows it is difficult, if not impossible, to reach a good deal with Iran.
• But they also told Trump that so far, the Iranians are saying all the right things.

• Kushner and Witkoff told Trump they will continue the negotiations and hold a tough line, and if the Iranians agree to a deal they think is satisfactory, they will give him the option so that he can decide if he wants to do it, a U.S. official said.

What's next: On Tuesday, Witkoff and Kushner will meet the Iranians in Geneva for a second round of negotiations.

• Earlier this week, Witkoff conveyed messages to the Iranians through the Omani foreign minister. The U.S. expects to receive an Iranian response at the meeting in Geneva.
• "We are sober and realistic about the Iranians. The ball is in their court. If it is not a real deal, we will not take it," a U.S. official said.
• A second U.S. official said he thinks there is "zero chance" that Iran agrees to anything the U.S. proposes or vice versa.

What to watch: Iranian journalist Ali Gholhaki wrote on X that Witkoff's messages included a U.S. proposal that Iran suspend its uranium enrichment for three to five years. After this period, Iran would allegedly be able to enrich Uranium to very low levels.

• The alleged proposal also reportedly included the removal of 450 kilograms of highly enriched Uranium the Iranians currently have outside of the country.
• The Iranian reporter claimed this proposal has been rejected by Iran.
• A U.S. official denied that the U.S. presented such a proposal to the Iranians.

Go deeper: U.S. and Iran set to hold second round of nuclear talks in Geneva