"Everything is gambling now": How betting is taking over America
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Illustration: Maura Kearns/Axios
Gambling culture is enveloping American sports, politics, media and trading, bringing betting out of the shadows and into the mainstream in a way that disturbs some and exhilarates others.
Why it matters: What was once a fringe vice is fast becoming a mass-market habit — raising urgent questions about addiction, fairness and who should regulate the business of betting on almost anything.
"Wanna bet on that?" That age-old contemplation has become more realistic than ever with the explosion of online sportsbooks and prediction markets.
- These days, you can wager on everything from Sunday's Super Bowl LX, November's midterm elections, March's Oscars, this winter's weather, the words that commentators will use — even the second coming of Jesus Christ.
The big picture: The American Gaming Association projects that $1.7 billion will be legally wagered on the Super Bowl between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots.
- News media orgs like CNBC, CNN, Yahoo Finance and Dow Jones have struck partnerships to showcase prediction market data to viewers and readers.
- And businesses that have long hedged risks like weather with financial derivatives are now eyeing event contracts to do the same — just as those bets are opened to anyone with a phone and marketed in a gambling wrapper.
What they're saying: "It seems like everything is gambling now, and the appetite for gambling on the most obscure stuff is pretty bonkers," Danny Funt, author of the new book "Everybody Loses: The Tumultuous Rise of American Sports Gambling," tells Axios. "This is seemingly reaching new levels."
- The entire activity has become "normalized," he adds. "This used to be something people did discreetly."
The intrigue: Now, even news orgs, through visible partnerships, are hoping to "make our audience hooked on our news because they want to have an edge in their betting," Funt says.
- Prediction markets meanwhile, say they're providing a service. "If you're somebody that reads the news very closely and you may have an informed position or informed point of view, you can now express yourself on a position," Toni Gemayel, Coinbase's head of prediction markets, tells Axios.
State of play: Online sportsbooks took off after 2018, kicking off a shift that fundamentally changed gambling culture in the U.S.
- The newest catalyst is the emergence of prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi.
- They're available in all 50 states, giving Americans the chance to risk money on nearly any event for big, medium and small payouts.
Threat level: Watchdogs say the billowing nature of America's gambling culture poses a serious problem for public health and sports integrity.
- The introduction of online sportsbooks has triggered a 23% increase in online searches about gambling addiction, according to a study published in JAMA Internal Medicine in February 2025 by researchers at the University of California San Diego Qualcomm Institute and School of Medicine.
- "It's easier to hide from other people," Jaime Costello, director of programs for the National Council on Problem Gambling, tells Axios. "I could literally be gambling right now on my phone and you would have no idea."
- And several recent scandals have exposed the vulnerability of professional and collegiate sports to manipulation via gambling, including college basketball, the NBA and MLB.
Friction point: Sportsbooks say that they are best positioned to ensure that gambling culture doesn't harm individuals or competitive integrity.
- "We are required to actively monitor betting patterns and blow the whistle when something doesn't look right," BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt tells Axios. "This concept of 'see something, say something'— that's very pervasive in the regulated world."
- But prediction markets criticize sportsbooks for limiting the amount that successful bettors can win and for profiting when customers lose.
- Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan told Axios in November that conventional sportsbooks are a "scam." Prediction markets, on the other hand, facilitate peer-to-peer transactions, advocates contend.
Legal and regulatory questions
Greenblatt argues that prediction markets should not be allowed to provide sports event contracts outside of the conventional state gaming commission licensing and oversight.
- "They pay no state taxes, there are no consumer protections, there are no penalties for underage play," he says.
- And critics say individuals — possibly including insiders in some cases — are capitalizing on specific news knowledge by profiting from events like national security developments, such as the recent capture of Nicolás Maduro.
What we're watching: Will the American judicial system block prediction markets from continuing their expansion of betting culture?
- "This interplay between regulated sports betting and the sports prediction markets is going to come to a head at some point," Greenblatt says.
- One former staffer of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission — which recently signaled plans to exert its authority to regulate event contracts as a federal agency — tells Axios that the debate will likely end up at the Supreme Court.
- Several major sportsbooks, including DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics, aren't waiting around to find out. They've already formed prediction markets of their own, providing them largely in states where they don't have regulated sports gambling.
The bottom line: The era of online gambling prohibition increasingly feels like ancient times.
