Supreme Court's tariff decision may not bring much clarity
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A Supreme Court decision on the legality of President Trump's tariffs is expected soon, but it isn't likely to bring much certainty to business leaders watching White House economic policy.
Why it matters: There are still multiple policies — including about trade — causing headaches for business leaders in 2026.
Where it stands: Since the new year, the administration has floated limiting credit card interest rates, prohibiting institutional investors from buying homes, and banning stock buybacks and limiting executive pay for defense contractors.
- Leaders are trying to "keep up with rapidly moving curveballs" that affect how their businesses operate, per a piece from consulting firm Korn Ferry.
- "It's unprecedented," says Kate Shattuck, a managing partner.
The latest: Trump certainly isn't waiting around for the court's ruling. Over the weekend, he threatened more tariffs on eight NATO allies unless a deal is reached for the U.S. to "purchase" Greenland.
State of play: American CEOs are just sitting tight to wait and see what happens in several arenas, says Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, the nonprofit business group that counts many of these leaders as members.
- Chief executives in the U.S. reported higher levels of uncertainty than their global peers, in a Conference Board survey released earlier this week.
Flashback: In 2024, Peterson says they warned execs about the potential policy disruptions of a Trump administration — around trade and immigration.
- But optimism was high about other issues, particularly the prospect of deregulation after years of stricter rules, and tax cuts. So in 2025, some Trump policies were surprising for them, she says.
- "The surprises are continuing even now," she adds.
Between the lines: If the Supreme Court rules that the president doesn't have the authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, to set tariffs, there are still many other levers the White House can pull to raise import taxes.
Zoom in: Indeed, the administration has continued to impose levies through slower, more process-intensive channels.
- Just last week, Trump announced highly anticipated tariffs on semiconductors, though the measure was much narrower than previously threatened.
- The tariffs largely applied to chips imported by Nvidia, part of a broader deal to allow the company to sell products in China.
The intrigue: The White House warned that Trump "in the near future ... may impose broader tariffs on imports," as well as an offset program that encourages domestic manufacturing.
- In the Biden era, such Section 232 investigations ended on a more definitive note. In the Trump era, they appear more open-ended — raising the possibility of more, or higher tariffs at any moment.
What they're saying: "Industry leaders have the certainty that, as long President Trump is in office, they have a pro-growth and pro-business ally in the White House who will never compromise on putting Americans and America First," White House spokesman Kush Desai tells Axios.
The bottom line: The one certainty is that uncertainty will continue.
